🤖 Neoclouds are a transitory GPU arbitrage, not a durable business

Friedberg tech w=1.08 · n=65 · E218 (2025-03-08) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 59:13 SUPPORT · horizon 24mo

“And so I worry a little bit about a business like this, where there's four or five companies that are each doing 80 billion dollars of CapEx this year to create infrastructure that effectively starts to replace what these guys are effectively offering out as a service. ... If I was to do diligence on this business, that's where I would spend a lot of my time is like, guys, what's the capacity going to be in a year or two? Sort of like when broadband hit the Internet, you didn't need speed doublers anymore.”

Joe Lonsdale (regular guest ×1.0) no tech track record · E218 (2025-03-08) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 57:28 OPPOSE

“It's really interesting what they did is they locked down the full supply of tons of data centers, tons of the power they needed, tons of the chips. They're very, very thoughtful. I mean, they're effectively, they're traders and they're very economic. And I think they have a lot of the stuff well.”

Gavin Baker (regular guest ×1.0) tech w=1.46 · n=13 · E221 (2025-03-29) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 12:47 OPPOSE

“I think what may be underappreciated about CoreWeave is it's actually really hard to run these big training clusters. Everybody thinks it's easy, but to synchronize tens of thousands of GPUs where they're melting, or cables are being unplugged, and you lose a bunch of training data when it happens. I just think it may not be the commodity that everyone thinks it is, and it may turn out that it's much harder to do than people think.”