🤖 Growth multiples have another 10-20% to give back as the 10-year normalizes
Long rates normalizing toward pre-COVID levels re-rates long-duration growth assets downward; software/internet multiples already gave back 30-40% off the Oct-Nov 2020 peak and have another 10-20% to go, with the largest public growth managers deleveraging rather than adding.
other ideas on the same ticker, same direction: The $3-4T software industrial complex contracts in 2026 34 (IGV)
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-04-17 → 2021-07-17 — first mention + 3-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT IGV (primary play). IGV rose 6.2% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = -6.2% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +4.2%
→ vs SPY = -6.2 − (+4.2) = -10.4%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
Direction-only read: -2.0% — did IGV move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
- Rule fired:
· RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+· HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all▶ WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a WRONG earn 0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Brad Gerstner
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-04-17)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | IGV | etf | PRIMARY | software multiples are the explicit subject of the compression call |
| ▼ SHORT | ARKK | etf | adjacent | highest-duration growth basket, maximum sensitivity to the 10-year |
| ▼ SHORT | ZM | stock | adjacent | named as the poster child of the outlier peak multiple that is not coming back on multiple alone |
Mention log newest first
“You can believe the next three months that we're likely to have more multiple compression in the public markets, right? You could hedge your public book in a variety of ways against that, like we did and announced last December.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -13.0 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E29 2021-04-17 | init | +36.0 | 36.0 | E29 born by Brad Gerstner (positioning x3) |
| E30 2021-04-23 | decay | -1.4 | 34.6 | E30 silent |
| E31 2021-05-01 | decay | -1.4 | 33.2 | E31 silent |
| E32 2021-05-13 | decay | -1.3 | 31.9 | E32 silent |
| E33 2021-05-22 | decay | -1.3 | 30.6 | E33 silent |
| E34 2021-05-31 | decay | -1.2 | 29.4 | E34 silent |
| E35 2021-06-13 | decay | -1.2 | 28.2 | E35 silent |
| E36 2021-06-18 | decay | -1.1 | 27.1 | E36 silent |
| E37 2021-06-25 | decay | -1.1 | 26.0 | E37 silent |
| E38 2021-07-03 | decay | -1.0 | 24.9 | E38 silent |
| E39 2021-07-09 | decay | -1.0 | 23.9 | E39 silent |
| E40 2021-07-16 | decay | -1.0 | 23.0 | E40 silent |