+12.7
net board stance
what this means
430.01
-0.9% · close 2026-09-08
-2% / -6% / +26%
1m / 3m / 12m
+11%
vs SPY since 2025-05-17
61%
of 52w range · -12.9% off high
—
hit rate as primary
Where we stand — 1 live idea
| idea | call | play | conviction | contributes | flag | eval in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🌍 China's automated manufacturing base outruns US reindustrialization | ▲ LONG | adjacent ×0.5 | 25.4 | +12.7 | — | 193d |
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
What resolves next
kill dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored verdict on that date, whether we like it or not
Track record on ROK
No closed window has used this ticker as its primary play, so there is no scored record here yet. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🌍 Resilience beats efficiency - supply chains get de-centralized and reshored | ▲ LONG | adjacent | PARTIAL | +16.9% | +1.0 | 2022-03-27 |
| 🤖 General-purpose robotics finally works this cycle | ▲ LONG | adjacent | MISS | -5.5% | -15.1 | 2025-03-22 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding ROK, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
And China has both manufacturing, productivity, materials advantage over the United States on that front. So it's not about having the best model. It's about having a supply chain that can support their ambitions in warfare.
AA
Aaron Levie
support ×2
▲ on
🌍 China's automated manufacturing base outruns US reindustrialization
E226 · 2025-05-02
▶ 37:53
And so you just stimulate a manufacturing boom in the country. We incentivize automation across the manufacturing. We use that as a competitive weapon to go and compete with the sort of lower cost labor that happens internationally.
China, ultimately, if they can make new energy systems cheaper than the United States, scale them faster, they will ultimately have much cheaper, much higher volumes of electricity, which gives them the advantage of manufacturing and production and transportation and everything. And that's where the economic advantage will ultimately accrue to them.
who's going to do this work if we're going to be deporting millions of people and we have the lowest unemployment of our lifetimes and we have automation coming to these factories and Americans don't want to take these jobs historically? How is this all going to work? It seems a bit farcical to me that we're going to bring these things back.
I would say probably the biggest thing would be whether the US can re-industrialize to some extent so that we're not completely dependent for our supply chains on a potentially hostile adversary.
In the last 20 years, they've built 30,000 miles of high-speed rail. In the next 15 years, they're going to add more electricity production capacity than the United States times who has today. There's nothing short of ambition coming out of China. And it's what we're lacking.
as we know, the way the Chinese operate when it comes to kind of industrialization is they can move fast, they can move big, they can move heavy, they can dedicate resources, they can dedicate an entirely vertically integrated supply chain to achieving an objective. So this will end up being kind of, I think, the big race over the next couple of years.
It's a lot harder to create one of these general purpose systems and automation than create like vertically or kind of utility specific automation system. So a device that just does one thing, delivers something to you in the air or drives your food to you or loads and unloads your dishes. ... It is a general purpose device and it makes a technically very hard road map, I got to imagine.
Basically, these businesses today are running at call it 30% EBITDA margins at peak performance. That's like Chipotle's best class by taking out labor. You could probably take out another 20 points of cost, which could translate into lower prices for consumers, higher throughput, lower wait times.
We have an investment in a company called Cafe X. Nick, you can play a clip of it. These two machines in FSO have broke a million dollars a year in revenue.
And I'm really interested in robotics now, too. I think there's going to be some incredible gains with Optimus and some of the other robots that are occurring.
So the robotic applications are pretty powerful. Machine vision applications are very powerful.
SA
Sam Altman
support ×1
▲ on
🤖 General-purpose robotics finally works this cycle
E178 · 2024-05-10
▶ 22:36
Same with how I'm, like, more excited about humanoid robots than sort of robots of, like, very other shapes. The world is very much designed for humans and I think we should absolutely keep it that way.
I think the Optimus has the highest alpha, but the highest beta. So, you know, more upside than anything else. Just unclear how you get there, what the path is and the capital requirements.
In the long-term, in terms of option value, I am the most intrigued by the robot play
I suspect instead of having a generalized robot, you have very specific use case robots that look differently ... there will be people that become experts in these vertical use cases, and that will limit the TAM for a generalized approach.
I think every human on planet Earth eventually will have a robot. So I know that's crazy, but I think Optimus will dwarf the entire entirety of Tesla's other businesses.
I don't think it necessarily follows this general purpose model. I think that there are likely going to be more narrow application ranges, and they're not going to necessarily be humanoid in form factor. ... the success of Gecko indicates that there's far more money to be made in industrial applications than there is in consumer applications today.
Jason, I don't think it's a five year time frame. I think it's longer than that. That's just my guess. ... I think in the near term, it's all about industrial applications or maybe even military applications.
I think every human is going to have one of these. I think every household in America, every middle class household in America, will have one of these thousand dollar a month robots in seven years. I'll give it seven.
I think it'll be less than that. I think it's going to be in the next two or three years, you'll have a domestic help robot that you can probably pay a thousand bucks a month for.
something tells me this robotic space, which has been a start over and over and over again. I think this is the time where actually it's going to work. And so I love that hardware and robotics space.
is there a enterprise like sale of robotics tools that have positive ROI for enterprises? And is there a business that's working there and that is scalable? Vertical solutions in labor and automation and productivity gains are probably the best sharp ratio.
So we have this interconnected world, this idea that we're de-globalizing. ... What we do doesn't impact anybody else. That ship has sailed a long time ago, and the Chinese see this.
the new war is the war on our dependency on dictators. We must have a race to resiliency.