📈 Government service providers get DOGE'd in 2025
Anyone with >35% of revenue from the US government — service providers, cost-plus contractors, and the consulting complex (Accenture, Cognizant, Wipro, Tata) — gets scrutinized and squeezed as DOGE audits the bill.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 74.8 GREEN
EMBER
band
▼ SHORT BAH
expression · bearish equities
HIT
outcome · R +33.6% · α +17.6%
2026-01-04
window closed
also touching these tickers, same direction: DOGE delivers real federal spending cuts under unified Republican control 16 (BAH)
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT BAH (primary play). BAH fell 33.6% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +33.6% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +16.1%
→ α = +33.6 − (+16.1) = +17.6%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
Stock-selection read: +49.8% — did BAH move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
- Rule fired:
▶ HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5 ✓ (R 33.6, α 17.6)· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0· MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a HIT earn 1.0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Gavin Baker, Jason, Joe Lonsdale
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2025-01-04)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | BAH | stock | PRIMARY | Booz Allen — the archetypal >35%-government-revenue services firm |
| ▼ SHORT | ACN | stock | adjacent | Accenture — named in the consulting pile-on |
Mention log
Gavin Baker
(regular guest ×1.0)
equities w=1.33 · n=9
· E209 (2025-01-04) · annual_prediction · strength 2
▶ 39:27
SUPPORT
· horizon 12mo
“Government service providers. You do not want to have the United States government at any level as over 35% of your revenue.”
Chamath
equities w=0.84 · n=160
· E209 (2025-01-04) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 42:16
SUPPORT
· horizon 12mo
“Would you add the traditional consulting companies to the mix? The Wipros, the Tatas, the HCLs, the Accentures, Cognizants... all in real trouble... Cost-plus is a fancier way of saying human labor arbitrage. All of that stuff will get extremely scrutinized in 2025.”
Chamath
equities w=0.84 · n=160
· E213 (2025-01-31) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 1:19:27
SUPPORT
“But both of them will pale in comparison to the third layer of this onion, which is the IT and the services and the spend. And what I mean by that is when you read how the department is set up, at the center and nucleus of every single one of these DOGE teams is an engineer. And I think the reason is that they can get into these systems of record and start to trace where the money is going.”
AN
Antonio Gracias
(guest ×0.5)
no equities track record
· E214 (2025-02-07) · positioning · strength 2
▶ 24:14
SUPPORT
“we literally have a rule here, government payor in those areas, if it's more than like a third of the business, we don't do it. And in the services space, this is why we found continuous fraud in the companies we're looking at investing in.”
JO
Joe Lonsdale
(regular guest ×1.0)
equities: 4 resolved, unproven
· E218 (2025-03-08) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 18:52
SUPPORT
“Let's take a million workers out of the consulting class around DC, out of the paper pusher class around DC, and let's actually deploy them to the actual productive economy.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -73.1 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E209 2025-01-04 | init | +53.3 | 53.3 | E209 born by Gavin Baker (annual_prediction x2) [w=1.33] |
| E209 2025-01-04 | reinforce | +8.8 | 62.1 | E209 Chamath support x2 (new voice) [w=0.84] |
| E210 2025-01-11 | decay | -2.5 | 59.6 | E210 silent |
| E211 2025-01-18 | decay | -2.4 | 57.3 | E211 silent |
| E212 2025-01-25 | decay | -2.3 | 55.0 | E212 silent |
| E213 2025-01-31 | reinforce | +6.8 | 61.8 | E213 Chamath support x3 [w=0.84] |
| E214 2025-02-07 | reinforce | +4.3 | 66.1 | E214 Antonio Gracias support x2 (new voice) [w=0.50] |
| E215 2025-02-15 | decay | -2.6 | 63.4 | E215 silent |
| E216 2025-02-21 | decay | -2.5 | 60.9 | E216 silent |
| E217 2025-03-01 | decay | -2.4 | 58.4 | E217 silent |
| E218 2025-03-08 | reinforce | +9.4 | 67.8 | E218 Joe Lonsdale support x2 (new voice) |
| E218 2025-03-08 | reinforce | +7.0 | 74.8 | E218 Jason support x2 (new voice) [w=0.97] |
| E219 2025-03-15 | decay | -3.0 | 71.8 | E219 silent |
| E220 2025-03-22 | decay | -2.9 | 69.0 | E220 silent |
| E221 2025-03-29 | decay | -2.8 | 66.2 | E221 silent |
| E222 2025-04-05 | decay | -2.6 | 63.6 | E222 silent |
| E223 2025-04-11 | decay | -2.5 | 61.0 | E223 silent |
| E224 2025-04-19 | decay | -2.4 | 58.6 | E224 silent |
| E225 2025-04-26 | decay | -2.3 | 56.2 | E225 silent |
| E226 2025-05-02 | decay | -2.2 | 54.0 | E226 silent |
| E227 2025-05-09 | decay | -2.2 | 51.8 | E227 silent |
| E228 2025-05-17 | decay | -2.1 | 49.8 | E228 silent |
| E229 2025-05-24 | decay | -2.0 | 47.8 | E229 silent |
| E231 2025-06-13 | decay | -1.9 | 45.9 | E231 silent |
| E232 2025-06-21 | decay | -1.8 | 44.0 | E232 silent |
| E233 2025-06-28 | decay | -1.8 | 42.3 | E233 silent |
| E234 2025-07-04 | decay | -1.7 | 40.6 | E234 silent |
| E235 2025-07-11 | decay | -1.6 | 38.9 | E235 silent |
| E236 2025-07-19 | decay | -1.6 | 37.4 | E236 silent |
| E237 2025-08-01 | decay | -1.5 | 35.9 | E237 silent |
| E238 2025-08-09 | decay | -1.4 | 34.5 | E238 silent |
| E239 2025-08-15 | decay | -1.4 | 33.1 | E239 silent |
| E240 2025-08-22 | decay | -1.3 | 31.8 | E240 silent |
| E241 2025-08-29 | decay | -1.3 | 30.5 | E241 silent |
| E242 2025-09-07 | decay | -1.2 | 29.3 | E242 silent |
| E243 2025-09-19 | decay | -1.2 | 28.1 | E243 silent |
| E244 2025-09-27 | decay | -1.1 | 27.0 | E244 silent |
| E245 2025-10-03 | decay | -1.1 | 25.9 | E245 silent |
| E246 2025-10-10 | decay | -1.0 | 24.9 | E246 silent |
| E247 2025-10-17 | decay | -1.0 | 23.9 | E247 silent |
| E248 2025-10-24 | decay | -1.0 | 22.9 | E248 silent |
| E249 2025-10-31 | decay | -0.9 | 22.0 | E249 silent |
| E250 2025-11-07 | decay | -0.9 | 21.1 | E250 silent |
| E251 2025-11-14 | decay | -0.8 | 20.3 | E251 silent |
| E252 2025-11-22 | decay | -0.8 | 19.5 | E252 silent |
| E253 2025-12-06 | decay | -0.8 | 18.7 | E253 silent |
| E254 2025-12-13 | decay | -0.7 | 17.9 | E254 silent |
| E255 2025-12-19 | decay | -0.7 | 17.2 | E255 silent |
| E256 2025-12-31 | decay | -0.7 | 16.5 | E256 silent |