← pool · child of The space industrial age — Apollo's semiconductor payoff, round two
📈 Virgin Galactic starts commercial flights within two to three quarters
Chamath, from inside the company, says the Branson flight was the last data-gathering step and commercial passenger operations begin in the next two or three quarters.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 42.0 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▲ LONG SPCE
expression · bullish equities
WRONG
result · return -70.2% · vs SPY -72.7%
2022-04-16
born 2021-07-16 (E40) → window closed
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-07-16 → 2022-04-16 — first mention + 9-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG SPCE (primary play). SPCE fell 70.2% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = -70.2% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +2.5% → vs SPY = -70.2 − (+2.5) = -72.7% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
- Rule fired:
· RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+· HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all▶ WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a WRONG earn 0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-07-16)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | SPCE | stock | PRIMARY | commercial revenue start is the entire equity story |
Mention log newest first
Chamath
equities 42% · n=163
· E40 (2021-07-16) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 1:04:28
SUPPORT
· horizon 9mo
“No, I feel really confident that we know what we're doing. This flight was so critical because it was about figuring out what it was like to have passengers in the back and how they would all behave when you had multiple folks. I think once that readout is done and Richard apparently took a bunch of notes, we'll be starting commercial ops, I think, the next two or three quarters.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -31.5 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E40 2021-07-16 | init | +42.0 | 42.0 | E40 born by Chamath (explicit_prediction x3) |
| E41 2021-07-23 | decay | -1.7 | 40.3 | E41 silent |
| E42 2021-07-30 | decay | -1.6 | 38.7 | E42 silent |
| E43 2021-08-06 | decay | -1.5 | 37.2 | E43 silent |
| E44 2021-08-28 | decay | -1.5 | 35.7 | E44 silent |
| E45 2021-09-04 | decay | -1.4 | 34.2 | E45 silent |
| E46 2021-09-14 | decay | -1.4 | 32.9 | E46 silent |
| E47 2021-09-18 | decay | -1.3 | 31.6 | E47 silent |
| E49 2021-10-02 | decay | -1.3 | 30.3 | E49 silent |
| E50 2021-10-09 | decay | -1.2 | 29.1 | E50 silent |
| E51 2021-10-16 | decay | -1.2 | 27.9 | E51 silent |
| E52 2021-10-23 | decay | -1.1 | 26.8 | E52 silent |
| E53 2021-10-30 | decay | -1.1 | 25.7 | E53 silent |
| E54 2021-11-06 | decay | -1.0 | 24.7 | E54 silent |
| E55 2021-11-13 | decay | -1.0 | 23.7 | E55 silent |
| E56 2021-11-20 | decay | -0.9 | 22.8 | E56 silent |
| E57 2021-12-04 | decay | -0.9 | 21.9 | E57 silent |
| E58 2021-12-11 | decay | -0.9 | 21.0 | E58 silent |
| E59 2021-12-17 | decay | -0.8 | 20.1 | E59 silent |
| E60 2021-12-23 | decay | -0.8 | 19.3 | E60 silent |
| E61 2021-12-29 | decay | -0.8 | 18.6 | E61 silent |
| E62 2022-01-08 | decay | -0.7 | 17.8 | E62 silent |
| E63 2022-01-15 | decay | -0.7 | 17.1 | E63 silent |
| E64 2022-01-22 | decay | -0.7 | 16.4 | E64 silent |
| E65 2022-01-29 | decay | -0.7 | 15.8 | E65 silent |
| E66 2022-02-05 | decay | -0.6 | 15.1 | E66 silent |
| E67 2022-02-12 | decay | -0.6 | 14.5 | E67 silent |
| E68 2022-02-19 | decay | -0.6 | 13.9 | E68 silent |
| E70 2022-02-24 | decay | -0.6 | 13.4 | E70 silent |
| E71 2022-03-05 | decay | -0.5 | 12.9 | E71 silent |
| E72 2022-03-19 | decay | -0.5 | 12.3 | E72 silent |
| E73 2022-03-26 | decay | -0.5 | 11.8 | E73 silent |
| E74 2022-04-01 | decay | -0.5 | 11.4 | E74 silent |
| E75 2022-04-09 | decay | -0.5 | 10.9 | E75 silent |
| E76 2022-04-16 | decay | -0.4 | 10.5 | E76 silent |