🌍 Everything is at all-time highs and the insiders are selling - de-risk

“we have the stock market at absolute all time highs, ripping. We have crypto at absolute all time highs, ripping. ... the two most important founders of our generation, the two smartest people who have really consistently won, Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos have collectively sold more than 11 billion dollars of their holdings this year alone. ... If the smartest people in the world are now selling their core holdings that they told you they would never sell, and you are not reconsidering your position on things, you're either much smarter than them, or you're being really, really reckless.”

“And we are in a very dangerous moment in time right now, where I think people are, whether it's meme stocks or crypto, or NFTs, suspending disbelief, in some cases, SPACs, because they're not all created equal. And certainly in private companies, we're seeing this, where people are giving people an amount of credit, which makes no logical sense, and is getting further and further disconnected in from reality.”

“There are other guys that are heavily on the other side waiting for this whole thing to go. Like Druckenmiller has been very vocal about this. And he's he's been the best macro trader in the last 30 years. So his position is what exactly that we're printing too much money and we're in a lot of trouble.”

“The thing I wrestle with is, and Chamath kind of alludes to this, is I think everything's kind of in a bubble right now because of monetary and fiscal policy. ... it could be the case that if there's a crypto bust over the next year, and this thing, crypto has gone through boom and bust cycles for many, many years, that is the standard.”

“in early December or November, when I wrote that letter on Twitter and we talked about it, and I sold a bunch of stuff after Jeff and Elon were selling, raised some cash and I was like, okay, now I have enough buffer here. The whole point from here on out is to basically like insulate myself from my own emotional turmoil as stocks go down. And so far so good.”

“And so, you know, in November of last year, I was trying to figure out what I could do to shield myself. And the reason I wanted to shield myself was because I saw Elon and Jeff in part selling”

“And so all of these things have happened, yet the market is basically at an all-time high, plus or minus 5%. That really doesn't hang together at some really basic logical level, right?”

“I don't understand why anybody would give up their liquidity in this moment right now. Why would you? Why would I give up $100 million of cash in my bank account? I would not do that right now.”

“I started a process at that point, and I sold a piece in December, and then I just sold the last piece this week. But then, you know, I sold a big piece of SoFi in that moment.”

“And quite honestly, you know, in the process in November, when I started selling, I would have sold even more violently than I sold. And all I can say is I saved my ass in November of last year, looking at what's happened in the last six, eight months.”

“And look, I've been pretty clear about this since November. The marginal trade should have been to be trimming risk.”