🤖 Growth multiples have another 10-20% to give back as the 10-year normalizes
Long rates normalizing toward pre-COVID levels re-rates long-duration growth assets downward; software/internet multiples already gave back 30-40% off the Oct-Nov 2020 peak and have another 10-20% to go, with the largest public growth managers deleveraging rather than adding.
also touching these tickers, same direction: The $3-4T software industrial complex contracts in 2026 19 (IGV)
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-04-17 → 2021-07-17 — first mention + 3-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT IGV (primary play). IGV rose 6.2% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -6.2% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +4.2%
→ α = -6.2 − (+4.2) = -10.4%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
Stock-selection read: -2.0% — did IGV move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Brad Gerstner
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-04-17)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | IGV | etf | PRIMARY | software multiples are the explicit subject of the compression call |
| ▼ SHORT | ARKK | etf | adjacent | highest-duration growth basket, maximum sensitivity to the 10-year |
| ▼ SHORT | ZM | stock | adjacent | named as the poster child of the outlier peak multiple that is not coming back on multiple alone |
Mention log
“You can believe the next three months that we're likely to have more multiple compression in the public markets, right? You could hedge your public book in a variety of ways against that, like we did and announced last December.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -18.4 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E29 2021-04-17 | init | +50.8 | 50.8 | E29 born by Brad Gerstner (positioning x3) [w=1.41] |
| E30 2021-04-23 | decay | -2.0 | 48.8 | E30 silent |
| E31 2021-05-01 | decay | -2.0 | 46.8 | E31 silent |
| E32 2021-05-13 | decay | -1.9 | 45.0 | E32 silent |
| E33 2021-05-22 | decay | -1.8 | 43.2 | E33 silent |
| E34 2021-05-31 | decay | -1.7 | 41.4 | E34 silent |
| E35 2021-06-13 | decay | -1.7 | 39.8 | E35 silent |
| E36 2021-06-18 | decay | -1.6 | 38.2 | E36 silent |
| E37 2021-06-25 | decay | -1.5 | 36.7 | E37 silent |
| E38 2021-07-03 | decay | -1.5 | 35.2 | E38 silent |
| E39 2021-07-09 | decay | -1.4 | 33.8 | E39 silent |
| E40 2021-07-16 | decay | -1.4 | 32.4 | E40 silent |