🏦 A politicized Fed withholds the rate cuts the data justifies

Chamath rates w=0.88 · n=16 · E231 (2025-06-13) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:07:29 SUPPORT

“So then you ask yourself, well, hold on a second, if the numerical justification is there, to lower rates and it has all of these other positive externalities for the United States economy, why don't I do it? The only answer is political.”

Sacks rates w=1.08 · n=12 · E231 (2025-06-13) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:11:11 SUPPORT POLICY-ADJACENT

“So now, if you're a pal, you've got PTSD from that whole experience, and you're going to err on the side of not letting inflation come back. I think with inflation down to 2.4%, I think it is time to cut rates, but he's fearful because, again, his incentives are to be a Volcker, not a Burns.”

Tucker Carlson (guest ×0.5) no rates track record · E231 (2025-06-13) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:05:37 SUPPORT

“Do I think the Fed chairman who lives in Chevy Chase is a political actor? Are you serious?”

Sacks rates w=1.08 · n=12 · E233 (2025-06-28) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:25:06 SUPPORT POLICY-ADJACENT

“I think inflation has largely been licked. And it's time to start lowering interest rates. And that will be good for the economy. There's no reason for rates to be as high as they are. It'll also be good in terms of financing our debt.”

Chamath rates w=0.88 · n=16 · E233 (2025-06-28) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:28:30 SUPPORT

“Rates should not be where they are today. They should be 50 to 100 basis points lower, period. It's categorical.”

Gavin Baker (regular guest ×1.0) rates: 2 resolved, unproven · E236 (2025-07-19) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 6:46 OPPOSE

“Firing Powell, I worry that the market only went down 1%. I do think the market would go down quite a bit more if Trump did fire Powell. I think it would be a mistake. I hope he doesn't do it. And you know, there are very sound reasons for the Federal Reserve to be independent.”

Friedberg rates w=0.79 · n=14 · E236 (2025-07-19) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 8:57 OPPOSE

“I think what the market is saying is it's not as much about Jerome Powell, and frankly, getting rid of a prudent individual may be more challenging than it is beneficial when the real challenges facing the United States need to be more heartily addressed.”

Chamath rates w=0.88 · n=16 · E237 (2025-08-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:05:20 SUPPORT

“So why does the Fed not cut? Because at this point, not cutting is the only thing that you can do to slow the Trump administration down going into the midterms, if you wanted to politicize the job.”

Friedberg rates w=0.79 · n=14 · E237 (2025-08-01) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:08:50 OPPOSE

“It kind of provides a little bit of the support for the economists that are saying we should keep rates steady because if we are seeing a significant inflationary effect here, it's worth noting that there's something that we need to be thoughtful about.”

Jason rates w=0.86 · n=7 · E237 (2025-08-01) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:10:13 OPPOSE

“I think the Fed now is in a position where cutting rates seems like putting kerosene on the fire.”

Ben Shapiro (regular guest ×1.0) rates: 2 resolved, unproven · E238 (2025-08-09) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:13:50 OPPOSE

“and that's when you will see the Federal Reserve step in and lower those interest rates in order to sort of artificially juice the economy”