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Friedberg oppose ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ US-Russia proxy war escalates horizontally E205 · 2024-11-23 ▶ 54:35

Does Putin not see that in a couple of weeks, a couple of months, there will be new leadership in the White House and there's going to be a path to a resolution here?

Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ US-Russia proxy war escalates horizontally E205 · 2024-11-23 ▶ 53:07

but we're talking about tens and hundreds of billions of dollars that we're giving on top of the risk of nuclear escalation. I just think it's absolutely crazy.

Sacks support ×3 ▲ on 🏛️ US-Russia proxy war escalates horizontally E205 · 2024-11-23 ▶ 48:16

The bottom line is this war is escalating, it's escalating nowhere good and at some point soon, we're going to have to get off of this escalatory ladder or we're going to end up in a really disastrous place.

Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ US-Russia proxy war escalates horizontally E197 · 2024-09-27 ▶ 1:33:37

Chamath, you're right. I mean, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, all of America was huddled around their TV sets worried about what would happen. There is no similar concern in this day and age about the escalatory wars that are happening.

Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 🏛️ US-Russia proxy war escalates horizontally E197 · 2024-09-27 ▶ 1:32:35

But we are fighting a potential nuclear threat on three fronts. How have we allowed this to happen? Russia, Iran, China.

Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ US-Russia proxy war escalates horizontally E186 · 2024-07-04 ▶ 22:14

Biden actually approved private contractors now going into Ukraine and starting to fight. Americans will be on the battlefield as of I think this was just a few days ago.

Sacks support ×3 ▲ on 🏛️ US-Russia proxy war escalates horizontally E186 · 2024-07-04 ▶ 21:02

The Russians in response to that said we are no longer in a state of peace with the United States. They did not say we're in a state of war, but they said we're no longer in a state of peace. And the Russians have indicated that they may escalate horizontally by giving advanced weapons to our enemies. For example, they've talked about giving cruise missiles to the hoodies.

Chamath oppose ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Debt-service trap: the Fed can't really fight inflation, so we monetize and debase E100 · 2022-10-14 ▶ 1:02:51

the single biggest thing I think that will prevent nuclear war is the inflation that we're feeling. And the reason is because it allows the Fed, in my opinion, for the first time really in the last 15 years, to act properly.

Friedberg support ×3 ▲ on 🌍 Debt-service trap: the Fed can't really fight inflation, so we monetize and debase E98 · 2022-10-01 ▶ 31:26

That's $15 trillion of annual debt service, which is like 18% of global GDP. Like the debt service alone.

Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Debt-service trap: the Fed can't really fight inflation, so we monetize and debase E98 · 2022-10-01 ▶ 33:15

When rates were like near zero, and we had the opportunity to refinance the US government debt using long-term rates, basically long-term bonds

Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 🌍 Debt-service trap: the Fed can't really fight inflation, so we monetize and debase E98 · 2022-10-01 ▶ 32:39

You print more money. I'm sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but it is not as if we have a law, a constitutional law, or it's not as if governments have collectively decided that you cannot have debt to GDP above a certain number. That doesn't happen, guys. We passed 100 under Obama, and we've just kept printing money.

Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Debt-service trap: the Fed can't really fight inflation, so we monetize and debase E80 · 2022-05-13 ▶ 1:36:00

But I think the reality is there's a Fed put somewhere in between here, because if we see the credit markets really seize up, which we would if the equity markets continue to retrench, the Fed will be forced to step in with liquidity and we back to where we were before.

Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 🌍 Debt-service trap: the Fed can't really fight inflation, so we monetize and debase E71 · 2022-03-05 ▶ 1:17:15

And so if we end up running massive deficits, and now we're at, you know, 150, 250, 300 percent of GDP, I think that, you know, morally that's that is the right thing to do.

Chamath reversal ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E71 · 2022-03-05 ▶ 21:30

No. And the other thing, in fact, it's the opposite. ... What I can tell you is I think that prices are too high in certain core commodities and goods. I think what's going to happen is we are going to find a way to subsidize those prices coming down.

Friedberg support ×3 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E71 · 2022-03-05 ▶ 1:11:56

Today, corn, I think, is trading at $7.60 a bushel. That hasn't happened, guys. I can't tell you in how long. This was a commodity that was trading at $3.50 a few months ago. ... The trickle-down effect, as we're already seeing in California, or San Francisco, with the average price per gallon of gas at over $5. The trickle-down effect on purchasing behavior, on businesses defaulting because suddenly their counterparties dry up.

Sacks support ×3 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E67 · 2022-02-12 ▶ 1:03:46

there was a really interesting chart on inflation that actually Zero Hedge tweeted. And I threw it up in the notes here where they said real hourly earnings are negative 1.7 percent. It's the 10th month in a row where US incomes aren't keeping up with inflation. ... Actually, as it turns out, it boosted inflation so much that people are feeling worse off, even though their wages went up slightly, because on a net basis, their earnings are down. So I just think it's a good reminder that you can't just like print wealth. You can't print your way to prosperity.

Chamath reversal ×3 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E64 · 2022-01-22 ▶ 44:31

But David is saying something really important. The risk, in my opinion, is not of runaway inflation anymore. And the reason was what happened this weekend was incredibly important.

Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E60 · 2021-12-23 ▶ 43:04

But now it turned out that the inflation was not transitory. And so the use of the word transitory, I predict, will in fact be transitory.

Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E59 · 2021-12-17 ▶ 33:22

The Fed prints money, the government prints $100, takes that $100, steps into the market, and takes something from you, in this case, it's a bond, and gives you that freshly printed $100. What are you going to do? Well, you're probably going to go and spend that, you're going to buy other things. And that's the cycle of inflation that quantitative easing basically creates. ... when we're printing six, seven, eight percent inflation for me to basically keep the money printing machine on because it's it's insane

Sacks support ×3 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E59 · 2021-12-17 ▶ 31:38

this BBB bill was particularly anachronistic once the 6.8%, you know, inflation print came out. In other words, we're in a hyperinflationary environment and here comes this bill that the CBO says if, you know, over 10 years would cost $5 trillion, that's the last thing we need is more money printing when, you know, we've got this inflationary fire out of control.

Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Debt-service trap: the Fed can't really fight inflation, so we monetize and debase E58 · 2021-12-11 ▶ 42:08

It is a breaking of the bank. They're talking about minting trillion dollar coins. ... So you're looking at 150 billion of incremental debt service costs, right? So multiply that over 10 years, that's 1.5 trillion over 10 years. That's your build back better right there.

Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Debt-service trap: the Fed can't really fight inflation, so we monetize and debase E58 · 2021-12-11 ▶ 17:37

Now, the problem is if you then raise rates and you can't borrow that money, and suddenly people have to start to pay that debt down without economic growth having occurred, the whole system goes bankrupt. So the challenge that the Fed has is how do we raise rates without triggering an economic recession?

Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E58 · 2021-12-11 ▶ 17:37

We're seeing asset bubbles everywhere in NFTs, in crypto, in startups, in new startups, in new ideas. ... And as a result, we're kind of seeing this inflationary pressure persist.

Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E58 · 2021-12-11 ▶ 13:58

CPI is horribly calculated and it's really imprecise ... the largest owners of nationwide single-family rentals are reporting a 17% year-over-year rent increase ... it means that core CPI actually went from 4.9% today to actually 9%. And the CPI print, which was 6.8%, was actually 10.1%.

Sacks support ×3 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E58 · 2021-12-11 ▶ 9:04

it's definitely not transitory ... Then it went to 6.2. Now it's 6.8. Looks like it's headed to 7%. ... these guys are continuing to pump more and more stimulus into an economy that has enough