🏛️ AI regulation pushes model development offshore - bet on India
The Biden AI executive order (and the EU's draft act) regulate systems and methods - parameter thresholds, self-reporting, government audits of private compute - rather than outcomes and applications, which is unworkable and obsolete within a few years. The burden lands only on US developers while the models, weights and tooling are already public, so development, talent and capital migrate to India, China, Singapore and other jurisdictions and America's AI lead erodes.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 49.3 WATCH
EMBER
band
▲ LONG INDA
expression · bullish politics-market
PARTIAL
outcome · R +24.3% · α -8.9%
2024-11-03
window closed
also touching these tickers, same direction: Apple relocates US-bound iPhone assembly to India on the stated 18-month timeline 8 (INDA)
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2023-11-03 → 2024-11-03 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG INDA (primary play). INDA rose 24.3% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +24.3% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +33.1% → α = +24.3 − (+33.1) = -8.9% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5▶ PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0· MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a PARTIAL earn 0.5 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Friedberg, Sacks
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2023-11-03)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | INDA | etf | PRIMARY | Friedberg's explicit 'good time to bet on India' - Indian equities as the named offshore beneficiary |
| ▲ LONG | INDY | etf | adjacent | India large-cap exposure, same thesis different wrapper |
| ▲ LONG | KWEB | etf | adjacent | China internet/AI names, the other jurisdiction named as gaining while the US self-handicaps |
Mention log
Friedberg
politics-market w=0.84 · n=74
· E152 (2023-11-03) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 47:48
SUPPORT
“If we don't allow our market to develop in the United States, India and China and Singapore and other markets will get well ahead of us in terms of their model development and their capabilities as a nation and their capabilities as an industry.”
Friedberg
politics-market w=0.84 · n=74
· E178 (2024-05-10) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 45:07
SUPPORT
“Basically, the California legislation that's proposed and some of the federal legislation that's been proposed basically requires the government to audit a model, to audit software, to audit and review the parameters and the weightings of the model. Then you need their check mark in order to deploy it for commercial or public use.”
SA
Sam Altman
(guest ×0.5)
no politics-market track record
· E178 (2024-05-10) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 46:21
SUPPORT
“the reason I have pushed for an agency-based approach for the big picture stuff and not write it in law, is I don't, in 12 months, it will all be written wrong”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -58.0 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E152 2023-11-03 | init | +35.2 | 35.2 | E152 born by Friedberg (explicit_prediction x3) [w=0.84] |
| E152 2023-11-03 | reinforce | +14.1 | 49.3 | E152 Sacks support x2 (new voice) [w=0.97] |
| E156 2023-12-08 | decay | -2.0 | 47.3 | E156 silent |
| E157 2023-12-16 | decay | -1.9 | 45.4 | E157 silent |
| E158 2023-12-23 | decay | -1.8 | 43.6 | E158 silent |
| E159 2023-12-29 | decay | -1.7 | 41.9 | E159 silent |
| E160 2024-01-06 | decay | -1.7 | 40.2 | E160 silent |
| E161 2024-01-13 | decay | -1.6 | 38.6 | E161 silent |
| E162 2024-01-19 | decay | -1.5 | 37.0 | E162 silent |
| E163 2024-01-26 | decay | -1.5 | 35.5 | E163 silent |
| E164 2024-02-02 | decay | -1.4 | 34.1 | E164 silent |
| E165 2024-02-09 | decay | -1.4 | 32.8 | E165 silent |
| E166 2024-02-16 | decay | -1.3 | 31.4 | E166 silent |
| E167 2024-02-23 | decay | -1.3 | 30.2 | E167 silent |
| E168 2024-03-01 | decay | -1.2 | 29.0 | E168 silent |
| E169 2024-03-08 | decay | -1.2 | 27.8 | E169 silent |
| E170 2024-03-15 | decay | -1.1 | 26.7 | E170 silent |
| E171 2024-03-22 | decay | -1.1 | 25.6 | E171 silent |
| E172 2024-03-29 | decay | -1.0 | 24.6 | E172 silent |
| E173 2024-04-05 | decay | -1.0 | 23.6 | E173 silent |
| E174 2024-04-12 | decay | -0.9 | 22.7 | E174 silent |
| E175 2024-04-19 | decay | -0.9 | 21.8 | E175 silent |
| E176 2024-04-26 | decay | -0.9 | 20.9 | E176 silent |
| E177 2024-05-03 | decay | -0.8 | 20.1 | E177 silent |
| E178 2024-05-10 | reinforce | +12.1 | 32.1 | E178 Friedberg support x3 [w=0.84] |
| E178 2024-05-10 | reinforce | +7.6 | 39.8 | E178 Sam Altman support x2 (new voice) [w=0.50] |
| E179 2024-05-17 | decay | -1.6 | 38.2 | E179 silent |
| E180 2024-05-24 | decay | -1.5 | 36.6 | E180 silent |
| E181 2024-05-31 | decay | -1.5 | 35.2 | E181 silent |
| E182 2024-06-07 | reinforce | +8.1 | 43.3 | E182 Friedberg support x2 [w=0.84] |
| E183 2024-06-14 | decay | -1.7 | 41.6 | E183 silent |
| E184 2024-06-20 | decay | -1.7 | 39.9 | E184 silent |
| E185 2024-06-29 | decay | -1.6 | 38.3 | E185 silent |
| E186 2024-07-04 | decay | -1.5 | 36.8 | E186 silent |
| E187 2024-07-12 | decay | -1.5 | 35.3 | E187 silent |
| E188 2024-07-19 | decay | -1.4 | 33.9 | E188 silent |
| E189 2024-07-26 | decay | -1.4 | 32.6 | E189 silent |
| E190 2024-08-02 | decay | -1.3 | 31.3 | E190 silent |
| E191 2024-08-09 | decay | -1.3 | 30.0 | E191 silent |
| E192 2024-08-16 | decay | -1.2 | 28.8 | E192 silent |
| E193 2024-08-23 | decay | -1.2 | 27.7 | E193 silent |
| E194 2024-08-30 | decay | -1.1 | 26.5 | E194 silent |
| E195 2024-09-06 | decay | -1.1 | 25.5 | E195 silent |
| E196 2024-09-20 | decay | -1.0 | 24.5 | E196 silent |
| E197 2024-09-27 | decay | -1.0 | 23.5 | E197 silent |
| E198 2024-10-03 | decay | -0.9 | 22.5 | E198 silent |
| E199 2024-10-11 | decay | -0.9 | 21.6 | E199 silent |
| E200 2024-10-18 | decay | -0.9 | 20.8 | E200 silent |
| E201 2024-10-25 | decay | -0.8 | 19.9 | E201 silent |
| E202 2024-11-01 | decay | -0.8 | 19.1 | E202 silent |