🛢️ Global nitrogen-fertilizer supply shock
The Strait of Hormuz closure plus damage to Qatar's flagship urea facility (3-5 year rebuild; new plants take ~7 years) and China halting exports choke ~35% of world nitrogen-fertilizer flow — urea doubled from $350 to $700+/ton and stays structurally elevated, benefiting domestic natgas-fed producers while stressing global food supply.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 41.4 EMBER
EMBER
band
▲ LONG CF
expression · bullish commodities
—
moved yet?
days to scoring · born 2026-04-03 (E267) → 2027-04-03
IS THIS A TRADE?
🚫 Not a trade: conviction 16.2, ember.
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2026-04-03)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | CF | stock | PRIMARY | largest US nitrogen/urea producer with cheap domestic natgas input — direct beneficiary of doubled urea prices |
| ▲ LONG | MOS | stock | adjacent | Mosaic — broad fertilizer complex pricing lift |
| ▲ LONG | NTR | stock | adjacent | Nutrien — nitrogen + potash exposure |
Mention log newest first
Friedberg
commodities 38% · n=8
· E273 (2026-05-15) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 1:03:01
SUPPORT
· horizon 12mo
“absolutely 99 percent confidence that will make the upcoming year the hottest year on record ... currently facing a shortage of nitrogen based fertilizer because of the crisis with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, ... the commodity markets are going wild for this right now. ... It's become kind of a focal area for a lot of folks in commodity markets.”
Friedberg
commodities 38% · n=8
· E267 (2026-04-03) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 42:23
SUPPORT
· horizon 12mo
“about 35% of the world's nitrogen fertilizer goes through the Strait of Hormuz. ... urea was trading at about 350 bucks a ton before the conflict ... It reached over $700 a ton in the last two days. ... now going to be incapacitated for three to five years. And if you want to build a new facility, it takes about seven years.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -31.7 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E267 2026-04-03 | init | +35.0 | 35.0 | E267 born by Friedberg (explicit_prediction x2) |
| E268 2026-04-10 | decay | -1.4 | 33.6 | E268 silent |
| E269 2026-04-17 | decay | -1.3 | 32.3 | E269 silent |
| E270 2026-04-24 | decay | -1.3 | 31.0 | E270 silent |
| E271 2026-05-01 | decay | -1.2 | 29.7 | E271 silent |
| E272 2026-05-08 | decay | -1.2 | 28.5 | E272 silent |
| E273 2026-05-15 | reinforce | +12.9 | 41.4 | E273 Friedberg support x3 |
| E274 2026-05-22 | decay | -1.7 | 39.7 | E274 silent |
| E275 2026-05-29 | decay | -1.6 | 38.2 | E275 silent |
| E276 2026-06-13 | decay | -1.5 | 36.6 | E276 silent |
| E277 2026-06-19 | decay | -1.5 | 35.2 | E277 silent |
| E278 2026-06-26 | decay | -1.4 | 33.8 | E278 silent |
| E279 2026-07-03 | decay | -1.4 | 32.4 | E279 silent |
| E280 2026-07-11 | decay | -1.3 | 31.1 | E280 silent |
| E281 2026-07-18 | decay | -1.2 | 29.9 | E281 silent |
| E282 2026-07-24 | decay | -1.2 | 28.7 | E282 silent |
| E283 2026-07-31 | decay | -1.1 | 27.5 | E283 silent |
| E284 2026-08-08 | decay | -1.1 | 26.4 | E284 silent |
| E285 2026-08-14 | decay | -1.1 | 25.4 | E285 silent |
| E286 2026-08-21 | decay | -1.0 | 24.4 | E286 silent |
| E287 2026-08-29 | decay | -1.0 | 23.4 | E287 silent |
| E288 2026-09-04 | decay | -0.9 | 22.4 | E288 silent |
| E289 2026-09-11 | decay | -0.9 | 21.5 | E289 silent |
| E290 2026-09-26 | decay | -0.9 | 20.7 | E290 silent |
| E291 2026-10-02 | decay | -0.8 | 19.9 | E291 silent |
| E292 2026-10-10 | decay | -0.8 | 19.1 | E292 silent |
| E293 2026-10-17 | decay | -0.8 | 18.3 | E293 silent |
| E294 2026-10-23 | decay | -0.7 | 17.6 | E294 silent |
| E295 2026-10-30 | decay | -0.7 | 16.9 | E295 silent |
| E296 2026-11-07 | decay | -0.7 | 16.2 | E296 silent |