🤖 General-purpose robotics finally works this cycle

Friedberg tech w=1.08 · n=65 · E171 (2024-03-22) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 52:23 SUPPORT

“is there a enterprise like sale of robotics tools that have positive ROI for enterprises? And is there a business that's working there and that is scalable? Vertical solutions in labor and automation and productivity gains are probably the best sharp ratio.”

Jason tech w=1.05 · n=56 · E171 (2024-03-22) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 58:56 SUPPORT

“something tells me this robotic space, which has been a start over and over and over again. I think this is the time where actually it's going to work. And so I love that hardware and robotics space.”

Chamath tech w=0.90 · n=83 · E173 (2024-04-05) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:07:16 SUPPORT · horizon 36mo

“I think it'll be less than that. I think it's going to be in the next two or three years, you'll have a domestic help robot that you can probably pay a thousand bucks a month for.”

Jason tech w=1.05 · n=56 · E173 (2024-04-05) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:08:06 SUPPORT · horizon 84mo

“I think every human is going to have one of these. I think every household in America, every middle class household in America, will have one of these thousand dollar a month robots in seven years. I'll give it seven.”

Sacks tech w=0.77 · n=53 · E173 (2024-04-05) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:05:52 OPPOSE

“Jason, I don't think it's a five year time frame. I think it's longer than that. That's just my guess. ... I think in the near term, it's all about industrial applications or maybe even military applications.”

Friedberg tech w=1.08 · n=65 · E173 (2024-04-05) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:08:06 OPPOSE

“I don't think it necessarily follows this general purpose model. I think that there are likely going to be more narrow application ranges, and they're not going to necessarily be humanoid in form factor. ... the success of Gecko indicates that there's far more money to be made in industrial applications than there is in consumer applications today.”

Jason tech w=1.05 · n=56 · E176 (2024-04-26) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 36:09 SUPPORT

“I think every human on planet Earth eventually will have a robot. So I know that's crazy, but I think Optimus will dwarf the entire entirety of Tesla's other businesses.”

Chamath tech w=0.90 · n=83 · E176 (2024-04-26) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 33:44 OPPOSE

“I suspect instead of having a generalized robot, you have very specific use case robots that look differently ... there will be people that become experts in these vertical use cases, and that will limit the TAM for a generalized approach.”

Sacks tech w=0.77 · n=53 · E176 (2024-04-26) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 30:32 SUPPORT

“In the long-term, in terms of option value, I am the most intrigued by the robot play”

Friedberg tech w=1.08 · n=65 · E176 (2024-04-26) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 32:19 SUPPORT

“I think the Optimus has the highest alpha, but the highest beta. So, you know, more upside than anything else. Just unclear how you get there, what the path is and the capital requirements.”

Sam Altman (guest ×0.5) no tech track record · E178 (2024-05-10) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 22:36 SUPPORT

“Same with how I'm, like, more excited about humanoid robots than sort of robots of, like, very other shapes. The world is very much designed for humans and I think we should absolutely keep it that way.”

Friedberg tech w=1.08 · n=65 · E185 (2024-06-29) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:01:33 SUPPORT

“So the robotic applications are pretty powerful. Machine vision applications are very powerful.”

Jason tech w=1.05 · n=56 · E187 (2024-07-12) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 37:00 SUPPORT

“And I'm really interested in robotics now, too. I think there's going to be some incredible gains with Optimus and some of the other robots that are occurring.”

Jason tech w=1.05 · n=56 · E192 (2024-08-16) · positioning · strength 3 ▶ 40:15 SUPPORT

“We have an investment in a company called Cafe X. Nick, you can play a clip of it. These two machines in FSO have broke a million dollars a year in revenue.”

Friedberg tech w=1.08 · n=65 · E192 (2024-08-16) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 42:45 SUPPORT

“Basically, these businesses today are running at call it 30% EBITDA margins at peak performance. That's like Chipotle's best class by taking out labor. You could probably take out another 20 points of cost, which could translate into lower prices for consumers, higher throughput, lower wait times.”

Friedberg tech w=1.08 · n=65 · E217 (2025-03-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 19:41 OPPOSE

“It's a lot harder to create one of these general purpose systems and automation than create like vertically or kind of utility specific automation system. So a device that just does one thing, delivers something to you in the air or drives your food to you or loads and unloads your dishes. ... It is a general purpose device and it makes a technically very hard road map, I got to imagine.”