+0.0
net board stance
what this means
16.14
+2.5% · close 2026-09-08
+1% / +3% / +15%
1m / 3m / 12m
-150%
vs SPY since 2022-08-05
37%
of 52w range · -28.1% off high
1/1
hit rate as primary · α +90
Where we stand — 0 live ideas
No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
Track record on RIVN
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 1 hit / 0 partial / 0 miss over 1 closed window — credit 1.0, average α +90.1. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📈 Rivian at $100B+ is disconnected from reality | ▼ SHORT | primary | HIT | +76.6% | +90.1 | 2022-11-13 |
| 📈 Elon's brand backlash caps Tesla's EV share near 30-40% | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | PARTIAL | +24.3% | -3.3 | 2024-06-24 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding RIVN, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
Jason
oppose ×2
▼ on
📈 Elon's brand backlash caps Tesla's EV share near 30-40%
E137 · 2023-07-14
▶ 52:12
But then Tesla also made the chess move of lowering their prices and having record sales. So their margin went down, but their sales went up.
Sacks
oppose ×2
▼ on
📈 Elon's brand backlash caps Tesla's EV share near 30-40%
E137 · 2023-07-14
▶ 53:46
And so they're actually interfering in a free market where Tesla is the big winner because they took a huge risk and created a product people wanted.
Chamath
support ×2
▼ on
📈 Elon's brand backlash caps Tesla's EV share near 30-40%
E134 · 2023-06-24
▶ 1:21:17
Look, we're friends with Elon, but we should acknowledge, there's a large number of people that are frankly a little bit turned off by him. And they've been very clear that they want an alternative to Tesla because they don't want to buy Tesla because they don't necessarily prefer him as a brand ambassador for their car. And the reality of life is that even if you're like maximally incredible, unless you find some clever way of creating a monopoly in which case you can be a douche or evil, you're only ever going to capture 30 plus 40 percent maybe of a market. Coke, Pepsi is a good example.
other people are coming in and looking at this company and saying they've built facilities, they've built assembly lines, and they've got pre orders and bookings for lots and lots of cars down in the future. ... the market is looking at a time horizon that it has never looked at before, which is making bets that are at 10, 15, 20 years in the future. And that's because of the condition that we're in right now from a monetary policy point of view. Interest rates are so low, there's no where to get yield in other assets.
I don't know anything about this Rivian company, but where I think J. Cal's right is we've seen over and over again that when a company gets, when a startup gets a billion-dollar-plus valuation without a product, invariably, it ends up somewhere between a disappointment and outright fraud.
Rivian, just in defense of Rivian for a second, what I have heard is that it's a it's a well-engineered car or truck rather. They've done a very smart path to market, which is essentially to, you know, build these delivery trucks for Amazon that allowed them to even frankly, you know, be default alive. ... What I have heard from people who were investors in both Lucid and Rivian is that they have sat in the cars, they've driven the cars, they've spent time with them, they've seen the factories, and it's very much real. Now what they're debating is ramp and velocity and scale. I don't know. I don't have a position in either.
Rivian has 17 billion in cash. Somebody asked me at the poker game last night, what I value Rivian at, I said, 17 plus 3, 17 million in cash plus 3 billion, double roughly what Tesla's was the market's hotter right now, whatever. But I put them at 20 billion and people were giving a hard time about it. I said, I think that's actually the realistic valuation for this company. ... No, but the distance between the valuation and reality is in the $50 to $100 billion range.