📈 Asset-light domestic services platforms are the tariff-immune trade
Jason's trade-war expression: platforms that sell domestic labour and services rather than imported goods carry zero tariff pass-through, so they outperform goods-exposed equities through the trade war. He names Uber as 'the anti-tariff stock' and puts an $88 level on it.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 35.0 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▲ LONG UBER
expression · bullish equities
WRONG
result · return -10.9% · vs SPY -39.5%
2026-05-02
born 2025-05-02 (E226) → window closed
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2025-05-02 → 2026-05-02 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG UBER (primary play). UBER fell 10.9% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = -10.9% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +28.6% → vs SPY = -10.9 − (+28.6) = -39.5% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
- Rule fired:
· RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+· HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all▶ WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a WRONG earn 0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Jason | proxy-sensitive: ABNB→PARTIAL (+13.1%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2025-05-02)
Plays
Mention log newest first
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -29.2 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E226 2025-05-02 | init | +35.0 | 35.0 | E226 born by Jason (explicit_prediction x2) |
| E227 2025-05-09 | decay | -1.4 | 33.6 | E227 silent |
| E228 2025-05-17 | decay | -1.3 | 32.3 | E228 silent |
| E229 2025-05-24 | decay | -1.3 | 31.0 | E229 silent |
| E231 2025-06-13 | decay | -1.2 | 29.7 | E231 silent |
| E232 2025-06-21 | decay | -1.2 | 28.5 | E232 silent |
| E233 2025-06-28 | decay | -1.1 | 27.4 | E233 silent |
| E234 2025-07-04 | decay | -1.1 | 26.3 | E234 silent |
| E235 2025-07-11 | decay | -1.1 | 25.2 | E235 silent |
| E236 2025-07-19 | decay | -1.0 | 24.2 | E236 silent |
| E237 2025-08-01 | decay | -1.0 | 23.3 | E237 silent |
| E238 2025-08-09 | decay | -0.9 | 22.3 | E238 silent |
| E239 2025-08-15 | decay | -0.9 | 21.4 | E239 silent |
| E240 2025-08-22 | decay | -0.9 | 20.6 | E240 silent |
| E241 2025-08-29 | decay | -0.8 | 19.8 | E241 silent |
| E242 2025-09-07 | decay | -0.8 | 19.0 | E242 silent |
| E243 2025-09-19 | decay | -0.8 | 18.2 | E243 silent |
| E244 2025-09-27 | decay | -0.7 | 17.5 | E244 silent |
| E245 2025-10-03 | decay | -0.7 | 16.8 | E245 silent |
| E246 2025-10-10 | decay | -0.7 | 16.1 | E246 silent |
| E247 2025-10-17 | decay | -0.6 | 15.5 | E247 silent |
| E248 2025-10-24 | decay | -0.6 | 14.9 | E248 silent |
| E249 2025-10-31 | decay | -0.6 | 14.3 | E249 silent |
| E250 2025-11-07 | decay | -0.6 | 13.7 | E250 silent |
| E251 2025-11-14 | decay | -0.5 | 13.1 | E251 silent |
| E252 2025-11-22 | decay | -0.5 | 12.6 | E252 silent |
| E253 2025-12-06 | decay | -0.5 | 12.1 | E253 silent |
| E254 2025-12-13 | decay | -0.5 | 11.6 | E254 silent |
| E255 2025-12-19 | decay | -0.5 | 11.2 | E255 silent |
| E256 2025-12-31 | decay | -0.4 | 10.7 | E256 silent |
| E257 2026-01-10 | decay | -0.4 | 10.3 | E257 silent |
| E258 2026-01-17 | decay | -0.4 | 9.9 | E258 silent |
| E259 2026-01-30 | decay | -0.4 | 9.5 | E259 silent |
| E260 2026-02-07 | decay | -0.4 | 9.1 | E260 silent |
| E261 2026-02-13 | decay | -0.4 | 8.7 | E261 silent |
| E262 2026-02-28 | decay | -0.3 | 8.4 | E262 silent |
| E263 2026-03-06 | decay | -0.3 | 8.1 | E263 silent |
| E264 2026-03-13 | decay | -0.3 | 7.7 | E264 silent |
| E265 2026-03-19 | decay | -0.3 | 7.4 | E265 silent |
| E266 2026-03-27 | decay | -0.3 | 7.1 | E266 silent |
| E267 2026-04-03 | decay | -0.3 | 6.8 | E267 silent |
| E268 2026-04-10 | decay | -0.3 | 6.6 | E268 silent |
| E269 2026-04-17 | decay | -0.3 | 6.3 | E269 silent |
| E270 2026-04-24 | decay | -0.3 | 6.0 | E270 silent |
| E271 2026-05-01 | decay | -0.2 | 5.8 | E271 silent |