🌍 Germany slides into recession because it can no longer get cheap energy

⚖ Why this result

fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set

1. Window: 2023-09-01 → 2024-09-01 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
2. The call: ▼ SHORT EWG (primary play). EWG rose 21.1% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = -21.1% (the call lost money).
3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +26.7% → vs SPY = -21.1 − (+26.7) = -47.8% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
   Direction-only read: +5.6% — did EWG move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
4. Rule fired:
   · RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+

   · HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all

   ▶ WRONG — everything else
5. Credit: supporters of a WRONG earn 0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath, Sacks

each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Sacks 56%

1 scoring event · 71% of moves

+35.0 → net +35.0

Chamath 53%

1 scoring event · 29% of moves

+14.6 → net +14.6

⏳ decay drained -42.0 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one