◢ ALL-IN ALPHA research only · never trades · 2026-09-10

Track record

521 closed calls · predicted vs what the price actually did

-13.9%

all calls · avg alpha

167W · 83P · 271L n=521

+4.7%

▲ LONG calls · avg alpha

106W · 56P · 107L n=269

-33.8%

▼ SHORT calls · avg alpha

61W · 27P · 164L n=252

Every closed call · sorted by result

bar = alpha: right of centre beat the same-direction SPY trade, left lost to it · R = what the call itself returned

📈 Palantir's government/intelligence franchise is a good investment

2024-07-26 → 2025-07-26 · 12mo

+466%

R +484% HIT

🤖 Inference cost is the gate on AI search — 10x too expensive today

2023-02-11 → 2025-02-11 · 24mo

+459%

R +510% HIT

🤖 Moore's law never ended - it moved to GPUs and expert systems go next level

2022-09-01 → 2023-09-01 · 12mo

+233%

R +248% HIT

🤖 High-bandwidth memory makers are 2025's best asset

2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 · 12mo

+203%

R +219% HIT

🛢️ Targeted tariffs act as a reverse subsidy that makes US critical-minerals supply chains investable

2024-12-13 → 2025-12-13 · 12mo

+178%

R +193% HIT

🤖 Generative AI is the next Silicon Valley bubble cycle

2022-12-03 → 2023-12-03 · 12mo

+165%

R +182% HIT

🤖 Meta's best move is capping the metaverse bet and reallocating to AI

2023-01-13 → 2024-01-13 · 12mo

+152%

R +173% HIT

🏛️ TikTok crackdown impairs ByteDance and hands share back to US platforms

2023-01-20 → 2024-01-20 · 12mo

+151%

R +175% HIT

🌍 Red Sea blockade spikes freight rates and re-ignites goods inflation

2023-12-23 → 2024-12-23 · 12mo

+128%

R +154% HIT

🤖 Twitter's riff proves big tech is overstaffed - lean-opex reset ahead

2022-10-07 → 2023-10-07 · 12mo

+116%

R +136% HIT

📈 Gamified retail speculation overwhelms fundamental price-setting

2024-03-29 → 2025-03-29 · 12mo

+108%

R +116% HIT

🏛️ Washington starts taking equity and royalties in exchange for permits and grants

2025-01-25 → 2026-01-25 · 12mo

+106%

R +122% HIT

▲ LONG
BTC-USD

🪙 Bitcoin's most important year ever — ETFs take it mainstream

2024-01-06 → 2025-01-06 · 12mo

+105%

R +132% HIT

🌍 Vaccines ship in Q4 2020

2020-06-20 → 2020-12-20 · 6mo

+97%

R +117% HIT

▼ SHORT
cg:cardano

🪙 Picking individual tokens loses money — own managed/indexed crypto instead

2021-10-09 → 2022-10-09 · 12mo

+97%

R +81% HIT

📈 Trump's SPAC is a grift that does not hold its valuation

2021-10-23 → 2022-10-23 · 12mo

+97%

R +80% HIT

📈 Gig/supply platforms win 2023 as unemployment gets sticky

2023-01-06 → 2024-01-06 · 12mo

+96%

R +118% HIT

▼ SHORT
cg:shiba-inu

🪙 Meme coins are a blow-off top — take chips off the table

2021-10-30 → 2022-10-30 · 12mo

+96%

R +82% HIT

📈 Rivian at $100B+ is disconnected from reality

2021-11-13 → 2022-11-13 · 12mo

+90%

R +77% HIT

⚡ The US power bottleneck is turbines, transmission and storage, not generation

2025-07-04 → 2026-07-04 · 12mo

+89%

R +110% HIT

🌍 Fed ending QE drains liquidity-dependent assets in 2022

2021-12-29 → 2022-12-29 · 12mo

+85%

R +67% HIT

▼ SHORT
BTC-USD

🪙 Crypto bubble bursts in 2022 — 90% of projects blow up

2021-12-29 → 2022-12-29 · 12mo

+83%

R +64% HIT

🤖 The metaverse/Web3 label is empty hype — Meta's pivot is the loser trade

2021-12-23 → 2022-12-23 · 12mo

+82%

R +65% HIT

⚡ Global conflict era begins — energy and defense outperform

2021-12-29 → 2022-12-29 · 12mo

+81%

R +63% HIT

🏛️ Courts reverse agency overreach - the regulatory premium on tech and crypto compresses

2023-07-14 → 2024-07-14 · 12mo

+81%

R +107% HIT

📈 Movie theaters do not go out of business

2021-03-27 → 2022-03-27 · 12mo

+80%

R +96% HIT

🏛️ Third-party candidates take a Perot-plus share of the 2024 vote, at Biden's expense

2023-12-29 → 2024-12-29 · 12mo

+79%

R +106% HIT

🏛️ Counter-drone defense becomes the new procurement line

2024-04-12 → 2025-04-12 · 12mo

+77%

R +83% HIT

🏛️ Pharma ad ban plus FCC licence pressure guts broadcast TV

2024-11-16 → 2025-11-16 · 12mo

+75%

R +91% HIT

🤖 Creator and gig income absorbs the labor force - participation stats understate earning power

2022-11-05 → 2023-11-05 · 12mo

+74%

R +91% HIT

📈 Accelerated depreciation makes capital equipment the hot asset

2025-09-07 → 2026-09-07 · 12mo

+74%

R +94% HIT

📈 Zillow's iBuyer collapse is structural, not a stumble

2021-11-06 → 2022-11-06 · 12mo

+71%

R +53% HIT

🏛️ Financial deplatforming becomes the next big political fight

2021-08-06 → 2022-08-06 · 12mo

+71%

R +66% HIT

📈 Zymergen's implosion impairs the whole synthetic-biology cohort

2021-08-06 → 2022-08-06 · 12mo

+71%

R +65% HIT

📈 2021 is the peak of the risk-capital golden era

2021-10-02 → 2022-10-02 · 12mo

+70%

R +54% HIT

🏛️ Facebook Files become a tobacco-style liability event

2021-09-18 → 2022-09-18 · 12mo

+69%

R +59% HIT

📈 Low-diligence capital breeds a fraud wave in the venture-backed cohort

2021-09-04 → 2022-09-04 · 12mo

+67%

R +55% HIT

🏛️ China goes for the jugular on its own tech founders

2021-05-22 → 2022-05-22 · 12mo

+64%

R +58% HIT

🤖 Open-source models commoditize the model layer and move to the edge

2023-05-19 → 2024-05-19 · 12mo

+64%

R +92% HIT

📈 Adobe/Figma at $20B is a good deal - the 15-20% selloff is an overreaction

2022-09-17 → 2023-09-17 · 12mo

+63%

R +79% HIT

📈 Pandemic pull-forward reverses — COVID winners take an estimate double-whammy

2022-02-24 → 2023-02-24 · 12mo

+61%

R +55% HIT

🏛️ Big tech gets regulated as common carriers via a left-right deal

2021-06-18 → 2022-06-18 · 12mo

+61%

R +50% HIT

🤖 Apple's privacy push blows up the Google/Facebook ad model

2021-06-18 → 2022-06-18 · 12mo

+61%

R +50% HIT

📈 Tesla's 40% drawdown is mispriced against an on-plan Master Plan

2024-04-26 → 2025-04-26 · 12mo

+60%

R +69% HIT

🏛️ Florida's cultivated-meat ban spreads to other ranching states before federal preemption undoes it

2024-03-15 → 2026-03-15 · 24mo

+58%

R +91% HIT

📈 The SPAC boom's back end breaks into the 2022 shot clock

2021-04-01 → 2022-11-01 · 19mo

+58%

R +56% HIT

🏛️ Broken cost-plus procurement forces a shift to new-entrant defense tech

2023-10-13 → 2024-10-13 · 12mo

+57%

R +93% HIT

📈 Newsmax's post-IPO meme premium reverts

2025-04-05 → 2026-04-05 · 12mo

+56%

R +88% HIT

📈 Buy-now-pay-later is a feature, not a company

2021-08-06 → 2022-08-06 · 12mo

+56%

R +50% HIT

🤖 Meta's Project 92 takes Twitter's slot by paying creators and handing back data control

2023-06-16 → 2024-06-16 · 12mo

+55%

R +80% HIT

📈 California / San Francisco governance decline drives an exodus

2021-07-09 → 2022-07-09 · 12mo

+54%

R +45% HIT

📈 The negative-unit-economics growth playbook dies with free capital

2022-05-23 → 2023-05-23 · 12mo

+54%

R +60% HIT

🏛️ Doubling cap gains drains risk capital — the speculative end reprices

2021-04-23 → 2022-04-23 · 12mo

+54%

R +57% HIT

▲ LONG
cg:solana

🪙 Solana's post-FTX recovery runs - the besties are still holding

2023-12-29 → 2024-12-29 · 12mo

+52%

R +78% HIT

📈 Trump Media's meme premium unwinds once the float opens up

2024-03-29 → 2025-03-29 · 12mo

+51%

R +59% HIT

📈 The health halo on processed 'better-for-you' food is a scam

2022-08-26 → 2023-08-26 · 12mo

+51%

R +62% HIT

📈 Consumer comfort services (DoorDash, Airbnb, Uber) best asset of 2024

2024-01-06 → 2025-01-06 · 12mo

+51%

R +78% HIT

🏦 Fed and ECB are in a much tighter posture a year from now

2021-10-16 → 2022-10-16 · 12mo

+50%

R +31% HIT

📈 Rate-arbitrage fintechs implode as their cost of capital rises

2022-03-26 → 2023-03-26 · 12mo

+50%

R +38% HIT

📈 Late-stage private marks reset 30-60% — down-round IPOs become the norm

2022-03-26 → 2023-03-26 · 12mo

+50%

R +38% HIT

📈 Direct listings top-tick on the opening print — sell day one

2021-04-17 → 2022-04-17 · 12mo

+49%

R +56% HIT

⚡ US nuclear power buildout gets announced in 2025

2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 · 12mo

+49%

R +65% HIT

📈 Profitability plus buybacks is the setup for the tech turn

2023-10-27 → 2024-10-27 · 12mo

+45%

R +88% HIT

🤖 Google's AI comeback pays off in 2025

2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 · 12mo

+45%

R +61% HIT

🏛️ China takes Taiwan and the silicon chokepoint forces US intervention

2021-09-14 → 2022-09-14 · 12mo

+44%

R +34% HIT

🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it)

2021-03-06 → 2022-03-06 · 12mo

+43%

R +58% HIT

🤖 DeepSeek R1 was distilled from OpenAI, not a clean $6M cost breakthrough

2025-01-31 → 2026-01-31 · 12mo

+43%

R +59% HIT

📈 Content is commoditized — streaming margins compress

2021-05-31 → 2022-05-31 · 12mo

+43%

R +42% HIT

▼ SHORT
cg:dogecoin

🪙 Memecoins are negative-sum rug-pull machines

2025-02-21 → 2026-02-21 · 12mo

+43%

R +59% HIT

🤖 OpenAI is 2023's biggest winner — Microsoft deal inevitable

2023-01-06 → 2024-01-06 · 12mo

+43%

R +65% HIT

🤖 Foundation models are a big-tech oligopoly - the substrate gets given away

2023-01-13 → 2024-01-13 · 12mo

+42%

R +64% HIT

⚡ IRA energy tax credits survive repeal because AI needs the electrons

2025-03-08 → 2026-03-08 · 12mo

+42%

R +64% HIT

📈 GLP-1 obesity drugs go mass-market

2023-07-27 → 2024-07-27 · 12mo

+42%

R +64% HIT

🏛️ Gulf capital realigns to a US bloc, displacing China's Belt and Road

2025-05-17 → 2026-05-17 · 12mo

+41%

R +66% HIT

🤖 Cloud security is the gating constraint on hyperscaler growth

2024-07-19 → 2025-07-19 · 12mo

+40%

R +56% HIT

📈 Nvidia's receivables build is the Blackwell transition, not vendor financing

2025-03-29 → 2026-03-29 · 12mo

+40%

R +55% HIT

📈 Space sector is overfunded with one real customer

2021-08-28 → 2022-08-28 · 12mo

+40%

R +31% HIT

🏛️ Harris is the only feasible replacement if Biden leaves the ticket

2024-07-04 → 2024-10-04 · 3mo

+40%

R +43% HIT

🏛️ Arctic shipping-lane control is the real Greenland play

2025-01-11 → 2026-01-11 · 12mo

+40%

R +60% HIT

🤖 Apple licenses an outside frontier model (Gavin's pick: xAI/Grok) rather than building or bolting one on

2025-07-19 → 2026-07-19 · 12mo

+38%

R +58% HIT

🌍 Supply-chain crunch tips the US into 1970s-style stagflation next year

2021-10-16 → 2022-10-16 · 12mo

+38%

R +19% HIT

📈 GameStop mania ends very badly for late buyers

2021-01-30 → 2022-01-30 · 12mo

+37%

R +56% HIT

🌍 Delta is not the last one — more variants this fall, a tough winter

2021-06-25 → 2022-06-25 · 12mo

+37%

R +30% HIT

📈 MicroStrategy's convert-funded Bitcoin flywheel breaks at scale

2024-12-07 → 2025-12-07 · 12mo

+36%

R +51% HIT

🤖 Bottoms-up SaaS hits a growth wall — only the scaled platforms escape

2022-06-30 → 2023-06-30 · 12mo

+36%

R +55% HIT

🏛️ Blue-state permitting has broken housing construction — building migrates to light-regulation states

2022-08-20 → 2023-08-20 · 12mo

+36%

R +43% HIT

🏛️ Biden wins reelection on a strong economy

2024-03-22 → 2025-03-22 · 12mo

+36%

R +45% HIT

🏛️ AI's training data gets a copyright bill - citations, links and licences

2023-01-13 → 2026-01-13 · 36mo

+35%

R +116% HIT

🏛️ Regulatory and IP capture keeps US healthcare incumbents' rents intact

2021-09-14 → 2022-09-14 · 12mo

+35%

R +25% HIT

🌍 Milei's fiscal austerity makes Argentina the reform trade

2024-05-17 → 2025-05-17 · 12mo

+34%

R +47% HIT

🤖 CRISPR patent chaos gets routed around by open source

2022-03-05 → 2023-03-05 · 12mo

+33%

R +31% HIT

📈 Meta's profit engine plus buybacks makes its AI option value free

2024-02-09 → 2025-02-09 · 12mo

+32%

R +53% HIT

⚡ An Iran engagement escalates, doubles oil and derails the agenda

2025-06-13 → 2026-06-13 · 12mo

+31%

R +56% HIT

⚡ Europe has to replace Russian gas — US natural gas and LNG export is the answer

2022-02-24 → 2023-02-24 · 12mo

+30%

R +24% HIT

📈 Rising rates de-rate high-multiple growth stocks

2021-03-06 → 2022-03-06 · 12mo

+30%

R +45% HIT

📈 Agents replace the entry-level analyst — static team size at scale

2024-09-27 → 2025-09-27 · 12mo

+30%

R +47% HIT

📈 Fat-cell epigenetic memory makes obesity therapy chronic

2024-11-23 → 2025-11-23 · 12mo

+30%

R +41% HIT

🛢️ Carbon permits and carbon tariffs put a real price on emissions

2021-07-30 → 2022-07-30 · 12mo

+29%

R +25% HIT

📈 Cellular meat is uneconomic this cycle - alternative protein is a value trap

2023-04-28 → 2024-04-28 · 12mo

+29%

R +53% HIT

🌍 China's crackdown spirals its own economy down

2021-07-30 → 2022-07-30 · 12mo

+29%

R +24% HIT

🏛️ US-Russia proxy war escalates horizontally

2024-07-04 → 2025-07-04 · 12mo

+28%

R +42% HIT

🌍 Everything is at all-time highs and the insiders are selling - de-risk

2021-11-13 → 2022-11-13 · 12mo

+27%

R +13% HIT

📈 Boosters + oral antivirals become the standard COVID stack

2021-07-30 → 2022-07-30 · 12mo

+27%

R +22% HIT

📈 Google's rumoured HubSpot bid doesn't get done

2024-04-05 → 2025-04-05 · 12mo

+26%

R +25% HIT

🤖 Only foundation models can disrupt search - and Google is too far ahead

2022-11-19 → 2023-11-19 · 12mo

+26%

R +42% HIT

🏛️ Loan forgiveness without reform keeps the tuition gravy train running

2022-08-26 → 2023-08-26 · 12mo

+25%

R +35% HIT

🛢️ Global drought turns self-sufficient countries into food importers

2021-07-09 → 2022-07-09 · 12mo

+25%

R +15% HIT

🌍 Deglobalization reflates the world and shocks rates

2021-02-20 → 2022-02-20 · 12mo

+24%

R +37% HIT

▲ LONG
cg:ethereum

🪙 NFTs are a durable new asset class, not a liquidity bubble

2021-03-13 → 2022-03-13 · 12mo

+23%

R +31% HIT

▲ LONG
cg:ethereum

🪙 Everything with a title gets blockchained

2021-03-13 → 2022-03-13 · 12mo

+23%

R +31% HIT

🏛️ An FDA for AI — model deployment gets licensed at the compute layer

2023-04-14 → 2024-04-14 · 12mo

+23%

R +49% HIT

📈 Visa/Mastercard at peak market cap — Web3 rails eat the 2-3% tax

2021-12-29 → 2022-12-29 · 12mo

+22%

R +4% PARTIAL

📈 Gene-edited pig organs unlock an effectively infinite organ supply

2024-03-22 → 2025-03-22 · 12mo

+22%

R +32% HIT

🌍 US population stall - births plus immigration collapse throttles the economy

2022-04-01 → 2023-04-01 · 12mo

+21%

R +13% HIT

📈 Adobe takes the AI valuation retrade before Figma does

2025-07-04 → 2026-07-04 · 12mo

+20%

R +42% HIT

🌍 COVID a distant memory by summer 2021

2020-09-19 → 2021-06-19 · 9mo

+20%

R +49% HIT

🌍 Consumer credit bubble bursts into a credit crisis

2022-05-13 → 2023-05-13 · 12mo

+20%

R +24% HIT

📈 The intermediary layer of traditional media is being dismantled

2021-05-31 → 2022-05-31 · 12mo

+20%

R +20% HIT

📈 AI agents gut the outsourced customer-support industry

2024-03-01 → 2025-03-01 · 12mo

+20%

R +37% HIT

📈 Blue-collar trades boom and a rising premium on human service

2024-09-27 → 2025-09-27 · 12mo

+20%

R +37% HIT

🏛️ Washington intervention in retail fintech is the real overhang

2021-07-03 → 2022-07-03 · 12mo

+19%

R +9% PARTIAL

🤖 Models commoditize — proprietary data is the only AI moat

2022-12-03 → 2025-12-03 · 36mo

+18%

R +97% HIT

📈 Government service providers get DOGE'd in 2025

2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 · 12mo

+18%

R +34% HIT

🤖 ChatGPT plugins make OpenAI the next great computing platform

2023-03-31 → 2024-03-31 · 12mo

+18%

R +47% HIT

🌍 America's accidental UBI creates a national labor shortage and throttles growth

2021-05-13 → 2022-05-13 · 12mo

+17%

R +17% HIT

🤖 Pre-training scaling laws still hold — Colossus and Grok 3 are the proof

2024-12-07 → 2025-12-07 · 12mo

+17%

R +31% HIT

🏛️ US compute export controls keep China off the AI frontier from 2025

2024-12-07 → 2025-12-07 · 12mo

+17%

R +31% HIT

📈 Chinese tech stocks are 2025's best asset

2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 · 12mo

+17%

R +33% HIT

🏛️ Harris surge is a vibes bump — Trump favored to win November

2024-08-16 → 2024-11-16 · 3mo

+16%

R +22% HIT

📈 Internal political activism degrades big-tech operating results (Apple)

2021-10-02 → 2022-10-02 · 12mo

+16%

R +0% PARTIAL

🏛️ Escalating global conflict becomes the political outlet for inflation

2021-11-13 → 2022-11-13 · 12mo

+15%

R +1% PARTIAL

🌍 Nearshoring to Mexico as China's cheap-labour edge disappears

2022-05-24 → 2023-05-24 · 12mo

+15%

R +21% HIT

📈 Shopify's ecosystem equity stakes are free optionality in the sum of parts

2023-09-22 → 2024-09-22 · 12mo

+14%

R +48% HIT

🤖 Own the top 30% of global tech and hold it five to ten years

2021-04-17 → 2026-04-17 · 60mo

+14%

R +97% HIT

🏛️ Free community college squeezes the for-profit colleges

2021-05-01 → 2022-05-01 · 12mo

+13%

R +13% HIT

📈 Payment for order flow and market making survive the GameStop backlash

2021-02-13 → 2022-02-13 · 12mo

+13%

R +27% HIT

🤖 Nvidia forward-integrates into cloud and attacks the hyperscalers

2024-05-24 → 2025-05-24 · 12mo

+13%

R +23% HIT

📈 COVID vaccine reckoning collapses trust in vaccination

2023-01-27 → 2024-01-27 · 12mo

+12%

R +34% HIT

🌍 Debt-service trap: the Fed can't really fight inflation, so we monetize and debase

2021-10-16 → 2022-10-16 · 12mo

+12%

R -7% PARTIAL

🤖 The software recession is over — net new ARR re-accelerates

2023-12-08 → 2024-12-08 · 12mo

+11%

R +45% HIT

📈 Over-ordering unwinds into an inventory glut that craters mid-market retail

2022-02-05 → 2023-02-05 · 12mo

+11%

R +5% PARTIAL

📈 IPO 2.0: the Chamath SPAC complex

2020-09-09 → 2021-09-09 · 12mo

+11%

R +45% HIT

🤖 Gen Z's creator-career shift is real and monetizable

2024-10-25 → 2025-10-25 · 12mo

+11%

R +29% HIT

📈 Hollywood's strikes are a fight over a shrinking pie

2023-07-27 → 2024-07-27 · 12mo

+10%

R +32% HIT

📈 Private capital concentrates in a few mega-GPs that take themselves public

2022-01-08 → 2024-01-08 · 24mo

+10%

R +16% HIT

🤖 We run out of compute again in 2025

2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 · 12mo

+10%

R +26% HIT

🏛️ TikTok gets banned or force-divested and US platforms take the attention

2024-03-08 → 2025-03-08 · 12mo

+10%

R +24% HIT

🤖 Bottom-up SaaS is the dominant mode of business software

2021-02-20 → 2022-02-20 · 12mo

+10%

R +24% HIT

🤖 AI collapses the cost of knowledge work to ten cents on the dollar

2023-04-28 → 2024-04-28 · 12mo

+9%

R +33% HIT

🏛️ The Walz pick is a net negative for Harris — stolen valor is the live risk

2024-08-09 → 2024-11-09 · 3mo

+9%

R +22% HIT

🤖 The streaming churn war's only winners are Google and Meta

2024-01-19 → 2025-01-19 · 12mo

+9%

R +34% HIT

⚡ AI datacenter demand needs double-to-triple current US electricity generation

2024-06-20 → 2025-06-20 · 12mo

+9%

R +19% HIT

🏛️ California wealth tax fails to pass — but the proposal alone drives the exodus

2021-04-01 → 2023-01-01 · 21mo

+9%

R +7% PARTIAL

🏛️ Infrastructure trillions get captured by the contractors

2021-04-01 → 2023-04-01 · 24mo

+9%

R +14% HIT

📈 Regulatory certification makes sole-source aerospace suppliers pricing-power machines

2024-01-19 → 2025-01-19 · 12mo

+8%

R +34% HIT

⚡ Nuclear is the fastest path to carbon neutral — uranium is being cornered

2021-06-13 → 2022-06-13 · 12mo

+8%

R -2% PARTIAL

🏛️ A Google breakup unlocks value - sum of the parts beats the whole

2024-08-16 → 2025-08-16 · 12mo

+8%

R +26% HIT

🌍 Holding the sanctions line pushes the pain onto emerging markets

2022-03-05 → 2023-03-05 · 12mo

+8%

R +6% PARTIAL

📈 SPAC complex busts as the zero-rate synthetic-bond bid dies

2021-03-06 → 2021-06-06 · 3mo

+7%

R +18% HIT

📈 Gemini blunder forces a Meta-style purge — GOOGL at 17x is the buy point

2024-03-01 → 2025-03-01 · 12mo

+7%

R +25% HIT

📈 Rate cuts plus the AI wave start a new venture cycle - a golden era, not a bubble

2024-09-20 → 2025-09-20 · 12mo

+7%

R +25% HIT

🛢️ Battery metals squeeze — lithium, nickel, cobalt push EV prices up 20-30%

2021-03-13 → 2022-03-13 · 12mo

+7%

R +14% HIT

📈 Archegos unwind stuffs the prime brokers with billions of losses

2021-04-01 → 2022-04-01 · 12mo

+6%

R +21% HIT

📈 ProKidney's autologous cell therapy for chronic kidney disease

2022-07-14 → 2023-07-14 · 12mo

+6%

R +27% HIT

🤖 Apple makes huge AI gains in 2024 (contrarian)

2024-01-06 → 2025-01-06 · 12mo

+6%

R +33% HIT

▼ SHORT
USDT-USD

🪙 Tether is a fraud and the peg breaks

2021-08-06 → 2022-08-06 · 12mo

+5%

R +0% PARTIAL

🏛️ Carried interest loophole gets closed in the Trump tax bill

2025-02-07 → 2026-02-07 · 12mo

+5%

R +21% HIT

📈 GLP-1s expand beyond weight loss into a broad chronic-disease class

2025-02-07 → 2026-02-07 · 12mo

+5%

R +21% HIT

📈 Inflation scare peaks — rebirth of growth by the fall

2021-05-22 → 2021-10-22 · 5mo

+4%

R +13% PARTIAL

🤖 YouTube is the largest proprietary training corpus on earth - Google's insurmountable AI moat

2024-02-09 → 2025-02-09 · 12mo

+3%

R +25% PARTIAL

📈 AI eats middle management before the entry level

2025-01-18 → 2026-01-18 · 12mo

+3%

R +19% PARTIAL

▼ SHORT
GOOGL

🏛️ The four big-tech monopolies get broken up by the end of the decade

2021-05-01 → 2022-05-01 · 12mo

+3%

R +3% PARTIAL

🛢️ War plus fertilizer costs cause a global crop shortfall and famine in a year

2022-04-01 → 2023-04-01 · 12mo

+3%

R -6% PARTIAL

🏛️ Medicare price negotiation compresses pharma pricing power and biotech returns

2022-08-20 → 2023-08-20 · 12mo

+2%

R +10% PARTIAL

▲ LONG
DAI-USD

🪙 Decentralized collateral-backed stablecoins have proven peg-resilient

2022-04-23 → 2023-04-23 · 12mo

+2%

R +0% PARTIAL

▲ LONG
cg:bitcoin

🪙 Post-halving cycle plus ETF flows reprice Bitcoin against gold

2024-05-31 → 2025-11-30 · 18mo

+2%

R +34% PARTIAL

🤖 Next year's foundation model commoditizes this year's AI app-layer startups

2024-09-20 → 2025-09-20 · 12mo

+2%

R +20% PARTIAL

🌍 Resilience beats efficiency - supply chains get de-centralized and reshored

2021-03-27 → 2022-03-27 · 12mo

+1%

R +17% PARTIAL

📈 Long public software, short late-stage private SaaS

2024-01-06 → 2025-01-06 · 12mo

+1%

R +28% PARTIAL

📈 Founder-CEO public companies outperform any index

2024-05-31 → 2025-05-31 · 12mo

+1%

R +14% PARTIAL

📈 SoftBank survives the Vision Fund blowup - Masa gets to swing again

2022-08-13 → 2023-08-13 · 12mo

+1%

R +6% PARTIAL

🏛️ Antitrust breaks Apple's App Store gatekeeping and 30% take rate

2021-06-25 → 2022-06-25 · 12mo

+0%

R -7% PARTIAL

🌍 Rapid reopening: weeks, not months

2020-03-19 → 2020-06-19 · 3mo

+0%

R +30% HIT

🌍 Fed at zero for half a decade — get paid to be long equities

2020-09-09 → 2021-09-09 · 12mo

+0%

R +34% HIT

🏛️ Biden's 39.6% capital gains hike does not become law

2021-04-23 → 2022-04-23 · 12mo

+0%

R +4% PARTIAL

🏛️ Ukraine ceasefire is weeks away — markets rally on the deal

2022-03-19 → 2022-06-19 · 3mo

+0%

R -17% MISS

🏛️ Ukraine endgame is an organized negotiated detente, not a Ukrainian win

2022-06-24 → 2023-06-24 · 12mo

+0%

R +13% HIT

🌍 Markets are bottoming now - the Fed breaks something and the Fed put returns

2022-10-01 → 2023-10-01 · 12mo

+0%

R +18% HIT

🏛️ Ukraine risk is already ring-fenced - even a nuclear incident barely moves markets

2022-10-01 → 2023-10-01 · 12mo

+0%

R +18% HIT

🏛️ Debt-ceiling standoff resolves — they raise it and keep spending

2023-01-20 → 2024-01-20 · 12mo

+0%

R +24% HIT

🏛️ Regulators backstop all uninsured deposits within days

2023-03-11 → 2023-04-11 · 1mo

+0%

R +7% PARTIAL

🌍 Risk-off overhang lifts - equities and high-beta growth rally

2023-11-03 → 2024-11-03 · 12mo

+0%

R +33% HIT

📈 Shrinking global equity float lifts prices regardless of fundamentals

2024-04-12 → 2025-04-12 · 12mo

+0%

R +6% PARTIAL

📈 Recession and an equity rally at the same time, because the Fed cuts

2024-08-09 → 2025-08-09 · 12mo

+0%

R +21% HIT

🌍 Tariff receipts plus cut savings re-rate the US and pull in global capital

2025-06-13 → 2025-12-13 · 6mo

+0%

R +15% HIT

🏛️ Student-debt executive order gets struck down as unconstitutional

2022-08-26 → 2023-08-26 · 12mo

-0%

R +10% PARTIAL

🤖 Privacy backlash pushes data off the centralized cloud

2022-08-26 → 2023-08-26 · 12mo

-1%

R +10% PARTIAL

🤖 Agents replace the browse-and-click layer and disintermediate consumer apps

2025-07-11 → 2026-07-11 · 12mo

-1%

R +21% PARTIAL

🏛️ Trump's tariff threats are negotiating leverage and get settled down

2025-02-15 → 2026-02-15 · 12mo

-1%

R +12% PARTIAL

📈 Amazon pivots to cash cow - the GARP re-rating

2022-10-14 → 2023-10-14 · 12mo

-1%

R +21% PARTIAL

🤖 AI value migrates from apps to the vertically integrated hardware/OS layer

2024-06-14 → 2026-06-14 · 24mo

-2%

R +38% PARTIAL

🌍 Conditioned fear keeps behaviour suppressed after vaccination

2021-02-20 → 2022-02-20 · 12mo

-2%

R +12% PARTIAL

📈 Google Cloud hits its margin inflection and tracks AWS's revenue curve

2024-07-26 → 2025-07-26 · 12mo

-2%

R +16% PARTIAL

📈 Logistics real estate becomes a core institutional asset class

2022-05-24 → 2023-05-24 · 12mo

-3%

R +4% MISS

🏛️ Local taxation cracks the big-tech monopolies

2021-05-22 → 2022-05-22 · 12mo

-3%

R -9% MISS

📈 San Francisco's governance flip turns the city around

2024-11-16 → 2025-11-16 · 12mo

-3%

R +13% PARTIAL

📈 Elon's brand backlash caps Tesla's EV share near 30-40%

2023-06-24 → 2024-06-24 · 12mo

-3%

R +24% PARTIAL

📈 The IPO window reopens - but only at a real discount to 2021 marks

2023-06-16 → 2024-06-16 · 12mo

-3%

R +21% PARTIAL

🛢️ Western water scarcity repriced water rights and infrastructure

2021-07-09 → 2022-07-09 · 12mo

-4%

R -13% MISS

🏛️ Infrastructure-bill tax credits make the captured solar incumbents rip

2021-09-14 → 2022-09-14 · 12mo

-4%

R -14% MISS

⚡ US natural gas industry wins 2023 — Europe is now a captive LNG customer

2023-01-06 → 2024-01-06 · 12mo

-4%

R +18% PARTIAL

🏛️ Crypto owners become a swing bloc and force a pro-crypto framework

2024-05-31 → 2025-05-31 · 12mo

-4%

R +9% PARTIAL

⚡ Solar wins alternative energy — nuclear and wind lose

2021-06-13 → 2022-06-13 · 12mo

-4%

R -15% MISS

🏛️ Biological Patriot Act: vaccine passports and private mandates arrive and get upheld

2021-03-06 → 2022-03-06 · 12mo

-4%

R +11% PARTIAL

🏦 Treasury routes around a recalcitrant Fed via community-bank deregulation

2025-03-22 → 2026-03-22 · 12mo

-4%

R +10% PARTIAL

🏛️ A second Trump term reflates growth via deregulation and lower corporate tax

2024-06-20 → 2025-06-20 · 12mo

-4%

R +6% PARTIAL

📈 Telcos go back to being dumb pipes — and that's a bad business

2021-05-31 → 2022-05-31 · 12mo

-5%

R -5% MISS

📈 Boeing is rotting because a duopoly has no accountability

2024-01-19 → 2025-01-19 · 12mo

-5%

R +20% PARTIAL

📈 Deconglomeration wave - activists break up conglomerates and unlock value

2021-11-13 → 2022-11-13 · 12mo

-5%

R -19% MISS

🏛️ Section 174 R&D amortization crushes small R&D-heavy companies

2024-04-19 → 2025-04-19 · 12mo

-5%

R +2% MISS

📈 This drawdown is the best vintage in a decade to build and deploy

2022-10-14 → 2023-10-14 · 12mo

-6%

R +16% PARTIAL

🏛️ The IRA kills the carbon tax — carbon markets and DAC are dead ends

2022-08-20 → 2023-08-20 · 12mo

-6%

R +1% MISS

⚡ Energy crisis reverses green policy - nuclear and natural gas get rehabilitated

2022-07-08 → 2023-07-08 · 12mo

-6%

R +8% PARTIAL

🌍 Risk-off window: November to February

2025-11-07 → 2026-02-07 · 3mo

-6%

R -3% MISS

📈 Code-for-hire outsourcers displace white-collar labor first

2023-03-31 → 2024-03-31 · 12mo

-6%

R +23% PARTIAL

🏛️ Ukraine reconstruction is the next contractor and infra-fund windfall

2023-01-27 → 2024-01-27 · 12mo

-6%

R +15% PARTIAL

🏛️ CHIPS Act capex subsidy is corporate welfare that doesn't fix Intel

2022-07-22 → 2023-07-22 · 12mo

-7%

R +10% PARTIAL

📈 Deregulation re-rates the regulated old economy, not tech

2024-11-16 → 2025-11-16 · 12mo

-7%

R +9% PARTIAL

🌍 China's growth engine breaks - property bust plus bank runs

2022-07-22 → 2023-07-22 · 12mo

-7%

R +9% PARTIAL

📈 Mamdani's New York drives capital flight and a property crash

2025-06-28 → 2026-06-28 · 12mo

-7%

R +12% PARTIAL

🛢️ Under-surveyed resource geographies reprice as supply chains route around China

2023-01-20 → 2024-01-20 · 12mo

-7%

R +16% PARTIAL

🏛️ AI regulation pushes model development offshore - bet on India

2023-11-03 → 2024-11-03 · 12mo

-9%

R +24% PARTIAL

📈 Post-vaccine travel demand blows the roof off

2021-04-17 → 2022-04-17 · 12mo

-9%

R -2% MISS

📈 Builders green-light supply once the inflation boogeyman dies

2021-06-13 → 2022-06-13 · 12mo

-9%

R -20% MISS

🤖 2025 is the year of robots and autonomous hardware

2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 · 12mo

-10%

R +7% PARTIAL

📈 Amazon buys One Medical cheap and levers it into a Prime healthcare stack

2022-07-22 → 2023-07-22 · 12mo

-10%

R +6% PARTIAL

🤖 Growth multiples have another 10-20% to give back as the 10-year normalizes

2021-04-17 → 2021-07-17 · 3mo

-10%

R -6% MISS

🛢️ Battery metals are the best-performing asset of 2022

2021-12-29 → 2022-12-29 · 12mo

-11%

R -29% MISS

📈 Tech drawdown is in the eighth inning - the bottom is close

2022-01-22 → 2023-01-22 · 12mo

-11%

R -19% MISS

🏦 Inflation hasn't peaked and the terminal rate is above what's priced

2022-07-14 → 2023-07-14 · 12mo

-11%

R +10% PARTIAL

📈 Pro sports franchise valuations have not peaked

2024-10-03 → 2025-10-03 · 12mo

-11%

R +8% PARTIAL

🏛️ A Democrat trifecta prices in the unrealized-gains wealth tax

2024-04-26 → 2025-04-26 · 12mo

-11%

R -1% MISS

🌍 Rate hikes bite with a lag - back in recession next year

2022-08-13 → 2023-08-13 · 12mo

-11%

R -6% MISS

🏛️ OpenAI's nonprofit-to-for-profit conversion becomes a tax and litigation overhang

2024-03-08 → 2025-03-08 · 12mo

-12%

R +2% MISS

🏦 Own the debt, not the equity, of the tech survivors

2022-06-30 → 2023-06-30 · 12mo

-12%

R +8% PARTIAL

🌍 Sanctions blow a hidden hole in leveraged counterparty books

2022-03-05 → 2022-06-05 · 3mo

-12%

R -13% MISS

📈 Traditional auto OEMs collapse into mega-mergers

2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 · 12mo

-12%

R +4% MISS

📈 Residential real estate faces continued headwinds in 2025

2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 · 12mo

-12%

R +4% MISS

🏦 A politicized Fed withholds the rate cuts the data justifies

2025-06-13 → 2025-12-13 · 6mo

-12%

R +2% MISS

📈 Pediatric ADHD/antidepressant over-prescription becomes an opioid-style reckoning

2022-09-10 → 2023-09-10 · 12mo

-13%

R -3% MISS

📈 Meta's fact-checking retreat is a value-maximizing political realignment

2025-01-11 → 2026-01-11 · 12mo

-13%

R +8% PARTIAL

📈 S&P 493 catches up to the Magnificent 7 in 2024

2024-01-06 → 2025-01-06 · 12mo

-13%

R +14% PARTIAL

🏛️ Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac get taken out of conservatorship

2025-03-15 → 2026-03-15 · 12mo

-13%

R +5% MISS

▲ LONG
cg:bitcoin

🪙 Crypto survives the May 2021 regulatory correction

2021-05-22 → 2022-05-22 · 12mo

-13%

R -19% MISS

📈 The Sphere becomes a replicable immersive-venue format

2023-10-07 → 2024-10-07 · 12mo

-14%

R +20% PARTIAL

🤖 The ad duopoly ratchets prices and makes its numbers through the startup bust

2022-03-26 → 2023-03-26 · 12mo

-14%

R -25% MISS

🏛️ RFK's MAHA agenda puts a policy overhang on processed food and soda

2024-08-30 → 2025-08-30 · 12mo

-14%

R +2% MISS

🏦 Inflation may not show up — breakevens are rolling over

2021-05-31 → 2022-05-31 · 12mo

-14%

R -14% MISS

🏛️ PBMs, not pharma, are the real drug-price target

2023-05-19 → 2024-05-19 · 12mo

-14%

R +14% PARTIAL

🌍 American exceptionalism soars and the economy booms in 2022

2021-12-29 → 2022-12-29 · 12mo

-15%

R -33% MISS

🌍 US labor boom: unemployment to 3-4% within two quarters

2021-03-06 → 2021-09-06 · 6mo

-15%

R +5% MISS

🏛️ Nobody's incentives point at de-escalation — the war economy ratchets up

2023-02-11 → 2024-02-11 · 12mo

-15%

R +8% PARTIAL

🤖 Training-data owners (NYT, Reddit, X, YouTube) win 2024

2024-01-06 → 2025-01-06 · 12mo

-15%

R +12% PARTIAL

🤖 General-purpose robotics finally works this cycle

2024-03-22 → 2025-03-22 · 12mo

-15%

R -5% MISS

🌍 China tips into outright deflation and drags global demand

2023-08-11 → 2024-08-11 · 12mo

-15%

R +6% PARTIAL

🏛️ $10K student-loan forgiveness lands as a half-trillion consumer stimulus

2022-04-30 → 2023-04-30 · 12mo

-15%

R -13% MISS

🤖 A decade of zero rates under-trained a generation of operators

2022-10-22 → 2023-10-22 · 12mo

-15%

R -3% MISS

🏛️ Patriot Act 2.0 - the foreign-adversary app law becomes a divestiture weapon against domestic platforms

2024-03-15 → 2025-03-15 · 12mo

-15%

R -4% MISS

📈 Starbucks is a sugar company - GLP-1s and sugar awareness are the real problem

2024-08-16 → 2025-08-16 · 12mo

-16%

R +2% MISS

🌍 Factory exodus from China to Vietnam and India as Chinese wages hit $6/hr

2022-07-22 → 2023-07-22 · 12mo

-17%

R -0% MISS

🏛️ Defamation litigation wave hits media balance sheets

2023-04-21 → 2024-04-21 · 12mo

-17%

R +5% PARTIAL

📈 Amazon is exceptionally cheap against the consumer surplus Prime delivers

2021-04-17 → 2022-04-17 · 12mo

-17%

R -10% MISS

🤖 Musk turns Twitter around fast - MAU value doubles or triples

2022-10-29 → 2023-10-29 · 12mo

-17%

R -9% MISS

🤖 The software industrial complex cracks in 2025

2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 · 12mo

-17%

R -1% MISS

🛢️ Uranium (URA) is the best-performing asset of 2024

2024-01-06 → 2025-01-06 · 12mo

-17%

R +10% PARTIAL

🏦 Inflation stays sticky in 2023 — the wage chapter

2023-01-06 → 2024-01-06 · 12mo

-17%

R +5% PARTIAL

📈 Venture has to shrink to clear public-market alpha - fund sizes and GP count come down

2024-10-11 → 2025-10-11 · 12mo

-17%

R -3% MISS

🏦 Cash + front-end T-bills are the place to be in 2023

2023-01-06 → 2024-01-06 · 12mo

-17%

R +5% PARTIAL

📈 The churn treadmill breaks standalone streaming subscriptions

2024-01-19 → 2025-01-19 · 12mo

-17%

R +8% PARTIAL

🏛️ Australia's news code spreads and platforms end up paying publishers

2021-02-20 → 2022-02-20 · 12mo

-18%

R -4% MISS

🤖 SaaS pricing power expands as category winners entrench

2021-03-13 → 2022-03-13 · 12mo

-18%

R -11% MISS

⚡ China's nuclear build gives it a cheap-electricity manufacturing edge

2023-01-20 → 2025-01-20 · 24mo

-18%

R +37% PARTIAL

🏛️ US capital gets walled off from Chinese AI and advanced tech

2023-04-07 → 2024-04-07 · 12mo

-18%

R +10% PARTIAL

🏛️ Washington rescues commercial real estate with a structured lending program

2023-07-09 → 2024-07-09 · 12mo

-18%

R +10% PARTIAL

📈 SVB collapse is an extinction-level event that freezes startup funding

2023-03-11 → 2023-05-11 · 2mo

-18%

R -11% MISS

🤖 AlphaFold 3 turns drug discovery into software — Google/Isomorphic captures it

2024-05-10 → 2025-05-10 · 12mo

-19%

R -9% MISS

📈 Asset-light mega-cap software is the inflation hedge

2021-10-30 → 2022-10-30 · 12mo

-19%

R -33% MISS

📈 Return-to-office wins - remote work retreats outside an elite minority

2024-08-16 → 2025-08-16 · 12mo

-19%

R -1% MISS

🏛️ Split government ends the spending orgy and blocks the interventionist response

2022-11-05 → 2023-11-05 · 12mo

-19%

R -3% MISS

🤖 Apple's AR headset becomes the next compute platform

2023-05-19 → 2024-05-19 · 12mo

-19%

R +9% PARTIAL

📈 Amazon's ad business passes AWS within three years

2021-05-01 → 2024-05-01 · 36mo

-19%

R +6% PARTIAL

⚡ Energy among 2024's top performers on conflict escalation

2024-01-06 → 2025-01-06 · 12mo

-20%

R +7% PARTIAL

📈 Snap's zero-vote governance and stock-comp dilution keep destroying shareholder value

2024-02-09 → 2025-02-09 · 12mo

-20%

R +2% MISS

🌍 Trump's endgame: let equities crack to refinance $10T of debt

2025-03-08 → 2026-03-08 · 12mo

-20%

R +2% MISS

🌍 BOJ is trapped — Japan can never raise rates and the yen keeps depreciating

2024-08-09 → 2025-08-09 · 12mo

-20%

R +1% MISS

🌍 Stablecoin dollarization entrenches the dollar's reserve status

2025-02-21 → 2026-02-21 · 12mo

-20%

R -4% MISS

🌍 Delta variant is a non-event — no reopening reversal

2021-07-03 → 2022-01-03 · 6mo

-20%

R -9% MISS

📈 Higher education's value unwinds, starting with the MBA

2025-01-18 → 2026-01-18 · 12mo

-20%

R -4% MISS

📈 Premium-IP media rerates - Iger's Disney and Warner's library

2022-12-24 → 2023-12-24 · 12mo

-20%

R +6% PARTIAL

▼ SHORT
GOOGL

🏛️ Big-tech antitrust survives a Trump-Vance administration

2024-07-19 → 2025-07-19 · 12mo

-20%

R -5% MISS

📈 The CRE refinancing wall bites — buildings go back to the banks

2025-08-29 → 2026-08-29 · 12mo

-20%

R +0% MISS

🌍 A second-term tariff-plus-tax-cut policy mix stokes stagflation

2024-06-20 → 2025-06-20 · 12mo

-21%

R -10% MISS

📈 Life sciences stays funded through the bust - own the tools companies

2022-10-01 → 2023-10-01 · 12mo

-21%

R -3% MISS

📈 US housing is millions of units short and demand is off the charts

2024-02-09 → 2025-02-09 · 12mo

-21%

R -0% MISS

🤖 AI-designed open-source gene editors break the CRISPR patent toll

2024-05-03 → 2025-05-03 · 12mo

-22%

R -9% MISS

🤖 Generative video collapses content production cost

2024-02-16 → 2025-02-16 · 12mo

-22%

R +2% MISS

📈 Opaque payment fee pools get competed to zero

2021-02-13 → 2022-02-13 · 12mo

-23%

R -9% MISS

⚡ The 2024 black swan is a wider Middle East war and an oil shock

2023-12-23 → 2024-12-23 · 12mo

-23%

R +4% MISS

⚡ Energy is overheated after 2022 and underperforms in 2023

2023-01-06 → 2024-01-06 · 12mo

-23%

R -0% MISS

📈 Infrastructure-spend compounders are the best asset of 2023

2023-01-06 → 2024-01-06 · 12mo

-23%

R -0% MISS

🛢️ Commodities boom returns in 2024

2024-01-06 → 2025-01-06 · 12mo

-23%

R +4% MISS

🤖 OpenAI keeps the consumer AI lead through a developer network effect

2024-02-09 → 2025-02-09 · 12mo

-23%

R -2% MISS

🏛️ Microsoft's bundle playbook gets an antitrust remedy

2024-06-29 → 2025-06-29 · 12mo

-24%

R -9% MISS

🤖 The space industrial age — Apollo's semiconductor payoff, round two

2021-06-13 → 2022-06-13 · 12mo

-24%

R -35% MISS

🏛️ CLARITY Act market-structure bill clears the Senate and is signed by October

2025-07-19 → 2025-10-19 · 3mo

-25%

R -19% MISS

🤖 Big Tech eats Hollywood — the studios' end state

2021-05-31 → 2022-05-31 · 12mo

-25%

R -25% MISS

📈 Gamified betting apps take a rising share of the consumer wallet

2024-04-19 → 2025-04-19 · 12mo

-25%

R -17% MISS

📈 Hidden hedge-fund leverage forces another wave of equity selling

2024-08-09 → 2024-11-09 · 3mo

-25%

R -13% MISS

📈 Trade the second-order cost of immersive tech, not Apple's revenue

2024-02-09 → 2025-02-09 · 12mo

-25%

R -4% MISS

📈 Mortgage rate lock-in freezes housing turnover

2023-05-19 → 2024-05-19 · 12mo

-25%

R +3% MISS

🏛️ Socialist policy turn across the industrialized democracies

2024-07-12 → 2025-07-12 · 12mo

-26%

R -13% MISS

📈 Microplastics evidence pushes beverages out of PET

2024-01-19 → 2025-01-19 · 12mo

-26%

R -1% MISS

📈 Zero-vote dual-class governance orphans Snap - and the super-voting era ends at 4% rates

2022-10-22 → 2023-10-22 · 12mo

-27%

R -14% MISS

🤖 Enterprises tune and self-host open-source models instead of paying for proprietary APIs

2024-06-14 → 2026-06-14 · 24mo

-27%

R +13% PARTIAL

🌍 2023 marks the beginning of the end of dollar reserve dominance

2023-01-06 → 2024-01-06 · 12mo

-27%

R -5% MISS

🤖 AlphaFold's open proteome kickstarts a drug-discovery wave

2021-07-23 → 2022-07-23 · 12mo

-27%

R -36% MISS

🏦 The "Big, Beautiful Bill" delivers no real deficit cut and the long end reprices

2025-05-17 → 2026-05-17 · 12mo

-27%

R -2% MISS

📈 Prop 22 IC+ model becomes the national gig-work architecture

2020-11-04 → 2021-11-04 · 12mo

-27%

R +10% PARTIAL

📈 Elon does not pay $54.20 — Twitter deal settles or re-trades lower

2022-08-26 → 2023-08-26 · 12mo

-28%

R -17% MISS

📈 The UAW deal is existential for the unionized US automakers

2023-09-22 → 2024-09-22 · 12mo

-28%

R +6% PARTIAL

📈 EV makers outrun the legacy automakers

2021-11-06 → 2022-11-06 · 12mo

-28%

R -46% MISS

🏦 2023 is the year debt markets unravel — EM sovereigns first

2023-01-06 → 2024-01-06 · 12mo

-28%

R -6% MISS

▲ LONG
cg:ethereum

🪙 Creators go direct on crypto rails

2021-05-31 → 2022-05-31 · 12mo

-28%

R -28% MISS

🪙 Stablecoins become the standard US payment rail and crush the card take rate

2024-12-20 → 2025-12-20 · 12mo

-29%

R -12% MISS

📈 DOGE lease terminations flood the office market and hit federal landlords

2025-01-31 → 2026-01-31 · 12mo

-29%

R -13% MISS

🤖 Stargate's $500B is marketing, not a real capex commitment

2025-01-25 → 2026-01-25 · 12mo

-29%

R -13% MISS

⚡ Brutal 2021 western fire season plus grid brownouts

2021-06-18 → 2021-12-18 · 6mo

-29%

R -18% MISS

🏛️ Record border encounters force a bipartisan enforcement buildout

2023-10-07 → 2024-10-07 · 12mo

-30%

R +4% MISS

📈 Airbnb re-rates from tech multiple to consumer cyclical

2024-09-06 → 2025-09-06 · 12mo

-30%

R -8% MISS

🤖 Deep physical science and R&D is the one long-duration bet still worth buying

2021-12-04 → 2022-12-04 · 12mo

-30%

R -40% MISS

🏦 Junk debt is 2023's most pressured asset class

2023-01-06 → 2024-01-06 · 12mo

-30%

R -8% MISS

🏛️ Atkins SEC loosens accredited-investor gating and retail money reaches private markets

2024-12-07 → 2025-12-07 · 12mo

-30%

R -15% MISS

🏦 Levered pension unwind spills into US credit

2022-10-14 → 2023-10-14 · 12mo

-30%

R -8% MISS

📈 Quality software grows through the de-rating — Snowflake

2022-03-26 → 2023-03-26 · 12mo

-30%

R -42% MISS

📈 Star athletes take the equity off the sports owners

2023-06-10 → 2024-06-10 · 12mo

-31%

R -6% MISS

🌍 Contrarian: a mainline bank reserve crisis in 2025 (long CDS)

2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 · 12mo

-31%

R -15% MISS

▼ SHORT
SFTBY

📈 Down-round IPOs wipe out the late-stage preference stack

2023-08-11 → 2024-08-11 · 12mo

-32%

R -10% MISS

🌍 US assets reprice with an emerging-market risk premium

2025-04-11 → 2026-04-11 · 12mo

-32%

R -3% MISS

📈 California's suppressed insurance rates break the market and land on the taxpayer

2025-01-11 → 2026-01-11 · 12mo

-32%

R -11% MISS

🌍 Europe eats the bill - energy crunch reopens the EU sovereign debt crisis

2022-06-24 → 2023-06-24 · 12mo

-32%

R -19% MISS

🌍 Payroll revisions expose an economy materially weaker than the headline data

2024-08-23 → 2025-08-23 · 12mo

-32%

R -16% MISS

📈 Mag-7 concentration unwinds — trillions in drawdown

2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 · 12mo

-33%

R -17% MISS

📈 Airbnb beats the airlines as a travel spread

2021-11-06 → 2022-11-06 · 12mo

-34%

R -52% MISS

🤖 Expensive labour pulls forward automation capex

2021-10-16 → 2022-10-16 · 12mo

-34%

R -53% MISS

🪙 Dollar stablecoins are 2025's biggest business winner

2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 · 12mo

-34%

R -18% MISS

🌍 Dem sweep of Georgia runoffs cracks the market 30-40%

2020-11-11 → 2021-05-11 · 6mo

-34%

R -17% MISS

🤖 Consumption-based software pricing destroys the business — Snowflake is the case study

2025-06-21 → 2026-06-21 · 12mo

-34%

R -9% MISS

📈 Office commercial real estate reckoning — SF towers go to the banks

2023-01-06 → 2024-01-06 · 12mo

-35%

R -12% MISS

⚡ IRA production credits flip climate-tech unit economics — capital floods in

2022-08-20 → 2023-08-20 · 12mo

-35%

R -27% MISS

🛢️ Boosted breeding delivers a step-change in crop yield

2024-05-17 → 2025-05-17 · 12mo

-35%

R -21% MISS

🤖 AI drug discovery hasn't lifted pharma hit rates — the M&A bid is falling

2023-01-20 → 2024-01-20 · 12mo

-35%

R -11% MISS

⚡ Federal loan-office money onshores the EV battery supply chain

2023-06-24 → 2024-06-24 · 12mo

-35%

R -8% MISS

📈 Model Y becomes the best-selling car in America

2023-05-26 → 2024-05-26 · 12mo

-35%

R -7% MISS

📈 Record 2024 Atlantic hurricane season drives catastrophe losses

2024-06-07 → 2024-12-07 · 6mo

-35%

R -21% MISS

📈 FTC merger-blocking chills early-stage biotech financing

2023-05-19 → 2024-05-19 · 12mo

-35%

R -7% MISS

📈 Private equity takes out the busted post-IPO cohort

2022-06-30 → 2023-06-30 · 12mo

-36%

R -16% MISS

📈 Telehealth keeps its COVID share gain while e-commerce mean-reverts

2022-07-29 → 2023-07-29 · 12mo

-36%

R -23% MISS

📈 Alzheimer's amyloid hypothesis was built on fraud - the anti-amyloid franchise busts

2022-07-29 → 2023-07-29 · 12mo

-36%

R -23% MISS

⚡ 100 million homes become mini-utilities and strand incumbent utility debt

2024-04-26 → 2025-04-26 · 12mo

-36%

R -26% MISS

🌍 The 50bp kickoff cut means the Fed sees real pressure - earnings and asset values contract

2024-09-20 → 2025-09-20 · 12mo

-36%

R -18% MISS

🏛️ China retaliates by openly abandoning IP protection

2025-04-05 → 2026-04-05 · 12mo

-37%

R -5% MISS

📈 Boosters become routine — recurring revenue for the mRNA vaccine makers

2021-07-16 → 2022-01-16 · 6mo

-37%

R -29% MISS

⚡ Distributed backup power boom — generators and rooftop solar

2021-07-09 → 2022-07-09 · 12mo

-38%

R -47% MISS

🏛️ East Palestine forces rail safety re-regulation and operator liability

2023-02-17 → 2024-02-17 · 12mo

-38%

R -13% MISS

📈 Top-tier IP collections still win — you can't displace Disney

2021-05-31 → 2022-05-31 · 12mo

-38%

R -38% MISS

📈 Robinhood keeps compounding — product velocity plus retail loyalty

2025-08-15 → 2026-08-15 · 12mo

-38%

R -16% MISS

🌍 German economy is 2024's biggest business loser

2024-01-06 → 2025-01-06 · 12mo

-39%

R -12% MISS

📈 Asset-light domestic services platforms are the tariff-immune trade

2025-05-02 → 2026-05-02 · 12mo

-39%

R -11% MISS

🏛️ Section 230 moderation mandates are regulatory capture that entrench the incumbents

2021-03-27 → 2022-03-27 · 12mo

-40%

R -24% MISS

🏦 Phase three of the 2023 crisis is a US government debt crisis

2023-03-24 → 2025-03-24 · 24mo

-40%

R +9% PARTIAL

🌍 UK mortgage resets flip the UK economy upside down

2022-10-01 → 2023-10-01 · 12mo

-40%

R -22% MISS

🤖 Tesla's fleet-data moat wins general autonomy; Cruise and Waymo stay geofenced

2023-10-07 → 2024-10-07 · 12mo

-40%

R -7% MISS

📈 Disney keeps politicizing its franchises and keeps flopping

2024-01-13 → 2025-01-13 · 12mo

-41%

R -17% MISS

📈 Ocean freight stays broken - capacity shrinks again and rates go higher

2022-02-05 → 2023-02-05 · 12mo

-42%

R -48% MISS

🛢️ US state-backed critical-minerals champions win

2025-08-29 → 2026-08-29 · 12mo

-42%

R -21% MISS

📈 The IPO cohort outperforms the S&P after listing

2021-07-03 → 2022-07-03 · 12mo

-42%

R -52% MISS

🤖 Software without real lock-in loses its pricing power to AI-built clones

2024-01-13 → 2025-01-13 · 12mo

-42%

R -18% MISS

📈 Point-of-care antigen testing scales — BD wins

2020-07-11 → 2021-07-11 · 12mo

-42%

R -2% MISS

📈 The equity beta trade is done — software back at fair value, alpha only from selection

2023-08-11 → 2024-08-11 · 12mo

-42%

R -21% MISS

🏛️ State AI-regulation patchwork advantages incumbents over startups

2025-07-04 → 2026-07-04 · 12mo

-42%

R -21% MISS

🏦 Fed's bank funding facility only kicks the can — massive rate cuts are the exit

2023-03-17 → 2024-03-17 · 12mo

-42%

R -10% MISS

📈 Ag retail is the chokepoint for farm productivity - Friedberg SPACs Lavoro

2022-09-17 → 2023-09-17 · 12mo

-43%

R -27% MISS

📈 FDA's loosened approval bar creates markets — capital floods the biotech complex

2021-06-13 → 2022-06-13 · 12mo

-43%

R -54% MISS

📈 Payment processors are middlemen with no pricing power

2023-08-18 → 2024-08-18 · 12mo

-43%

R -14% MISS

📈 FTX's cap table is a who's-who of no diligence

2022-11-19 → 2023-11-19 · 12mo

-43%

R -27% MISS

▼ SHORT
GOOGL

🤖 Apple launches its own search engine and goes head-to-head with Google

2024-08-16 → 2025-08-16 · 12mo

-43%

R -26% MISS

🤖 Space companies stay cheap until they have non-government revenue

2023-03-24 → 2024-03-24 · 12mo

-44%

R -10% MISS

🏛️ Dominion's $1.6B defamation claim against Fox fails the actual-malice test

2023-03-03 → 2024-03-03 · 12mo

-44%

R -15% MISS

🤖 Data-infra platforms buy the AI tool chain — more M&A at premium multiples

2023-07-01 → 2024-07-01 · 12mo

-44%

R -19% MISS

📈 The real economy is already squeezed while software keeps its pricing power

2024-08-09 → 2025-08-09 · 12mo

-44%

R -23% MISS

📈 Liquid biopsy is the one blood-diagnostic thesis that actually works

2021-09-18 → 2022-09-18 · 12mo

-45%

R -54% MISS

▼ SHORT
GOOGL

🏛️ Google's search-monopoly remedy is a broad consent decree, not a breakup

2024-08-09 → 2025-08-09 · 12mo

-45%

R -24% MISS

▼ SHORT
GOOGL

🤖 Gemini's ideological tuning breaks Google's AI product

2024-02-23 → 2025-02-23 · 12mo

-45%

R -25% MISS

📈 AI adoption disperses the S&P — short the index, own the category killers

2025-06-21 → 2026-06-21 · 12mo

-45%

R -19% MISS

▲ LONG
cg:bitcoin

🪙 Bitcoin bid as the escape hatch from dollar debasement

2021-02-20 → 2022-02-20 · 12mo

-45%

R -31% MISS

🤖 The gut microbiome becomes a real therapeutic platform

2022-08-26 → 2023-08-26 · 12mo

-45%

R -35% MISS

🏛️ Socialism goes national in the US and ratchets taxes and spending higher

2025-08-09 → 2026-08-09 · 12mo

-46%

R -23% MISS

📈 Zantac carcinogen cover-up becomes a pharma liability reckoning

2023-02-17 → 2024-02-17 · 12mo

-46%

R -22% MISS

🏦 Regional banks still sick — Fed must extend BTFP

2024-01-06 → 2025-01-06 · 12mo

-47%

R -20% MISS

🏛️ Wildfire value-at-risk pushes fire-hardened building code national

2025-01-18 → 2026-01-18 · 12mo

-48%

R -32% MISS

📈 Stock-based comp and Evergreen dilution get repriced

2022-06-30 → 2023-06-30 · 12mo

-48%

R -28% MISS

🌍 Germany slides into recession because it can no longer get cheap energy

2023-09-01 → 2024-09-01 · 12mo

-48%

R -21% MISS

📈 Arm's post-earnings rip is a float squeeze, not a repricing

2024-02-16 → 2025-02-16 · 12mo

-48%

R -24% MISS

📈 PBM margin model breaks on drug-price transparency

2024-10-03 → 2025-10-03 · 12mo

-48%

R -29% MISS

📈 Base-edited T-cells cure incurable blood cancer - gene editing inflects

2022-12-24 → 2023-12-24 · 12mo

-49%

R -23% MISS

🏛️ Affirmative-action ruling propagates into corporate DEI and ESG

2023-07-01 → 2024-07-01 · 12mo

-49%

R -24% MISS

📈 Wall Street earnings estimates are wrong - the E resets, not just the multiple

2022-06-24 → 2023-12-24 · 18mo

-49%

R -24% MISS

📈 You cannot build durable public equity value on a bet-making business

2024-08-02 → 2025-08-02 · 12mo

-49%

R -31% MISS

🏛️ Immunity plus Fisher rulings collapse the January 6 prosecution

2024-07-04 → 2025-07-04 · 12mo

-49%

R -35% MISS

▼ SHORT
GOOGL

🤖 Natural-language chat disrupts Google's search box

2022-12-03 → 2023-12-03 · 12mo

-49%

R -33% MISS

🏛️ The Mar-a-Lago raid makes Trump nearly unbeatable for the 2024 nomination

2022-08-13 → 2024-08-13 · 24mo

-49%

R -19% MISS

📈 Legacy defense primes (Boeing, Lockheed, RTX) lose 2025

2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 · 12mo

-49%

R -33% MISS

📈 SVB failure triggers deposit flight out of the regional banks

2023-03-11 → 2024-03-11 · 12mo

-50%

R -15% MISS

🤖 In-vivo CRISPR proof point starts programmable biology

2021-07-30 → 2022-07-30 · 12mo

-50%

R -54% MISS

📈 Uber-Expedia super-app cross-sell doesn't pencil

2024-10-18 → 2025-10-18 · 12mo

-50%

R -35% MISS

🏛️ Harris's federal food price-gouging ban is a discredited price control

2024-08-16 → 2025-08-16 · 12mo

-51%

R -34% MISS

🏦 Rates fall to ~2.5% within two years

2023-12-08 → 2025-12-08 · 24mo

-51%

R +1% MISS

🤖 3D printing has enormous upside as space manufacturing

2021-07-16 → 2022-07-16 · 12mo

-51%

R -61% MISS

🤖 Pervasive satellite internet covers the whole earth within five years

2021-07-16 → 2026-07-16 · 60mo

-52%

R +35% PARTIAL

📈 Crony managerialism: debt-funded buybacks and EPS-linked comp produce marginal companies

2024-02-02 → 2025-02-02 · 12mo

-52%

R -28% MISS

📈 Record Atlantic sea-surface temperatures drive the biggest hurricane season ever

2023-07-14 → 2024-07-14 · 12mo

-54%

R -28% MISS

📈 Coinbase's regulated-first franchise makes it a great business

2022-04-23 → 2023-04-23 · 12mo

-54%

R -56% MISS

🌍 The US consumer taps out in 2023 — recession unavoidable

2023-01-06 → 2024-01-06 · 12mo

-54%

R -32% MISS

▲ LONG
cg:ethereum

🪙 DAOs become a real capital-formation primitive

2021-11-20 → 2023-11-20 · 24mo

-54%

R -54% MISS

📈 Peak Apple: a GDP-levered cyclical with no product optionality left

2024-03-08 → 2025-03-08 · 12mo

-55%

R -41% MISS

▲ LONG
cg:ethereum

🪙 Spot ETF approvals extend past Bitcoin to Ethereum

2024-03-08 → 2025-03-08 · 12mo

-57%

R -43% MISS

🌍 Soft-landing rally underprices the lag risk

2023-08-18 → 2024-08-18 · 12mo

-58%

R -29% MISS

⚡ US nuclear newbuild stays blocked by regulation — none of the new reactors ship

2023-09-01 → 2024-09-01 · 12mo

-58%

R -31% MISS

📈 Private venture marks are stale by design — nobody is paid to fix them

2023-08-11 → 2024-08-11 · 12mo

-58%

R -37% MISS

🏛️ Litigation forces the app-store duopoly to open up and cut the 30% rake

2023-12-16 → 2024-12-16 · 12mo

-59%

R -29% MISS

▼ SHORT
GOOGL

🏛️ Section 230's algorithmic shield gets rolled back - platform liability overhang

2022-10-07 → 2023-10-07 · 12mo

-60%

R -39% MISS

🤖 Smartphone manufacturers slow as consumers skip generations

2024-01-06 → 2025-01-06 · 12mo

-60%

R -33% MISS

🏛️ Federal cannabis normalization - descheduling plus banking access unlocks the legal market

2022-10-07 → 2023-10-07 · 12mo

-60%

R -40% MISS

🏛️ Biden stays the nominee - there is no mechanism to remove him

2024-02-16 → 2024-11-16 · 9mo

-60%

R -42% MISS

🤖 In-silico materials discovery cracks cheap battery chemistry

2023-07-27 → 2024-07-27 · 12mo

-61%

R -39% MISS

▼ SHORT
SFTBY

📈 SoftBank is a forced seller — the Arm IPO is balance-sheet deleveraging

2023-08-25 → 2024-08-25 · 12mo

-61%

R -32% MISS

📈 Texas Stock Exchange breaks the NYSE/Nasdaq listing duopoly

2024-06-07 → 2025-06-07 · 12mo

-61%

R -48% MISS

▼ SHORT
GOOGL

🏛️ EU's Digital Services Act becomes a binding censorship and compliance regime on the platforms

2023-10-20 → 2024-10-20 · 12mo

-61%

R -21% MISS

🤖 Synthetic biology's Netscape moment

2021-05-13 → 2023-05-13 · 24mo

-63%

R -59% MISS

📈 EBV-causes-MS proof turns Epstein-Barr into a funded therapeutic target

2022-01-15 → 2023-01-15 · 12mo

-63%

R -74% MISS

📈 Fintech is fin, not tech — margins and multiples reckon

2024-01-26 → 2025-01-26 · 12mo

-63%

R -36% MISS

⚡ Energy-transition capital flows under a national-security frame, not a climate frame

2023-08-25 → 2024-08-25 · 12mo

-64%

R -34% MISS

▲ LONG
cg:solana

🪙 Solana is the layer-1 that challenges Ethereum

2021-10-09 → 2022-10-09 · 12mo

-64%

R -79% MISS

🤖 Electric bikes reshape cities

2021-07-16 → 2022-07-16 · 12mo

-65%

R -74% MISS

🏛️ Federal research funding retreats from universities

2025-04-19 → 2026-04-19 · 12mo

-65%

R -25% MISS

🏛️ MFN drug-pricing EO compresses pharma profits and pushes R&D offshore

2025-05-17 → 2026-05-17 · 12mo

-66%

R -40% MISS

🛢️ China retaliates by halting US ag imports, forcing farm transfer payments

2025-02-15 → 2026-02-15 · 12mo

-68%

R -56% MISS

🤖 SaaS gets replaced by MaaS — Models as a Service

2022-12-03 → 2023-12-03 · 12mo

-69%

R -52% MISS

📈 The exit drought is a valuation overhang, not antitrust or markets

2024-12-13 → 2025-12-13 · 12mo

-69%

R -55% MISS

📈 Legacy journalism is obsolete - the opinion economy takes the audience

2022-10-14 → 2023-10-14 · 12mo

-69%

R -47% MISS

📈 Robinhood compounds hard off its $30B IPO

2021-07-30 → 2022-07-30 · 12mo

-70%

R -74% MISS

🤖 AI agents disintermediate consumer app interfaces

2024-05-10 → 2025-05-10 · 12mo

-70%

R -60% MISS

🏛️ Deposit-insurance reform gets paid for out of bank equity

2023-03-24 → 2024-03-24 · 12mo

-70%

R -36% MISS

🏛️ Closing the unregistered-foreign-importer loophole hits Amazon's 3P marketplace

2025-05-02 → 2026-05-02 · 12mo

-70%

R -41% MISS

🏛️ Ukraine's position is unsustainable - the front collapses next year

2024-08-16 → 2025-12-16 · 16mo

-70%

R -46% MISS

🤖 Tech has another tough year in 2023

2023-01-06 → 2024-01-06 · 12mo

-71%

R -49% MISS

📈 Fox's neocon drift misaligns it with its own audience — bad for the business

2024-07-26 → 2025-07-26 · 12mo

-71%

R -53% MISS

🏛️ Crypto collapse triggers a regulatory crackdown that kills the opportunity

2022-06-30 → 2023-06-30 · 12mo

-72%

R -52% MISS

📈 Opendoor wins instant home offers - software compounds

2021-11-06 → 2022-11-06 · 12mo

-72%

R -91% MISS

📈 Virgin Galactic starts commercial flights within two to three quarters

2021-07-16 → 2022-04-16 · 9mo

-73%

R -70% MISS

▼ SHORT
GOOGL

🏛️ Structural breakup replaces merger-blocking as the big-tech remedy

2023-07-14 → 2024-07-14 · 12mo

-74%

R -48% MISS

📈 Take-rate decay caps the GTV marketplaces — model Instacart down, not up

2023-09-22 → 2024-09-22 · 12mo

-74%

R -40% MISS

📈 Apple has completed the transition from growth company to cash cow and loses the AI cycle

2025-06-21 → 2026-06-21 · 12mo

-74%

R -48% MISS

🏛️ Oct-7 derails Israel-Saudi normalization and reprices regional risk

2023-10-13 → 2024-10-13 · 12mo

-74%

R -38% MISS

📈 Multifamily breaks on the capital stack, not vacancy

2023-08-18 → 2025-08-18 · 24mo

-75%

R -24% MISS

🤖 DeepSeek proves frontier-model costs are collapsing

2025-01-25 → 2026-01-25 · 12mo

-75%

R -59% MISS

📈 FedEx's warning is competitive, not macro - Amazon is eating the parcel business

2022-09-17 → 2023-09-17 · 12mo

-75%

R -60% MISS

⚡ Household energy resilience — every home becomes its own virtual power plant

2022-09-23 → 2023-09-23 · 12mo

-76%

R -57% MISS

🌍 More market volatility, not less

2021-02-13 → 2022-02-13 · 12mo

-77%

R -63% MISS

▼ SHORT
GOOGL

🤖 Google Search is 2023's biggest business loser as AI answers erode it

2023-01-06 → 2024-01-06 · 12mo

-78%

R -55% MISS

📈 Venture's alpha does not clear liquid alternatives — LP money leaves the asset class

2023-09-22 → 2024-09-22 · 12mo

-80%

R -46% MISS

▼ SHORT
GOOGL

🤖 Google defends search by doubling TAC — margin traded for share

2023-02-11 → 2024-02-11 · 12mo

-81%

R -57% MISS

🌍 Conforming-loan expansion inflates home equity into a HELOC-fuelled bust

2021-12-11 → 2024-12-11 · 36mo

-82%

R -46% MISS

🏛️ The AI trust-and-safety layer is the next censorship war

2023-02-17 → 2024-02-17 · 12mo

-82%

R -58% MISS

🤖 A CUDA transpiler breaks Nvidia's software lock-in

2024-09-06 → 2025-09-06 · 12mo

-84%

R -62% MISS

📈 Trans-Pacific container volume collapse seizes up the physical logistics economy

2025-05-02 → 2026-05-02 · 12mo

-84%

R -55% MISS

▼ SHORT
GOOGL

🤖 Forced KYC on cloud compute buyers dents hyperscaler revenue

2025-04-26 → 2025-10-26 · 6mo

-86%

R -62% MISS

📈 Facebook short: ad boycott + political-ad ban

2020-07-11 → 2021-07-11 · 12mo

-87%

R -47% MISS

📈 GLP-1 winners are priced to perfection — take the other side of the spread trade

2023-10-20 → 2024-10-20 · 12mo

-99%

R -58% MISS

📈 CrowdStrike's outage does lasting damage to its franchise

2024-07-26 → 2025-07-26 · 12mo

-101%

R -83% MISS

🌍 Red Sea reopening contains the freight-driven inflation impulse

2025-03-29 → 2026-03-29 · 12mo

-108%

R -94% MISS

🏛️ Speculative-competition antitrust blocks chill tech M&A

2023-12-08 → 2024-12-08 · 12mo

-109%

R -75% MISS

🤖 SaaS seat contraction — net revenue retention goes below 100%

2022-12-03 → 2023-12-03 · 12mo

-111%

R -94% MISS

📈 Uninsurable coastal property gets repriced down

2023-10-27 → 2024-10-27 · 12mo

-112%

R -69% MISS

📈 Startup mass extinction event in late 2023 and 2024

2023-02-04 → 2025-02-04 · 24mo

-113%

R -62% MISS

🏛️ Federal agencies run a coordinated regulatory campaign against Elon's companies

2023-12-16 → 2024-12-16 · 12mo

-113%

R -84% MISS

🏛️ US antitrust is punitive politics, not competition policy - hot-button platforms carry the overhang

2022-09-17 → 2023-09-17 · 12mo

-119%

R -103% MISS

🤖 Demand mix shifts to inference and Nvidia has to choose margin or share

2024-08-30 → 2026-08-30 · 24mo

-122%

R -83% MISS

🤖 LK-99 is a diamagnet, not a room-temperature superconductor

2023-08-04 → 2024-08-04 · 12mo

-129%

R -108% MISS

📈 Venture debt's loss models break - deferred defaults land on the lenders

2023-02-04 → 2025-02-04 · 24mo

-129%

R -78% MISS

🌍 COVID crash goes deeper — no V-shaped recovery

2020-03-19 → 2021-03-19 · 12mo

-131%

R -66% MISS

🤖 Big tech's growth era ends - cash-cow multiples and cost discipline

2022-10-01 → 2023-10-01 · 12mo

-135%

R -117% MISS

📈 Cruise's robotaxi program collapses under GM

2023-10-27 → 2024-10-27 · 12mo

-136%

R -93% MISS

🏛️ Delaware voiding Elon's package chills performance comp and drives charter flight

2024-02-02 → 2025-02-02 · 12mo

-139%

R -115% MISS

🌍 Eurozone collapses, Japan finished, dollar is the only safety

2020-03-19 → 2021-03-19 · 12mo

-145%

R -79% MISS

🏛️ Nvidia's Asia revenue is diverted China demand

2025-04-19 → 2026-04-19 · 12mo

-148%

R -108% MISS

🤖 Social network effects are not moats - the platforms fragment

2022-10-22 → 2023-10-22 · 12mo

-151%

R -138% MISS

🤖 Starship gives Starlink a launch monopoly that squeezes legacy satcom

2023-04-21 → 2026-04-21 · 36mo

-152%

R -75% MISS

📈 Fintech feature consolidation: licensed platforms become consumer-finance superpowers

2021-08-06 → 2026-08-06 · 60mo

-157%

R -71% MISS

⚡ US SMR buildout stalls on NIMBY and unproven technology

2024-10-18 → 2025-10-18 · 12mo

-158%

R -143% MISS

📈 WeWork's Chapter 11 resets its leases at 60 cents - landlords eat it, the distressed buyer wins

2023-11-03 → 2024-11-03 · 12mo

-162%

R -129% MISS

📈 Generative video (Veo 3) collapses Hollywood inside a year

2025-06-21 → 2026-06-21 · 12mo

-171%

R -145% MISS

🤖 Nvidia's monopoly margins get competed away by custom and open silicon

2023-08-25 → 2024-08-25 · 12mo

-211%

R -181% MISS

🤖 Inference cost collapse deflates OpenAI, LLM startups and Nvidia's multiple

2024-01-06 → 2025-01-06 · 12mo

-213%

R -186% MISS

📈 Activists cannot move founder-controlled big tech above the line

2022-10-29 → 2023-10-29 · 12mo

-227%

R -219% MISS

🤖 AI capex outruns app-layer revenue - Nvidia's terminal-value problem

2024-02-23 → 2026-08-23 · 30mo

-228%

R -173% MISS

📈 Ad-supported legacy media is structurally dead

2024-01-26 → 2025-01-26 · 12mo

-266%

R -240% MISS

🪙 Crypto collapse triggers a multi-year enforcement and litigation wave

2022-06-24 → 2024-06-24 · 24mo

-282%

R -239% MISS

▼ SHORT
BTC-USD

🪙 Crypto fails its bank-run test — liquidity is all correlated

2023-03-11 → 2024-03-11 · 12mo

-284%

R -250% MISS

🪙 SEC suits drive the US crypto exchanges offshore

2023-06-10 → 2024-06-10 · 12mo

-419%

R -394% MISS

🏛️ Taiwan's US protection expires as fabs onshore — TSMC carries the risk

2023-06-24 → 2026-06-24 · 36mo

-436%

R -359% MISS

By category

category	n	avg alpha	W / P / L
🛢️ commodities	13	+2.7%	4/3/6
🌍 macro	54	-10.3%	20/6/28
⚡ energy	24	-11.9%	7/5/12
🤖 tech	92	-12.6%	32/10/50
🏛️ politics-market	107	-13.4%	35/21/51
📈 equities	193	-14.1%	60/29/104
🏦 rates	16	-20.9%	1/6/9
🪙 crypto	22	-35.4%	8/3/11