📈 Infrastructure-spend compounders are the best asset of 2023
Security-driven reshoring in semis, energy and pharma means multi-year capex flows to semicap equipment (KLA/Lam/AMAT), oil services (SLB/Baker Hughes), Deere/CAT, and pharma infrastructure (Thermo Fisher/Danaher/Honeywell) — cash-flowing compounders with high-teens ROIC beat 5% T-bills.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 42.8 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▲ LONG TMO
expression · bullish equities
MISS
outcome · R -0.4% · α -22.8%
2024-01-06
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2023-01-06 → 2024-01-06 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG TMO (primary play). TMO fell 0.4% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -0.4% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +22.4% → α = -0.4 − (+22.4) = -22.8% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Brad Gerstner, Friedberg | proxy-sensitive: AMAT→HIT (+44.2%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2023-01-06)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | TMO | stock | PRIMARY | the name he himself called the good example spanning multiple themes (least cherry-picked primary for a 4-leg basket) |
| ▲ LONG | AMAT | stock | adjacent | semicap leg |
| ▲ LONG | SLB | stock | adjacent | oil-services leg |
Mention log
Friedberg
equities w=0.87 · n=120
· E110 (2023-01-06) · annual_prediction · strength 2
▶ 1:05:00
SUPPORT
· horizon 12mo
“I'll say what's an important trend I've seen across these companies, Danaher, Honeywell, Thermo Fisher, they buy small companies, they pay very little, and they immediately get massive return on invested capital, like they're in the high teens. So why get 5% on T-bills when you can get high teens, ROIC, on the management teams running these incredible platforms? So that's where I'm most excited for this year.”
Brad Gerstner
(regular guest ×1.0)
equities w=0.95 · n=22
· E118 (2023-03-03) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 1:30:03
SUPPORT
“I would argue that it's not just the Chips Act. It's also IRA, which is another trillion dollars of funding for basically onshore and supply chains.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -40.5 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E110 2023-01-06 | init | +34.7 | 34.7 | E110 born by Friedberg (annual_prediction x2) [w=0.87] |
| E111 2023-01-13 | decay | -1.4 | 33.3 | E111 silent |
| E112 2023-01-20 | decay | -1.3 | 31.9 | E112 silent |
| E113 2023-01-27 | decay | -1.3 | 30.7 | E113 silent |
| E114 2023-02-04 | decay | -1.2 | 29.4 | E114 silent |
| E115 2023-02-11 | decay | -1.2 | 28.3 | E115 silent |
| E116 2023-02-17 | decay | -1.1 | 27.1 | E116 silent |
| E118 2023-03-03 | reinforce | +15.6 | 42.8 | E118 Brad Gerstner support x2 (new voice) [w=0.95] |
| E119 2023-03-11 | decay | -1.7 | 41.1 | E119 silent |
| E120 2023-03-17 | decay | -1.6 | 39.4 | E120 silent |
| E121 2023-03-24 | decay | -1.6 | 37.9 | E121 silent |
| E122 2023-03-31 | decay | -1.5 | 36.3 | E122 silent |
| E123 2023-04-07 | decay | -1.5 | 34.9 | E123 silent |
| E124 2023-04-14 | decay | -1.4 | 33.5 | E124 silent |
| E125 2023-04-21 | decay | -1.3 | 32.2 | E125 silent |
| E126 2023-04-28 | decay | -1.3 | 30.9 | E126 silent |
| E128 2023-05-12 | decay | -1.2 | 29.6 | E128 silent |
| E129 2023-05-19 | decay | -1.2 | 28.4 | E129 silent |
| E130 2023-05-26 | decay | -1.1 | 27.3 | E130 silent |
| E131 2023-06-02 | decay | -1.1 | 26.2 | E131 silent |
| E132 2023-06-10 | decay | -1.0 | 25.2 | E132 silent |
| E133 2023-06-16 | decay | -1.0 | 24.2 | E133 silent |
| E134 2023-06-24 | decay | -1.0 | 23.2 | E134 silent |
| E135 2023-07-01 | decay | -0.9 | 22.3 | E135 silent |
| E136 2023-07-09 | decay | -0.9 | 21.4 | E136 silent |
| E137 2023-07-14 | decay | -0.9 | 20.5 | E137 silent |
| E139 2023-07-27 | decay | -0.8 | 19.7 | E139 silent |
| E140 2023-08-04 | decay | -0.8 | 18.9 | E140 silent |
| E141 2023-08-11 | decay | -0.8 | 18.2 | E141 silent |
| E142 2023-08-18 | decay | -0.7 | 17.4 | E142 silent |
| E143 2023-08-25 | decay | -0.7 | 16.7 | E143 silent |
| E144 2023-09-01 | decay | -0.7 | 16.1 | E144 silent |
| E146 2023-09-22 | decay | -0.6 | 15.4 | E146 silent |
| E147 2023-09-29 | decay | -0.6 | 14.8 | E147 silent |
| E148 2023-10-07 | decay | -0.6 | 14.2 | E148 silent |
| E149 2023-10-13 | decay | -0.6 | 13.6 | E149 silent |
| E150 2023-10-20 | decay | -0.5 | 13.1 | E150 silent |
| E151 2023-10-27 | decay | -0.5 | 12.6 | E151 silent |
| E152 2023-11-03 | decay | -0.5 | 12.1 | E152 silent |
| E156 2023-12-08 | decay | -0.5 | 11.6 | E156 silent |
| E157 2023-12-16 | decay | -0.5 | 11.1 | E157 silent |
| E158 2023-12-23 | decay | -0.4 | 10.7 | E158 silent |
| E159 2023-12-29 | decay | -0.4 | 10.3 | E159 silent |
| E160 2024-01-06 | decay | -0.4 | 9.8 | E160 silent |