🌍 Germany slides into recession because it can no longer get cheap energy

⚖ Why this verdict

fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set

1. Window: 2023-09-01 → 2024-09-01 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
2. The call: ▼ SHORT EWG (primary play). EWG rose 21.1% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -21.1% (the call lost money).
3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +26.7% → α = -21.1 − (+26.7) = -47.8% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
   Stock-selection read: +5.6% — did EWG move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
4. Rule fired:
   · HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5

   · PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0

   ▶ MISS — everything else
5. Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Sacks

each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Sacks w=1.12

1 scoring event · 73% of moves

+39.4 → net +39.4

Chamath w=1.06

1 scoring event · 27% of moves

+14.5 → net +14.5

⏳ decay drained -45.6 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one