TBF

ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury

etf all instruments
+0.0
net board stance what this means
25.42
-0.0% · close 2026-09-08
+1% / +4% / +10%
1m / 3m / 12m
-45%
vs SPY since 2021-02-20
92%
of 52w range · -1.0% off high
hit rate as primary

Where we stand — 0 live ideas

No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.

Where the winds are blowing

NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 45 EPISODES — rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the talk lead the tape or follow it?

Who's pushing which way

each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means

Chamath
Chamath w=1.06 macro
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E57
+3
pushes up
Sacks
Sacks w=1.12 macro
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E23
+2
pushes up
Friedberg
Friedberg w=0.93 macro
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E23
+2
pushes up

Track record on TBF

No closed window has used this ticker as its primary play, so there is no scored record here yet. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.

ideacallplayverdictRαclosed
🌍 Deglobalization reflates the world and shocks rates ▲ LONG adjacent HIT +37.2% +23.6 2022-02-20

The tape — what was actually said

every capture on any idea holding TBF, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode

Chamath Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 🌍 Deglobalization reflates the world and shocks rates E57 · 2021-12-04 ▶ 35:23
we are moving the world back into a more, you know, decentralized place, right? The centralization was this just-in-time, you know, single supply chain, single point of failure existence. ... the solution to fixing the core structural inflation we have is going to take a decade. ... Inflation is now here. I think it's here to last. I've been pretty consistent about this. ... And this is the real reason why we're going to have a few years of pain. ... Structural inflation is here. We've under invested under invested at the macro level, and we've completely distorted people's incentives to work at the micro level.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Deglobalization reflates the world and shocks rates E23 · 2021-02-20 ▶ 1:14:17
which is the only way you can afford debt is if you have growth. That forces you to find growth. ... That is what's basically going to ultimately lead to a lot of different types of crises, both financial crises, but also societal crises in terms of revolution and social pushes for socialism and all the other things that are typically associated with things like inflation.
Sacks Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Deglobalization reflates the world and shocks rates E23 · 2021-02-20 ▶ 1:13:00
so actually mine is pretty similar to Chamath, which is I think we're accruing these unpayable deficits and debts and obligations. ... I mean, I think that eventually it translates into inflation, but I think it translates into something even worse, which is at some point, people become skeptical about loaning money to the US government
Chamath Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 🌍 Deglobalization reflates the world and shocks rates E23 · 2021-02-20 ▶ 1:11:07
There is only one, and I think it's inflation, but I think it's important to understand where inflation is coming from. ... So you're going to have all these vertically, you know, vertically integrated supply chains and resilient economies. You know what that does when you have to try to build that stuff? Prices go screaming higher. ... And so I think you're going to reflate the world.