🪙 Post-halving cycle plus ETF flows reprice Bitcoin against gold

⚖ Why this result

fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set

1. Window: 2024-05-31 → 2025-05-31 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
2. The call: ▲ LONG cg:bitcoin (primary play). cg:bitcoin rose 55.0% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = +55.0% (the call made money).
3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +13.2% → vs SPY = +55.0 − (+13.2) = +41.9% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
4. Rule fired:
   ▶ RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+ ✓ (return 55.0, vs SPY 41.9)

   · HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all

   · WRONG — everything else
5. Credit: supporters of a RIGHT earn 1.0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath, Friedberg, Gavin Baker, Joe Lonsdale, Sacks | proxy-sensitive: COIN→PARTIAL (+9.2%)

each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Chamath 53%

3 scoring events · 58% of moves

+62.6 → net +62.6

Friedberg 58%

2 scoring events · 21% of moves

+22.2 → net +22.2

Sacks 58%

1 scoring event · 12% of moves

+13.1 → net +13.1

Gavin Baker regular guest ×1.0

1 scoring event · 5% of moves

+4.9 → net +4.9

Joe Lonsdale regular guest ×1.0

1 scoring event · 4% of moves

+4.3 → net +4.3

⏳ decay drained -72.0 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one