+17.2
net board stance
what this means
121.04
-0.9% · close 2026-09-08
+30% / +44% / +3%
1m / 3m / 12m
+132%
vs SPY since 2025-04-11
64%
of 52w range · -20.6% off high
1/3
hit rate as primary · α +0
Where we stand — 2 live ideas
| idea | call | play | conviction | contributes | flag | eval in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📈 Retail speculation complex (Robinhood/prediction markets/gambling) wins 2026 CONTESTED | ▲ LONG | primary | 12.4 | +12.4 | — | 122d |
| 📈 Everything becomes a market — prediction-market financialization | ▲ LONG | adjacent ×0.5 | 9.7 | +4.8 | — | 30d |
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
What resolves next
kill dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored verdict on that date, whether we like it or not
Track record on HOOD
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 1 hit / 0 partial / 2 miss over 3 closed windows — credit 0.33, average α +0.1. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🪙 Crypto collapse triggers a multi-year enforcement and litigation wave | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | MISS | -238.6% | -281.9 | 2024-06-24 |
| 🏛️ Crypto owners become a swing bloc and force a pro-crypto framework | ▲ LONG | adjacent | PARTIAL | +9.2% | -4.0 | 2025-05-31 |
| 📈 Gamified retail speculation overwhelms fundamental price-setting | ▲ LONG | primary | HIT | +116.0% | +108.2 | 2025-03-29 |
| 🏛️ CLARITY Act market-structure bill clears the Senate and is signed by October | ▲ LONG | adjacent | MISS | -18.8% | -24.7 | 2025-10-19 |
| 🪙 SEC suits drive the US crypto exchanges offshore | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | MISS | -394.1% | -419.4 | 2024-06-10 |
| 📈 Robinhood compounds hard off its $30B IPO | ▲ LONG | primary | MISS | -74.2% | -69.5 | 2022-07-30 |
| 📈 Robinhood keeps compounding — product velocity plus retail loyalty | ▲ LONG | primary | MISS | -16.3% | -38.3 | 2026-08-15 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding HOOD, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
over time, you could burn and churn through all of your customers, ... if they're constantly going to be making trades where they simply don't have an edge, and all the ... liquidity is coming from the accounts that do have an edge,
Billions and billions of dollars will be made in asymmetry. The prediction markets today, unless they are regulated out of existence or shut down, will look like the stock market
if we are in a rate cut environment and ... people have a little bit of cash laying around, my pick for best performing asset will be the Robinhood Polymarket
Polymarket actually has the news before the news does... when people have incentives, that market will find the truth... The polymarket model is the best model because it creates a market... everyone will get a more fair price.
Somebody needs to build the app that makes all of these things fungible. ... you'll want to have a large pool of capital that you can trade across anything. So I can go long NVIDIA, but I can also go short the NICS, and then I can own some Bitcoin all in the same trade.
everything is becoming a market. And you're going to see this convergence where eventually you'll have sports that look like markets, you'll have knowledge that becomes a market, and then you'll ultimately have equities and debt instruments also behave this way, ... I think that that is a huge deal,
Having been an investor in Uber and Robinhood when they were $5 and $20 million companies... I did the same for Robinhood at $12 [as a public investor]... they keep releasing exceptional products over and over again... when it was at $12, I was like, this obviously is undervalued, I'm just going to buy more. And now it's at $120 — a 12-bagger in the public markets.
In fact, the chairman of the Senate Bank Committee, Tim Scott, has said that he wants to finish with the market structure legislation by the end of September. So if all goes well, then we could be looking at a second bill signing in, say, October.
BO
Bo Hines
support ×2
▲ on
🏛️ CLARITY Act market-structure bill clears the Senate and is signed by October
E236 · 2025-07-19
▶ 40:35
And to pivot to market structure really briefly, this provides the rules of the road for the exchanges, the brokers, everyone in the space. They desperately need it so that we can break down the wall between traditional financial institutions and these digital asset players. I think that's well underway. Obviously, getting a vote as strong as they did in the House is indicative of what can happen in the Senate.
this is the I think the upside of crypto in some ways, also the upside of prize picks or gambling poker. It's the upside of Robinhood and Coinbase and all these things being available. This generation, generation bet, like they love to gamble these young kids.
There is a bill that passed the last Congress in the House, but Biden basically, he didn't veto it, but he basically, he and the Democrats stopped in the Senate, the Democrats did. It was called FIT 21 And it was authored by French Hill, who's now the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee. So we expect that he will be introducing a new version of his bill, probably in the next few weeks. I don't think I'm breaking any news by saying this. I think people expect it. And that's going to provide the framework for market structure.
This was basically a statement of commitment from the chairs of the four committees that we're going to get legislation done this year, maybe in the next six months. I mean, that's really the goal. And we've never had that before. So that is pretty monumental.
The main thing it does is it forms an internal working group with the goal of making the US the world leader in crypto. ... And the members of this working group are going to be, there's me, there's the head of the SEC, the Secretary of the Treasury, and all the agencies and departments that have an interest in crypto.
AA
Aaron Levie
oppose ×2
▲ on
🏛️ Crypto owners become a swing bloc and force a pro-crypto framework
E208 · 2024-12-20
▶ 16:22
But there's like, I don't think you could get 10 crypto people to agree on how you regulate that second category because some people believe I should be able to issue an NFT on anything and I should be able to trade that.
But anyways, the point is, if Sacks can really push the adoption of stable coins, number one, and then number two, is to incentivize much, much cheaper transactional rails, then I think he can go to Bitcoin and these other more long-tail crypto projects off of a back of momentum.
KE
Keith Rabois
support ×2
▲ on
🏛️ Crypto owners become a swing bloc and force a pro-crypto framework
E207 · 2024-12-13
▶ 1:05:07
I think a lot of people had been hesitant to start new crypto companies, and there's a belief and confidence in the new administration, the SEC, etc.
JO
Joe Lonsdale
support ×3
▲ on
🏛️ Crypto owners become a swing bloc and force a pro-crypto framework
E206 · 2024-12-07
▶ 20:58
And the reason they're that angry at them is they were purposely not defining the rules in certain cases and then going after people after not having to find it in order to kind of like play a gotcha game. It was very dishonorable. And Paul sees all that and there's no way he's going to allow that
But you're not free to create a token, right? There should be some clear path of regulation for that.
I think there's many more traditional forms of economic growth that we can have before we need to make ICOs legal and easier.
The deregulatory nature on its own benefits markets that have been encumbered by regulatory oversight and regulatory challenges like crypto, finance and fintech. Those types of businesses are clearly going to benefit or expected to benefit significantly by being able to launch products more quickly and have features and ways that they can generate revenue that they might be challenged to do under the current regulatory schemas.
So look, the bottom line here is that I think that we are close to having clear rules of the road codified by Congress, which is what the crypto industry has been asking for. And the days of Gensler terrorizing crypto companies by issuing Wells notices without clarifying what the rules are that he is prosecuting, those days are about to be over. So I think this is why the crypto markets are rallying.
they're actively trading on the side something, crypto, options, whatever. They're on Robinhood, they're using Coinbase
I call them gen bet because they just want to bet on themselves
MA
Mark Cuban
support ×3
▲ on
🏛️ Crypto owners become a swing bloc and force a pro-crypto framework
E198 · 2024-10-03
▶ 1:19:52
I've literally talked to Kamala Harris at lunch about this specific topic of regulation through litigation. As a lawyer, she got it immediately and she knows it's a problem. She's even mentioned in one of her speeches that that's something that they're going to deal with.
You got the crypto guys who just want a framework. They just want the government to tell them how to operate and they can't get that.