The receipts
what they said vs what the tape actually did · nothing gets quietly deleted
SHOWING
Green grade = the 162 calls that ever cleared the green gate (65 with two voices behind it),
i.e. the only ones this system would have put in front of you. The other
364 never cleared the gate — they're kept because they're the
control that proves the gate means anything, not because you'd have traded them.
-9.6%
green calls · avg vs SPY
65W · 29P · 68L
n=162
+23.9%
▲ LONG greens · avg vs SPY
40W · 17P · 18L
n=75
-38.4%
▼ SHORT greens · avg vs SPY
25W · 12P · 50L
n=87
Closed calls · sorted by result
bar = vs SPY: right of centre beat simply holding SPY over the same window, left lost to it (long SPY is the benchmark for shorts too) · return = what the call itself made
▲ LONG
NVDA
NVDA
🤖 Inference cost is the gate on AI search — 10x too expensive today
2023-02-11 → 2025-02-11 · 24mo
+459%
R +510%
RIGHT
▲ LONG
NVDA
NVDA
🤖 Moore's law never ended - it moved to GPUs and expert systems go next level
2022-09-01 → 2023-09-01 · 12mo
+233%
R +248%
RIGHT
▲ LONG
MP
MP
🛢️ Targeted tariffs act as a reverse subsidy that makes US critical-minerals supply chains investable
2024-12-13 → 2025-12-13 · 12mo
+178%
R +193%
RIGHT
▲ LONG
NVDA
NVDA
🤖 Generative AI is the next Silicon Valley bubble cycle
2022-12-03 → 2023-12-03 · 12mo
+165%
R +182%
RIGHT
▲ LONG
META
META
🏛️ TikTok crackdown impairs ByteDance and hands share back to US platforms
2023-01-20 → 2024-01-20 · 12mo
+151%
R +175%
RIGHT
▲ LONG
ZIM
ZIM
🌍 Red Sea blockade spikes freight rates and re-ignites goods inflation
2023-12-23 → 2024-12-23 · 12mo
+128%
R +154%
RIGHT
▲ LONG
META
META
🤖 Twitter's riff proves big tech is overstaffed - lean-opex reset ahead
2022-10-07 → 2023-10-07 · 12mo
+116%
R +136%
RIGHT
▲ LONG
HOOD
HOOD
📈 Gamified retail speculation overwhelms fundamental price-setting
2024-03-29 → 2025-03-29 · 12mo
+108%
R +116%
RIGHT
▲ LONG
INTC
INTC
🏛️ Washington starts taking equity and royalties in exchange for permits and grants
2025-01-25 → 2026-01-25 · 12mo
+106%
R +122%
RIGHT
▼ SHORT
ARKK
ARKK
🌍 Fed ending QE drains liquidity-dependent assets in 2022
2021-12-29 → 2022-12-29 · 12mo
+85%
R +67%
RIGHT
▼ SHORT
BTC-USD
BTC-USD
🪙 Crypto bubble bursts in 2022 — 90% of projects blow up
2021-12-29 → 2022-12-29 · 12mo
+83%
R +64%
RIGHT
▼ SHORT
META
META
🤖 The metaverse/Web3 label is empty hype — Meta's pivot is the loser trade
2021-12-23 → 2022-12-23 · 12mo
+82%
R +65%
RIGHT
▲ LONG
XLE
XLE
⚡ Global conflict era begins — energy and defense outperform
2021-12-29 → 2022-12-29 · 12mo
+81%
R +63%
RIGHT
▲ LONG
DJT
DJT
🏛️ Third-party candidates take a Perot-plus share of the 2024 vote, at Biden's expense
2023-12-29 → 2024-12-29 · 12mo
+79%
R +106%
RIGHT
▼ SHORT
IPO
IPO
📈 2021 is the peak of the risk-capital golden era
2021-10-02 → 2022-10-02 · 12mo
+70%
R +54%
RIGHT
▼ SHORT
IPO
IPO
📈 Low-diligence capital breeds a fraud wave in the venture-backed cohort
2021-09-04 → 2022-09-04 · 12mo
+67%
R +55%
RIGHT
▼ SHORT
KWEB
KWEB
🏛️ China goes for the jugular on its own tech founders
2021-05-22 → 2022-05-22 · 12mo
+64%
R +58%
RIGHT
▲ LONG
META
META
🤖 Open-source models commoditize the model layer and move to the edge
2023-05-19 → 2024-05-19 · 12mo
+64%
R +92%
RIGHT
▼ SHORT
PTON
PTON
📈 Pandemic pull-forward reverses — COVID winners take an estimate double-whammy
2022-02-24 → 2023-02-24 · 12mo
+61%
R +55%
RIGHT
▼ SHORT
IPO
IPO
📈 The SPAC boom's back end breaks into the 2022 shot clock
2021-04-01 → 2022-11-01 · 19mo
+58%
R +56%
RIGHT
▲ LONG
AVAV
AVAV
🏛️ Broken cost-plus procurement forces a shift to new-entrant defense tech
2023-10-13 → 2024-10-13 · 12mo
+57%
R +93%
RIGHT
▼ SHORT
LYFT
LYFT
📈 The negative-unit-economics growth playbook dies with free capital
2022-05-23 → 2023-05-23 · 12mo
+54%
R +60%
RIGHT
▼ SHORT
ARKK
ARKK
🏛️ Doubling cap gains drains risk capital — the speculative end reprices
2021-04-23 → 2022-04-23 · 12mo
+54%
R +57%
RIGHT
▼ SHORT
IPO
IPO
📈 Late-stage private marks reset 30-60% — down-round IPOs become the norm
2022-03-26 → 2023-03-26 · 12mo
+50%
R +38%
RIGHT
▲ LONG
URA
URA
⚡ US nuclear power buildout gets announced in 2025
2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 · 12mo
+49%
R +65%
RIGHT
▲ LONG
GOOGL
GOOGL
🤖 Google's AI comeback pays off in 2025
2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 · 12mo
+45%
R +61%
RIGHT
▼ SHORT
TSM
TSM
🏛️ China takes Taiwan and the silicon chokepoint forces US intervention
2021-09-14 → 2022-09-14 · 12mo
+44%
R +34%
RIGHT
▲ LONG
DBC
DBC
🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it)
2021-03-06 → 2022-03-06 · 12mo
+43%
R +58%
RIGHT
▼ SHORT
cg:dogecoin
cg:dogecoin
🪙 Memecoins are negative-sum rug-pull machines
2025-02-21 → 2026-02-21 · 12mo
+43%
R +59%
RIGHT
▲ LONG
MSFT
MSFT
🤖 OpenAI is 2023's biggest winner — Microsoft deal inevitable
2023-01-06 → 2024-01-06 · 12mo
+43%
R +65%
RIGHT
▲ LONG
MSFT
MSFT
🤖 Foundation models are a big-tech oligopoly - the substrate gets given away
2023-01-13 → 2024-01-13 · 12mo
+42%
R +64%
RIGHT
▲ LONG
cg:bitcoin
cg:bitcoin
🪙 Post-halving cycle plus ETF flows reprice Bitcoin against gold
2024-05-31 → 2025-05-31 · 12mo
+42%
R +55%
RIGHT
▲ LONG
NVDA
NVDA
🏛️ Gulf capital realigns to a US bloc, displacing China's Belt and Road
2025-05-17 → 2026-05-17 · 12mo
+41%
R +66%
RIGHT
▼ SHORT
DJT
DJT
🏛️ Harris is the only feasible replacement if Biden leaves the ticket
2024-07-04 → 2024-10-04 · 3mo
+40%
R +43%
RIGHT
▼ SHORT
SPY
SPY
🌍 Supply-chain crunch tips the US into 1970s-style stagflation next year
2021-10-16 → 2022-10-16 · 12mo
+38%
R +19%
RIGHT
▼ SHORT
JETS
JETS
🌍 Delta is not the last one — more variants this fall, a tough winter
2021-06-25 → 2022-06-25 · 12mo
+37%
R +30%
RIGHT
▲ LONG
ITB
ITB
🏛️ Blue-state permitting has broken housing construction — building migrates to light-regulation states
2022-08-20 → 2023-08-20 · 12mo
+36%
R +43%
RIGHT
▲ LONG
NYT
NYT
🏛️ AI's training data gets a copyright bill - citations, links and licences
2023-01-13 → 2026-01-13 · 36mo
+35%
R +116%
RIGHT
▲ LONG
META
META
📈 Meta's profit engine plus buybacks makes its AI option value free
2024-02-09 → 2025-02-09 · 12mo
+32%
R +53%
RIGHT
▼ SHORT
ARKK
ARKK
📈 Rising rates de-rate high-multiple growth stocks
2021-03-06 → 2022-03-06 · 12mo
+30%
R +45%
RIGHT
▼ SHORT
BYND
BYND
📈 Cellular meat is uneconomic this cycle - alternative protein is a value trap
2023-04-28 → 2024-04-28 · 12mo
+29%
R +53%
RIGHT
▼ SHORT
SPY
SPY
🌍 Everything is at all-time highs and the insiders are selling - de-risk
2021-11-13 → 2022-11-13 · 12mo
+27%
R +13%
RIGHT
▲ LONG
LOPE
LOPE
🏛️ Loan forgiveness without reform keeps the tuition gravy train running
2022-08-26 → 2023-08-26 · 12mo
+25%
R +35%
RIGHT
▲ LONG
DBC
DBC
🌍 Deglobalization reflates the world and shocks rates
2021-02-20 → 2022-02-20 · 12mo
+24%
R +37%
RIGHT
▼ SHORT
V
V
📈 Visa/Mastercard at peak market cap — Web3 rails eat the 2-3% tax
2021-12-29 → 2022-12-29 · 12mo
+22%
R +4%
HALF
▼ SHORT
NYT
NYT
📈 The intermediary layer of traditional media is being dismantled
2021-05-31 → 2022-05-31 · 12mo
+20%
R +20%
RIGHT
▼ SHORT
CNXC
CNXC
📈 AI agents gut the outsourced customer-support industry
2024-03-01 → 2025-03-01 · 12mo
+20%
R +37%
RIGHT
▲ LONG
PWR
PWR
📈 Blue-collar trades boom and a rising premium on human service
2024-09-27 → 2025-09-27 · 12mo
+20%
R +37%
RIGHT
▲ LONG
AAPL
AAPL
🤖 Models commoditize — proprietary data is the only AI moat
2022-12-03 → 2025-12-03 · 36mo
+18%
R +97%
RIGHT
▼ SHORT
BAH
BAH
📈 Government service providers get DOGE'd in 2025
2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 · 12mo
+18%
R +34%
RIGHT
▼ SHORT
IWM
IWM
🌍 America's accidental UBI creates a national labor shortage and throttles growth
2021-05-13 → 2022-05-13 · 12mo
+17%
R +17%
RIGHT
▲ LONG
KWEB
KWEB
📈 Chinese tech stocks are 2025's best asset
2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 · 12mo
+17%
R +33%
RIGHT
▲ LONG
DJT
DJT
🏛️ Harris surge is a vibes bump — Trump favored to win November
2024-08-16 → 2024-11-16 · 3mo
+16%
R +22%
RIGHT
▼ SHORT
AAPL
AAPL
📈 Internal political activism degrades big-tech operating results (Apple)
2021-10-02 → 2022-10-02 · 12mo
+16%
R +0%
HALF
▲ LONG
QQQ
QQQ
🤖 Own the top 30% of global tech and hold it five to ten years
2021-04-17 → 2026-04-17 · 60mo
+14%
R +97%
RIGHT
▼ SHORT
PFE
PFE
📈 COVID vaccine reckoning collapses trust in vaccination
2023-01-27 → 2024-01-27 · 12mo
+12%
R +34%
RIGHT
▲ LONG
GLD
GLD
🌍 Debt-service trap: the Fed can't really fight inflation, so we monetize and debase
2021-10-16 → 2022-10-16 · 12mo
+12%
R -7%
HALF
▲ LONG
CRM
CRM
🤖 The software recession is over — net new ARR re-accelerates
2023-12-08 → 2024-12-08 · 12mo
+11%
R +45%
RIGHT
▼ SHORT
XRT
XRT
📈 Over-ordering unwinds into an inventory glut that craters mid-market retail
2022-02-05 → 2023-02-05 · 12mo
+11%
R +5%
HALF
▼ SHORT
WBD
WBD
📈 Hollywood's strikes are a fight over a shrinking pie
2023-07-27 → 2024-07-27 · 12mo
+10%
R +32%
RIGHT
▲ LONG
META
META
🏛️ TikTok gets banned or force-divested and US platforms take the attention
2024-03-08 → 2025-03-08 · 12mo
+10%
R +24%
RIGHT
▲ LONG
MSFT
MSFT
🤖 AI collapses the cost of knowledge work to ten cents on the dollar
2023-04-28 → 2024-04-28 · 12mo
+9%
R +33%
RIGHT
▲ LONG
XLU
XLU
⚡ AI datacenter demand needs double-to-triple current US electricity generation
2024-06-20 → 2025-06-20 · 12mo
+9%
R +19%
RIGHT
▲ LONG
GOOGL
GOOGL
🏛️ A Google breakup unlocks value - sum of the parts beats the whole
2024-08-16 → 2025-08-16 · 12mo
+8%
R +26%
RIGHT
▼ SHORT
GOOGL
GOOGL
🏛️ The four big-tech monopolies get broken up by the end of the decade
2021-05-01 → 2022-05-01 · 12mo
+3%
R +3%
HALF
▲ LONG
DBA
DBA
🛢️ War plus fertilizer costs cause a global crop shortfall and famine in a year
2022-04-01 → 2023-04-01 · 12mo
+3%
R -6%
HALF
▲ LONG
PAVE
PAVE
🌍 Resilience beats efficiency - supply chains get de-centralized and reshored
2021-03-27 → 2022-03-27 · 12mo
+1%
R +17%
HALF
▲ LONG
SPY
SPY
🌍 Fed at zero for half a decade — get paid to be long equities
2020-09-09 → 2021-09-09 · 12mo
+0%
R +34%
RIGHT
▲ LONG
SPY
SPY
🏛️ Biden's 39.6% capital gains hike does not become law
2021-04-23 → 2022-04-23 · 12mo
+0%
R +4%
HALF
▲ LONG
SPY
SPY
🏛️ Debt-ceiling standoff resolves — they raise it and keep spending
2023-01-20 → 2024-01-20 · 12mo
+0%
R +24%
RIGHT
▲ LONG
SPY
SPY
🏛️ Regulators backstop all uninsured deposits within days
2023-03-11 → 2023-04-11 · 1mo
+0%
R +7%
HALF
▲ LONG
SPY
SPY
🌍 Risk-off overhang lifts - equities and high-beta growth rally
2023-11-03 → 2024-11-03 · 12mo
+0%
R +33%
RIGHT
▲ LONG
SPY
SPY
📈 Recession and an equity rally at the same time, because the Fed cuts
2024-08-09 → 2025-08-09 · 12mo
+0%
R +21%
RIGHT
▼ SHORT
BKNG
BKNG
🤖 Agents replace the browse-and-click layer and disintermediate consumer apps
2025-07-11 → 2026-07-11 · 12mo
-1%
R +21%
HALF
▲ LONG
XRT
XRT
🏛️ Trump's tariff threats are negotiating leverage and get settled down
2025-02-15 → 2026-02-15 · 12mo
-1%
R +12%
HALF
▲ LONG
AAPL
AAPL
🤖 AI value migrates from apps to the vertically integrated hardware/OS layer
2024-06-14 → 2026-06-14 · 24mo
-2%
R +38%
HALF
▲ LONG
COIN
COIN
🏛️ Crypto owners become a swing bloc and force a pro-crypto framework
2024-05-31 → 2025-05-31 · 12mo
-4%
R +9%
HALF
▲ LONG
IWM
IWM
🏛️ A second Trump term reflates growth via deregulation and lower corporate tax
2024-06-20 → 2025-06-20 · 12mo
-4%
R +6%
HALF
▲ LONG
GE
GE
📈 Deconglomeration wave - activists break up conglomerates and unlock value
2021-11-13 → 2022-11-13 · 12mo
-5%
R -19%
WRONG
▲ LONG
IPO
IPO
📈 This drawdown is the best vintage in a decade to build and deploy
2022-10-14 → 2023-10-14 · 12mo
-6%
R +16%
HALF
▼ SHORT
KRBN
KRBN
🏛️ The IRA kills the carbon tax — carbon markets and DAC are dead ends
2022-08-20 → 2023-08-20 · 12mo
-6%
R +1%
WRONG
▲ LONG
URA
URA
⚡ Energy crisis reverses green policy - nuclear and natural gas get rehabilitated
2022-07-08 → 2023-07-08 · 12mo
-6%
R +8%
HALF
▼ SHORT
FXI
FXI
🌍 China's growth engine breaks - property bust plus bank runs
2022-07-22 → 2023-07-22 · 12mo
-7%
R +9%
HALF
▼ SHORT
SLG
SLG
📈 Mamdani's New York drives capital flight and a property crash
2025-06-28 → 2026-06-28 · 12mo
-7%
R +12%
HALF
▲ LONG
TSLA
TSLA
🤖 2025 is the year of robots and autonomous hardware
2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 · 12mo
-10%
R +7%
HALF
▲ LONG
AMZN
AMZN
📈 Amazon buys One Medical cheap and levers it into a Prime healthcare stack
2022-07-22 → 2023-07-22 · 12mo
-10%
R +6%
HALF
▲ LONG
QQQ
QQQ
📈 Tech drawdown is in the eighth inning - the bottom is close
2022-01-22 → 2023-01-22 · 12mo
-11%
R -19%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
TLT
TLT
🏦 Inflation hasn't peaked and the terminal rate is above what's priced
2022-07-14 → 2023-07-14 · 12mo
-11%
R +10%
HALF
▼ SHORT
IPO
IPO
🏛️ A Democrat trifecta prices in the unrealized-gains wealth tax
2024-04-26 → 2025-04-26 · 12mo
-11%
R -1%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
SPY
SPY
🌍 Rate hikes bite with a lag - back in recession next year
2022-08-13 → 2023-08-13 · 12mo
-11%
R -6%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
STLA
STLA
📈 Traditional auto OEMs collapse into mega-mergers
2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 · 12mo
-12%
R +4%
WRONG
▲ LONG
SHY
SHY
🏦 A politicized Fed withholds the rate cuts the data justifies
2025-06-13 → 2025-12-13 · 6mo
-12%
R +2%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
KO
KO
🏛️ RFK's MAHA agenda puts a policy overhang on processed food and soda
2024-08-30 → 2025-08-30 · 12mo
-14%
R +2%
WRONG
▲ LONG
TLT
TLT
🏦 Inflation may not show up — breakevens are rolling over
2021-05-31 → 2022-05-31 · 12mo
-14%
R -14%
WRONG
▲ LONG
ITA
ITA
🏛️ Nobody's incentives point at de-escalation — the war economy ratchets up
2023-02-11 → 2024-02-11 · 12mo
-15%
R +8%
HALF
▲ LONG
NYT
NYT
🤖 Training-data owners (NYT, Reddit, X, YouTube) win 2024
2024-01-06 → 2025-01-06 · 12mo
-15%
R +12%
HALF
▲ LONG
BOTZ
BOTZ
🤖 General-purpose robotics finally works this cycle
2024-03-22 → 2025-03-22 · 12mo
-15%
R -5%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
ARKK
ARKK
🤖 A decade of zero rates under-trained a generation of operators
2022-10-22 → 2023-10-22 · 12mo
-15%
R -3%
WRONG
▲ LONG
TSLA
TSLA
🤖 Musk turns Twitter around fast - MAU value doubles or triples
2022-10-29 → 2023-10-29 · 12mo
-17%
R -9%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
IGV
IGV
🤖 The software industrial complex cracks in 2025
2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 · 12mo
-17%
R -1%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
TLT
TLT
🏦 Inflation stays sticky in 2023 — the wage chapter
2023-01-06 → 2024-01-06 · 12mo
-17%
R +5%
HALF
▼ SHORT
BX
BX
📈 Venture has to shrink to clear public-market alpha - fund sizes and GP count come down
2024-10-11 → 2025-10-11 · 12mo
-17%
R -3%
WRONG
▲ LONG
BIL
BIL
🏦 Cash + front-end T-bills are the place to be in 2023
2023-01-06 → 2024-01-06 · 12mo
-17%
R +5%
HALF
▼ SHORT
WBD
WBD
📈 The churn treadmill breaks standalone streaming subscriptions
2024-01-19 → 2025-01-19 · 12mo
-17%
R +8%
HALF
▼ SHORT
IPO
IPO
📈 SVB collapse is an extinction-level event that freezes startup funding
2023-03-11 → 2023-05-11 · 2mo
-18%
R -11%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
SNAP
SNAP
📈 Snap's zero-vote governance and stock-comp dilution keep destroying shareholder value
2024-02-09 → 2025-02-09 · 12mo
-20%
R +2%
WRONG
▲ LONG
UUP
UUP
🌍 Stablecoin dollarization entrenches the dollar's reserve status
2025-02-21 → 2026-02-21 · 12mo
-20%
R -4%
WRONG
▲ LONG
JETS
JETS
🌍 Delta variant is a non-event — no reopening reversal
2021-07-03 → 2022-01-03 · 6mo
-20%
R -9%
WRONG
▲ LONG
MSFT
MSFT
🤖 Generative video collapses content production cost
2024-02-16 → 2025-02-16 · 12mo
-22%
R +2%
WRONG
▲ LONG
USO
USO
⚡ The 2024 black swan is a wider Middle East war and an oil shock
2023-12-23 → 2024-12-23 · 12mo
-23%
R +4%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
TLT
TLT
🏦 The "Big, Beautiful Bill" delivers no real deficit cut and the long end reprices
2025-05-17 → 2026-05-17 · 12mo
-27%
R -2%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
F
F
📈 The UAW deal is existential for the unionized US automakers
2023-09-22 → 2024-09-22 · 12mo
-28%
R +6%
HALF
▼ SHORT
PCG
PCG
⚡ Brutal 2021 western fire season plus grid brownouts
2021-06-18 → 2021-12-18 · 6mo
-29%
R -18%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
MSGS
MSGS
📈 Star athletes take the equity off the sports owners
2023-06-10 → 2024-06-10 · 12mo
-31%
R -6%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
SFTBY
SFTBY
📈 Down-round IPOs wipe out the late-stage preference stack
2023-08-11 → 2024-08-11 · 12mo
-32%
R -10%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
KIE
KIE
📈 California's suppressed insurance rates break the market and land on the taxpayer
2025-01-11 → 2026-01-11 · 12mo
-32%
R -11%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
EUFN
EUFN
🌍 Europe eats the bill - energy crunch reopens the EU sovereign debt crisis
2022-06-24 → 2023-06-24 · 12mo
-32%
R -19%
WRONG
▲ LONG
BOTZ
BOTZ
🤖 Expensive labour pulls forward automation capex
2021-10-16 → 2022-10-16 · 12mo
-34%
R -53%
WRONG
▲ LONG
COIN
COIN
🪙 Dollar stablecoins are 2025's biggest business winner
2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 · 12mo
-34%
R -18%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
BXP
BXP
📈 Office commercial real estate reckoning — SF towers go to the banks
2023-01-06 → 2024-01-06 · 12mo
-35%
R -12%
WRONG
▲ LONG
PTON
PTON
📈 Private equity takes out the busted post-IPO cohort
2022-06-30 → 2023-06-30 · 12mo
-36%
R -16%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
TLT
TLT
🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis
2023-03-24 → 2025-03-24 · 24mo
-40%
R +9%
HALF
▲ LONG
TSLA
TSLA
🤖 Tesla's fleet-data moat wins general autonomy; Cruise and Waymo stay geofenced
2023-10-07 → 2024-10-07 · 12mo
-40%
R -7%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
IGV
IGV
🤖 Software without real lock-in loses its pricing power to AI-built clones
2024-01-13 → 2025-01-13 · 12mo
-42%
R -18%
WRONG
▲ LONG
XBI
XBI
📈 FDA's loosened approval bar creates markets — capital floods the biotech complex
2021-06-13 → 2022-06-13 · 12mo
-43%
R -54%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
GOOGL
GOOGL
🤖 Gemini's ideological tuning breaks Google's AI product
2024-02-23 → 2025-02-23 · 12mo
-45%
R -25%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
RSP
RSP
📈 AI adoption disperses the S&P — short the index, own the category killers
2025-06-21 → 2026-06-21 · 12mo
-45%
R -19%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
KRE
KRE
🏦 Regional banks still sick — Fed must extend BTFP
2024-01-06 → 2025-01-06 · 12mo
-47%
R -20%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
IGV
IGV
📈 Stock-based comp and Evergreen dilution get repriced
2022-06-30 → 2023-06-30 · 12mo
-48%
R -28%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
ESGU
ESGU
🏛️ Affirmative-action ruling propagates into corporate DEI and ESG
2023-07-01 → 2024-07-01 · 12mo
-49%
R -24%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
GOOGL
GOOGL
🤖 Natural-language chat disrupts Google's search box
2022-12-03 → 2023-12-03 · 12mo
-49%
R -33%
WRONG
▲ LONG
DJT
DJT
🏛️ The Mar-a-Lago raid makes Trump nearly unbeatable for the 2024 nomination
2022-08-13 → 2024-08-13 · 24mo
-49%
R -19%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
BA
BA
📈 Legacy defense primes (Boeing, Lockheed, RTX) lose 2025
2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 · 12mo
-49%
R -33%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
KRE
KRE
📈 SVB failure triggers deposit flight out of the regional banks
2023-03-11 → 2024-03-11 · 12mo
-50%
R -15%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
KR
KR
🏛️ Harris's federal food price-gouging ban is a discredited price control
2024-08-16 → 2025-08-16 · 12mo
-51%
R -34%
WRONG
▲ LONG
IRDM
IRDM
🤖 Pervasive satellite internet covers the whole earth within five years
2021-07-16 → 2026-07-16 · 60mo
-52%
R +35%
HALF
▼ SHORT
GM
GM
📈 Crony managerialism: debt-funded buybacks and EPS-linked comp produce marginal companies
2024-02-02 → 2025-02-02 · 12mo
-52%
R -28%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
XLY
XLY
🌍 The US consumer taps out in 2023 — recession unavoidable
2023-01-06 → 2024-01-06 · 12mo
-54%
R -32%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
AAPL
AAPL
📈 Peak Apple: a GDP-levered cyclical with no product optionality left
2024-03-08 → 2025-03-08 · 12mo
-55%
R -41%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
SPY
SPY
🌍 Soft-landing rally underprices the lag risk
2023-08-18 → 2024-08-18 · 12mo
-58%
R -29%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
BX
BX
📈 Private venture marks are stale by design — nobody is paid to fix them
2023-08-11 → 2024-08-11 · 12mo
-58%
R -37%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
GOOGL
GOOGL
🏛️ Section 230's algorithmic shield gets rolled back - platform liability overhang
2022-10-07 → 2023-10-07 · 12mo
-60%
R -39%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
FINX
FINX
📈 Fintech is fin, not tech — margins and multiples reckon
2024-01-26 → 2025-01-26 · 12mo
-63%
R -36%
WRONG
▲ LONG
cg:solana
cg:solana
🪙 Solana is the layer-1 that challenges Ethereum
2021-10-09 → 2022-10-09 · 12mo
-64%
R -79%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
NYT
NYT
📈 Legacy journalism is obsolete - the opinion economy takes the audience
2022-10-14 → 2023-10-14 · 12mo
-69%
R -47%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
NVDA
NVDA
🤖 DeepSeek proves frontier-model costs are collapsing
2025-01-25 → 2026-01-25 · 12mo
-75%
R -59%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
BX
BX
📈 Venture's alpha does not clear liquid alternatives — LP money leaves the asset class
2023-09-22 → 2024-09-22 · 12mo
-80%
R -46%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
GS
GS
🏛️ Speculative-competition antitrust blocks chill tech M&A
2023-12-08 → 2024-12-08 · 12mo
-109%
R -75%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
IPO
IPO
📈 Startup mass extinction event in late 2023 and 2024
2023-02-04 → 2025-02-04 · 24mo
-113%
R -62%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
META
META
🏛️ US antitrust is punitive politics, not competition policy - hot-button platforms carry the overhang
2022-09-17 → 2023-09-17 · 12mo
-119%
R -103%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
META
META
🤖 Big tech's growth era ends - cash-cow multiples and cost discipline
2022-10-01 → 2023-10-01 · 12mo
-135%
R -117%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
NVDA
NVDA
🏛️ Nvidia's Asia revenue is diverted China demand
2025-04-19 → 2026-04-19 · 12mo
-148%
R -108%
WRONG
▲ LONG
XYZ
XYZ
📈 Fintech feature consolidation: licensed platforms become consumer-finance superpowers
2021-08-06 → 2026-08-06 · 60mo
-157%
R -71%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
SLG
SLG
📈 WeWork's Chapter 11 resets its leases at 60 cents - landlords eat it, the distressed buyer wins
2023-11-03 → 2024-11-03 · 12mo
-162%
R -129%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
NVDA
NVDA
🤖 Inference cost collapse deflates OpenAI, LLM startups and Nvidia's multiple
2024-01-06 → 2025-01-06 · 12mo
-213%
R -186%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
NVDA
NVDA
🤖 AI capex outruns app-layer revenue - Nvidia's terminal-value problem
2024-02-23 → 2026-08-23 · 30mo
-228%
R -173%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
BZFD
BZFD
📈 Ad-supported legacy media is structurally dead
2024-01-26 → 2025-01-26 · 12mo
-266%
R -240%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
COIN
COIN
🪙 Crypto collapse triggers a multi-year enforcement and litigation wave
2022-06-24 → 2024-06-24 · 24mo
-282%
R -239%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
BTC-USD
BTC-USD
🪙 Crypto fails its bank-run test — liquidity is all correlated
2023-03-11 → 2024-03-11 · 12mo
-284%
R -250%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
COIN
COIN
🪙 SEC suits drive the US crypto exchanges offshore
2023-06-10 → 2024-06-10 · 12mo
-419%
R -394%
WRONG
▼ SHORT
TSM
TSM
🏛️ Taiwan's US protection expires as fabs onshore — TSMC carries the risk
2023-06-24 → 2026-06-24 · 36mo
-436%
R -359%
WRONG
By category
| category | n | avg vs SPY | right / half / wrong |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🛢️ commodities | 2 | +90.4% | 1/1/0 |
| ⚡ energy | 6 | +13.4% | 3/1/2 |
| 🌍 macro | 20 | +11.5% | 11/3/6 |
| 🤖 tech | 32 | +8.6% | 13/5/14 |
| 🏛️ politics-market | 34 | -9.1% | 16/7/11 |
| 📈 equities | 52 | -17.4% | 18/8/26 |
| 🏦 rates | 8 | -23.2% | 0/4/4 |
| 🪙 crypto | 8 | -114.5% | 3/0/5 |