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📈 Nikola goes to zero

Nikola — a pre-product SPAC that peaked at $34B and sits at ~$6B with its founder under investigation — is a fraud/disaster riding Elon's coattails and 'will go to zero.' Jason's rule: pre-revenue company worth over $1B with no shipped product = fraud risk.

0 CONVICTION
peaked 40.8 EMBER
EMBER
band
▼ SHORT NKLA
expression · bearish equities
entry flag
⏰ 1727d overdue
eval pending · was due 2021-12-18 (unresolved — e.g. no price data)

Conviction timeline

bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15

Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2020-12-18)

Plays

expressionsymbolkindrelevancerationale
▼ SHORT NKLAstock PRIMARY the named short — pre-product EV SPAC under SEC investigation

Mention log

Jason
Jason equities w=0.97 · n=105 · E15 (2020-12-18) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 38:15 SUPPORT
“Nikola trading at $34 billion... It's now worth $6 billion. I predict it will be worth $0.60. I kid you not, this company will go to zero, is my prediction... if a company has not released their product, and it's worth over a billion dollars, be careful because it could be a fraud or it could be a disaster.”
Sacks
Sacks equities w=0.89 · n=96 · E43 (2021-08-06) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 44:45 SUPPORT
“Some of it is fraud. So read the quote from the US attorney of Manhattan who said, Milton, with respect to Nikola, lied about nearly every aspect of the business. People like that need to go to jail, okay?”
Jason
Jason equities w=0.97 · n=105 · E55 (2021-11-13) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 38:49 SUPPORT
“Well, I would say for Fisker and Nikola, two related companies, those ones seem very, very shaky.”

Who built this conviction

each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Jason
Jason w=0.97
2 scoring events · 74% of moves
+50.1 → net +50.1
Sacks
Sacks w=0.89
1 scoring event · 26% of moves
+17.2 → net +17.2

⏳ decay drained -42.0 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one

Score events

episodekindΔafternote
E15 2020-12-18 init +40.8 40.8 E15 born by Jason (explicit_prediction x3) [w=0.97]
E16 2021-01-08 decay -1.6 39.2 E16 silent
E17 2021-01-11 decay -1.6 37.6 E17 silent
E18 2021-01-23 decay -1.5 36.1 E18 silent
E19 2021-01-30 decay -1.4 34.7 E19 silent
E20 2021-02-03 decay -1.4 33.3 E20 silent
E21 2021-02-06 decay -1.3 31.9 E21 silent
E22 2021-02-13 decay -1.3 30.7 E22 silent
E23 2021-02-20 decay -1.2 29.4 E23 silent
E24 2021-03-06 decay -1.2 28.3 E24 silent
E25 2021-03-13 decay -1.1 27.1 E25 silent
E26 2021-03-20 decay -1.1 26.0 E26 silent
E27 2021-03-27 decay -1.0 25.0 E27 silent
E28 2021-04-01 decay -1.0 24.0 E28 silent
E29 2021-04-17 decay -1.0 23.0 E29 silent
E30 2021-04-23 decay -0.9 22.1 E30 silent
E31 2021-05-01 decay -0.9 21.2 E31 silent
E32 2021-05-13 decay -0.8 20.4 E32 silent
E33 2021-05-22 decay -0.8 19.6 E33 silent
E34 2021-05-31 decay -0.8 18.8 E34 silent
E35 2021-06-13 decay -0.8 18.0 E35 silent
E36 2021-06-18 decay -0.7 17.3 E36 silent
E37 2021-06-25 decay -0.7 16.6 E37 silent
E38 2021-07-03 decay -0.7 16.0 E38 silent
E39 2021-07-09 decay -0.6 15.3 E39 silent
E40 2021-07-16 decay -0.6 14.7 E40 silent
E41 2021-07-23 decay -0.6 14.1 E41 silent
E42 2021-07-30 decay -0.6 13.6 E42 silent
E43 2021-08-06 reinforce +17.2 30.8 E43 Sacks support x2 (new voice) [w=0.89]
E44 2021-08-28 decay -1.2 29.5 E44 silent
E45 2021-09-04 decay -1.2 28.4 E45 silent
E46 2021-09-14 decay -1.1 27.2 E46 silent
E47 2021-09-18 decay -1.1 26.1 E47 silent
E49 2021-10-02 decay -1.0 25.1 E49 silent
E50 2021-10-09 decay -1.0 24.1 E50 silent
E51 2021-10-16 decay -1.0 23.1 E51 silent
E52 2021-10-23 decay -0.9 22.2 E52 silent
E53 2021-10-30 decay -0.9 21.3 E53 silent
E54 2021-11-06 decay -0.9 20.5 E54 silent
E55 2021-11-13 reinforce +9.3 29.7 E55 Jason support x1 [w=0.97]
E56 2021-11-20 decay -1.2 28.5 E56 silent
E57 2021-12-04 decay -1.1 27.4 E57 silent
E58 2021-12-11 decay -1.1 26.3 E58 silent
E59 2021-12-17 decay -1.1 25.3 E59 silent