📈 Prop 22 IC+ model becomes the national gig-work architecture
California voters passing Prop 22 (independent contractor + benefits) ends the AB5 threat and, per Gerstner, becomes 'the architecture that New York and many other states follow' — a structural regulatory win for the gig platforms.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 27.2 EMBER
EMBER
band · contested
▲ LONG UBER
expression · bullish equities
HALF
result · return +10.4% · vs SPY -27.4%
2021-11-04
born 2020-11-04 (E11) → window closed
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2020-11-04 → 2021-11-04 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG UBER (primary play). UBER rose 10.4% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = +10.4% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +37.8% → vs SPY = +10.4 − (+37.8) = -27.4% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
- Rule fired:
· RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+▶ HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all· WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a HALF earn 0.5 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner, Sacks | opposed: Friedberg | proxy-sensitive: LYFT→HIT (+68.3%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2020-11-04)
Plays
Mention log newest first
Sacks
equities 44% · n=96
· E44 (2021-08-28) · sentiment · strength 1
▶ 1:09:15
SUPPORT
“And here you have the government basically trying to take away and prohibit freelance work, flexible hours, gig type jobs. ... And now you got this activist judge basically, you know, inventing these specious grounds for overturning Prop 22, which is what the people want. So it's ridiculous.”
Bill Gurley
(regular guest ×1.0)
equities 56% · n=9
· E44 (2021-08-28) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 1:06:01
SUPPORT
“There's one big issue that I don't think is talked about enough, which is, if you poll the drivers, they're not looking for any changes. They're really happy with the flexible work product. If you look at the voters of California, they stepped up and voted and made it very clear.”
Friedberg
equities 43% · n=123
· E44 (2021-08-28) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 1:03:32
OPPOSE
“Then this court ruling basically in the appeals court overruled the constitutionality of some elements of Prop 22, which brings into question whether that Prop 22 is actually going to hold in California. ... Because when you have to start treating those people like employees, the flexibility and freedom that those marketplaces enable stalls out, as we're already seeing. So it's super nasty.”
Brad Gerstner
(regular guest ×1.0)
equities 48% · n=22
· E11 (2020-11-04) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 2:12:51
SUPPORT
“You're going to see if Prop 22 passes, which I think it will tonight, it's going to be the architecture that New York and many other states follow. They're certainly not going to follow the disastrous AB5 example.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -20.1 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E11 2020-11-04 | init | +17.5 | 17.5 | E11 born by Brad Gerstner (explicit_prediction x2) [w=0.50] |
| E12 2020-11-11 | decay | -0.7 | 16.8 | E12 silent |
| E14 2020-12-04 | decay | -0.7 | 16.1 | E14 silent |
| E15 2020-12-18 | decay | -0.6 | 15.5 | E15 silent |
| E16 2021-01-08 | decay | -0.6 | 14.9 | E16 silent |
| E17 2021-01-11 | decay | -0.6 | 14.3 | E17 silent |
| E18 2021-01-23 | decay | -0.6 | 13.7 | E18 silent |
| E19 2021-01-30 | decay | -0.5 | 13.2 | E19 silent |
| E20 2021-02-03 | decay | -0.5 | 12.6 | E20 silent |
| E21 2021-02-06 | decay | -0.5 | 12.1 | E21 silent |
| E22 2021-02-13 | decay | -0.5 | 11.6 | E22 silent |
| E23 2021-02-20 | decay | -0.5 | 11.2 | E23 silent |
| E24 2021-03-06 | decay | -0.4 | 10.7 | E24 silent |
| E25 2021-03-13 | decay | -0.4 | 10.3 | E25 silent |
| E26 2021-03-20 | decay | -0.4 | 9.9 | E26 silent |
| E27 2021-03-27 | decay | -0.4 | 9.5 | E27 silent |
| E28 2021-04-01 | decay | -0.4 | 9.1 | E28 silent |
| E29 2021-04-17 | decay | -0.4 | 8.7 | E29 silent |
| E30 2021-04-23 | decay | -0.3 | 8.4 | E30 silent |
| E31 2021-05-01 | decay | -0.3 | 8.1 | E31 silent |
| E32 2021-05-13 | decay | -0.3 | 7.7 | E32 silent |
| E33 2021-05-22 | decay | -0.3 | 7.4 | E33 silent |
| E34 2021-05-31 | decay | -0.3 | 7.1 | E34 silent |
| E35 2021-06-13 | decay | -0.3 | 6.8 | E35 silent |
| E36 2021-06-18 | decay | -0.3 | 6.6 | E36 silent |
| E37 2021-06-25 | decay | -0.3 | 6.3 | E37 silent |
| E38 2021-07-03 | decay | -0.3 | 6.1 | E38 silent |
| E39 2021-07-09 | decay | -0.2 | 5.8 | E39 silent |
| E40 2021-07-16 | decay | -0.2 | 5.6 | E40 silent |
| E41 2021-07-23 | decay | -0.2 | 5.4 | E41 silent |
| E42 2021-07-30 | decay | -0.2 | 5.1 | E42 silent |
| E43 2021-08-06 | decay | -0.2 | 4.9 | E43 silent |
| E44 2021-08-28 | oppose | -4.9 | 0.0 | E44 Friedberg opposes x2 |
| E44 2021-08-28 | reinforce | +11.2 | 11.2 | E44 Bill Gurley support x2 (new voice) [w=0.50] |
| E44 2021-08-28 | reinforce | +16.0 | 27.2 | E44 Sacks support x1 (new voice) |
| E45 2021-09-04 | decay | -1.1 | 26.1 | E45 silent |
| E46 2021-09-14 | decay | -1.0 | 25.1 | E46 silent |
| E47 2021-09-18 | decay | -1.0 | 24.1 | E47 silent |
| E49 2021-10-02 | decay | -1.0 | 23.1 | E49 silent |
| E50 2021-10-09 | decay | -0.9 | 22.2 | E50 silent |
| E51 2021-10-16 | decay | -0.9 | 21.3 | E51 silent |
| E52 2021-10-23 | decay | -0.9 | 20.5 | E52 silent |
| E53 2021-10-30 | decay | -0.8 | 19.6 | E53 silent |