🏛️ Third-party candidates take a Perot-plus share of the 2024 vote, at Biden's expense

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E159 (2023-12-29) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 17:59 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo

“There's a lot more protest votes today. There's just a lot of reasons where RFK can garner a lot of support and build a plurality among centrists.”

Jason politics-market w=1.00 · n=62 · E159 (2023-12-29) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 18:18 SUPPORT

“Third party candidates for me is the biggest surprise. And I do think it could have a meaningful impact.”

Jason politics-market w=1.00 · n=62 · E163 (2024-01-26) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:03:37 SUPPORT

“And that's why Trump and RFK are just crushing it in the polls.”

Jason politics-market w=1.00 · n=62 · E166 (2024-02-16) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:16:02 SUPPORT

“Third party is seeming more and more viable as we've talked about here. People forget the case of Ross Perot getting 19 percent, RFK looking pretty favorable”

Friedberg politics-market w=0.84 · n=74 · E166 (2024-02-16) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:22:27 OPPOSE

“Third party candidate can't win in the system.”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E166 (2024-02-16) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:28:18 SUPPORT

“there is a very reasonable chance, and I would put reasonable somewhere between 30 and 50%, that this third party gets created after the presidential election ... if RFK can get 30 plus percent support, which in some states I think you will”

Jason politics-market w=1.00 · n=62 · E172 (2024-03-29) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 42:17 SUPPORT

“this seems really like it's going to damage Biden, which was my original prediction. And that reason why a lot of the right wing were supporting RFK was because they wanted, they saw this as a clear path to take away a couple of points from Biden. ... I think they could peel off a couple of percentage points in those states.”

Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E172 (2024-03-29) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 42:31 SUPPORT

“First part of what you said is 100% right. I'm not sure that a bunch of Republicans are going to get organized, J Cal, to vote for RFK in that way.”

Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E172 (2024-03-29) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 41:34 SUPPORT

“I think what you're going to see is that lawyers from the DNC and the Biden campaign are going to fight tooth and nail to keep this ticket off the ballot, at least in the major contested states, like the five or six states where the presidency will be decided in 2024”