⚡ The US power bottleneck is turbines, transmission and storage, not generation
Chamath, underwriting a $25B / 1GW data center outside Phoenix, says nat-gas turbines ordered today cannot be energised before 2030 — a supply-chain constraint, not a technology one — and that the binding constraints on AI power are supply, transmission, distribution and storage rather than the ability to generate electricity. That bids up turbine, grid-equipment and power-infrastructure suppliers.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 26.7 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▲ LONG GEV
expression · bullish energy
HIT
outcome · R +110.5% · α +89.2%
2026-07-04
window closed
also touching these tickers, same direction: Natural gas powers the AI datacenter buildout 51 (GEV)
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2025-07-04 → 2026-07-04 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG GEV (primary play). GEV rose 110.5% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +110.5% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +21.3% → α = +110.5 − (+21.3) = +89.2% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
▶ HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5 ✓ (R 110.5, α 89.2)· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0· MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a HIT earn 1.0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath | proxy-sensitive: ETN→PARTIAL (+12.5%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2025-07-04)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | GEV | stock | PRIMARY | gas-turbine order book is the explicit 2030 bottleneck he names |
| ▲ LONG | ETN | stock | adjacent | electrical distribution and data-center power equipment |
| ▲ LONG | PWR | stock | adjacent | transmission and distribution build-out contractor |
| ▲ LONG | VRT | stock | adjacent | data-center power and thermal infrastructure downstream of the same constraint |
Mention log
Chamath
energy w=0.55 · n=22
· E234 (2025-07-04) · positioning · strength 3
▶ 19:31
SUPPORT
“The problem is that if we put it in order right now, we can't get Nat gas turbine viable and turned on until 2030 It's not a technology issue, it's purely a supply chain issue. So I think what our energy policy needs to make sure we contemplate is that many of the things that we are debating are no longer issues of production, but they're issues of supply, transmission and distribution.”
PH
Phil Deutch
(guest ×0.5)
no energy track record
· E238 (2025-08-09) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 23:09
SUPPORT
· horizon 36mo
“Anthropic just released a paper this month saying, we want 50 gigawatts of power for the AI in America and over the next three years. That's about as much power as was added all this year.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -23.9 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E234 2025-07-04 | init | +19.6 | 19.6 | E234 born by Chamath (positioning x3) [w=0.55] |
| E235 2025-07-11 | decay | -0.8 | 18.9 | E235 silent |
| E236 2025-07-19 | decay | -0.8 | 18.1 | E236 silent |
| E237 2025-08-01 | decay | -0.7 | 17.4 | E237 silent |
| E238 2025-08-09 | reinforce | +9.3 | 26.7 | E238 Phil Deutch support x2 (new voice) [w=0.50] |
| E239 2025-08-15 | decay | -1.1 | 25.6 | E239 silent |
| E240 2025-08-22 | decay | -1.0 | 24.6 | E240 silent |
| E241 2025-08-29 | decay | -1.0 | 23.6 | E241 silent |
| E242 2025-09-07 | decay | -0.9 | 22.7 | E242 silent |
| E243 2025-09-19 | decay | -0.9 | 21.7 | E243 silent |
| E244 2025-09-27 | decay | -0.9 | 20.9 | E244 silent |
| E245 2025-10-03 | decay | -0.8 | 20.0 | E245 silent |
| E246 2025-10-10 | decay | -0.8 | 19.2 | E246 silent |
| E247 2025-10-17 | decay | -0.8 | 18.5 | E247 silent |
| E248 2025-10-24 | decay | -0.7 | 17.7 | E248 silent |
| E249 2025-10-31 | decay | -0.7 | 17.0 | E249 silent |
| E250 2025-11-07 | decay | -0.7 | 16.3 | E250 silent |
| E251 2025-11-14 | decay | -0.7 | 15.7 | E251 silent |
| E252 2025-11-22 | decay | -0.6 | 15.1 | E252 silent |
| E253 2025-12-06 | decay | -0.6 | 14.5 | E253 silent |
| E254 2025-12-13 | decay | -0.6 | 13.9 | E254 silent |
| E255 2025-12-19 | decay | -0.6 | 13.3 | E255 silent |
| E256 2025-12-31 | decay | -0.5 | 12.8 | E256 silent |
| E257 2026-01-10 | decay | -0.5 | 12.3 | E257 silent |
| E258 2026-01-17 | decay | -0.5 | 11.8 | E258 silent |
| E259 2026-01-30 | decay | -0.5 | 11.3 | E259 silent |
| E260 2026-02-07 | decay | -0.5 | 10.9 | E260 silent |
| E261 2026-02-13 | decay | -0.4 | 10.4 | E261 silent |
| E262 2026-02-28 | decay | -0.4 | 10.0 | E262 silent |
| E263 2026-03-06 | decay | -0.4 | 9.6 | E263 silent |
| E264 2026-03-13 | decay | -0.4 | 9.2 | E264 silent |
| E265 2026-03-19 | decay | -0.4 | 8.9 | E265 silent |
| E266 2026-03-27 | decay | -0.4 | 8.5 | E266 silent |
| E267 2026-04-03 | decay | -0.3 | 8.2 | E267 silent |
| E268 2026-04-10 | decay | -0.3 | 7.8 | E268 silent |
| E269 2026-04-17 | decay | -0.3 | 7.5 | E269 silent |
| E270 2026-04-24 | decay | -0.3 | 7.2 | E270 silent |
| E271 2026-05-01 | decay | -0.3 | 6.9 | E271 silent |
| E272 2026-05-08 | decay | -0.3 | 6.7 | E272 silent |
| E273 2026-05-15 | decay | -0.3 | 6.4 | E273 silent |
| E274 2026-05-22 | decay | -0.3 | 6.1 | E274 silent |
| E275 2026-05-29 | decay | -0.2 | 5.9 | E275 silent |
| E276 2026-06-13 | decay | -0.2 | 5.7 | E276 silent |
| E277 2026-06-19 | decay | -0.2 | 5.4 | E277 silent |
| E278 2026-06-26 | decay | -0.2 | 5.2 | E278 silent |
| E279 2026-07-03 | decay | -0.2 | 5.0 | E279 silent |