DKNG

DraftKings Inc.

stock all instruments
-0.7
net board stance what this means
23.76
-1.0% · close 2026-09-08
-1% / -14% / -49%
1m / 3m / 12m
-74%
vs SPY since 2024-12-07
12%
of 52w range · -48.7% off high
0/1
hit rate as primary · α -25
⚠ THE BOARD IS ARGUING WITH ITSELF — 1 live bullish idea (+6.2) against 1 bearish (-6.9). Net them before sizing; don't hold both expressions.

Where we stand — 2 live ideas

ideacallplayconvictioncontributesflageval in
📈 Retail speculation complex (Robinhood/prediction markets/gambling) wins 2026 CONTESTED ▲ LONG adjacent ×0.5 12.4 +6.2 122d
📈 Legacy sportsbooks are toast ▼ SHORT primary 6.9 -6.9 44d

Where the winds are blowing

NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES — rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the talk lead the tape or follow it?

Who's pushing which way

each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means

Jason
Jason w=0.97 equities
3 ideas (1 live) · last heard E257
+6
pushes up
Friedberg
Friedberg w=0.87 equities
2 ideas (1 live) · last heard E261
+2
pushes up
Sacks
Sacks w=0.89 equities
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E182
+2
pushes up
Chamath
Chamath w=0.84 equities
4 ideas (2 live) · last heard E261
+1
pushes up

What resolves next

kill dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored verdict on that date, whether we like it or not

2026-10-24 44d 📈 Legacy sportsbooks are toast 7
2027-01-10 122d 📈 Retail speculation complex (Robinhood/prediction markets/gambling) wins 2026 12

Track record on DKNG

As a PRIMARY play the besties are 0 hit / 0 partial / 1 miss over 1 closed window — credit 0.0, average α -25.0. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.

ideacallplayverdictRαclosed
📈 Gamified retail speculation overwhelms fundamental price-setting ▲ LONG adjacent HIT +116.0% +108.2 2025-03-29
📈 Gamified betting apps take a rising share of the consumer wallet ▲ LONG primary MISS -17.4% -25.0 2025-04-19

The tape — what was actually said

every capture on any idea holding DKNG, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode

Friedberg Friedberg oppose ×1 ▲ on 📈 Retail speculation complex (Robinhood/prediction markets/gambling) wins 2026 E261 · 2026-02-13 ▶ 22:16
over time, you could burn and churn through all of your customers, ... if they're constantly going to be making trades where they simply don't have an edge, and all the ... liquidity is coming from the accounts that do have an edge,
Chamath Chamath support ×1 ▲ on 📈 Retail speculation complex (Robinhood/prediction markets/gambling) wins 2026 E261 · 2026-02-13 ▶ 24:05
Billions and billions of dollars will be made in asymmetry. The prediction markets today, unless they are regulated out of existence or shut down, will look like the stock market
Jason Jason support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Retail speculation complex (Robinhood/prediction markets/gambling) wins 2026 E257 · 2026-01-10 ▶ 1:06:31
if we are in a rate cut environment and ... people have a little bit of cash laying around, my pick for best performing asset will be the Robinhood Polymarket
Chamath Chamath support ×3 ▼ on 📈 Legacy sportsbooks are toast E248 · 2025-10-24 ▶ 21:37
a billion or two billion at nine billion. Then the next weekend, they announced sports betting. And now they're raising money 30 days later, ... you can see by the way, the way that DraftKings and FanDuel stock have reacted to this. Those companies are toast. Toast.
Jason Jason support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Gamified retail speculation overwhelms fundamental price-setting E219 · 2025-03-15 ▶ 1:02:20
this is the I think the upside of crypto in some ways, also the upside of prize picks or gambling poker. It's the upside of Robinhood and Coinbase and all these things being available. This generation, generation bet, like they love to gamble these young kids.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Gamified retail speculation overwhelms fundamental price-setting E201 · 2024-10-25 ▶ 29:20
they're actively trading on the side something, crypto, options, whatever. They're on Robinhood, they're using Coinbase
Jason Jason support ×3 ▲ on 📈 Gamified retail speculation overwhelms fundamental price-setting E201 · 2024-10-25 ▶ 30:19
I call them gen bet because they just want to bet on themselves
Chamath Chamath support ×1 ▲ on 📈 Gamified betting apps take a rising share of the consumer wallet E193 · 2024-08-23 ▶ 41:28
I mean, I think these are really good businesses, but they are some combination of entertainment and gambling.
Jason Jason support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Gamified retail speculation overwhelms fundamental price-setting E182 · 2024-06-07 ▶ 58:08
the people who are betting on these things are not looking to get a 7% return or beat the average. I mean, they're looking to double their money in 48 hours.
Sacks Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Gamified retail speculation overwhelms fundamental price-setting E182 · 2024-06-07 ▶ 42:59
It's basically a game where the Redditors, they bid up the stock to levels that realistically it's not worth that much.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×3 ▲ on 📈 Gamified retail speculation overwhelms fundamental price-setting E182 · 2024-06-07 ▶ 39:55
I don't think that there's anything about the actual performance of the underlying business in the security that you are buying or selling when you are making a decision about whether or not to buy or sell this security.
Chamath Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 📈 Gamified retail speculation overwhelms fundamental price-setting E182 · 2024-06-07 ▶ 43:21
they can get synthetically short. So they'll add leverage to this using all kinds of esoteric derivatives that other banks on Wall Street will happily sell them. And then when those are disclosed, then the Redditors can just pump it even more, which causes massive margin calls.
Jason Jason support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Gamified betting apps take a rising share of the consumer wallet E175 · 2024-04-19 ▶ 1:19:52
The states are getting massive amounts of revenue, $11 billion generated last year, up 44.5%... The sportsbooks, obviously killing it. DraftKings got a $20 billion... It's making the games more engaging. And the media is loving this.
Chamath Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 📈 Gamified betting apps take a rising share of the consumer wallet E175 · 2024-04-19 ▶ 1:17:42
everything is being gamified ... So these forms of gambling and addiction are just going to skyrocket, I think, because you have these apps that are really incredibly well-engineered to get you super hooked.
Jason Jason support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Gamified retail speculation overwhelms fundamental price-setting E172 · 2024-03-29 ▶ 33:20
When you have a small float like this and a rabid group of people who are gambling, you will get your face ripped off.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Gamified retail speculation overwhelms fundamental price-setting E172 · 2024-03-29 ▶ 28:37
when you look at the products that service the retail market, they've also become increasingly gamified. Robinhood is probably the best example of having built an incredibly good business by making things more like a game. ... on top of the whole movement to sort of allow individuals to monetize their own name and likeness via the stock market, which we just talked about, the second movement is that a lot of these things are becoming less financialized and more gamified. And so you just have many more participants. ... you can have a GameStop moment in any of these things. You can have these zero-day options run the stock to the moon.