📈 Government service providers get DOGE'd in 2025

⚖ Why this result

fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set

1. Window: 2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
2. The call: ▼ SHORT BAH (primary play). BAH fell 33.6% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = +33.6% (the call made money).
3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +16.1% → vs SPY = +33.6 − (+16.1) = +17.6% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
   Direction-only read: +49.8% — did BAH move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
4. Rule fired:
   ▶ RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+ ✓ (return 33.6, vs SPY 17.6)

   · HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all

   · WRONG — everything else
5. Credit: supporters of a RIGHT earn 1.0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath, Gavin Baker, Jason, Joe Lonsdale

each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Gavin Baker 67% regular guest ×1.0

1 scoring event · 47% of moves

+40.0 → net +40.0

Chamath 42%

2 scoring events · 27% of moves

+23.0 → net +23.0

Joe Lonsdale regular guest ×1.0

1 scoring event · 12% of moves

+10.2 → net +10.2

Jason 49%

1 scoring event · 9% of moves

+7.9 → net +7.9

⏳ decay drained -69.9 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one