◢ ALL-IN ALPHA research only · never trades · 2026-09-10

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🪙 Solana is the layer-1 that challenges Ethereum

A cheaper, faster smart-contract L1 takes share from Ethereum — Silicon Valley smart money is betting on a 'flippening' where Solana climbs the market-cap ranks and potentially displaces ETH as the preferred platform.

0 CONVICTION
peaked 68.9 GREEN
DORMANT
band · contested
▲ LONG cg:solana
expression · bullish crypto
MISS
outcome · R -79.0% · α -63.7%
2022-10-09
window closed

⚖ Why this verdict

fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set

  1. Window: 2021-10-09 → 2022-10-09 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
  2. The call: ▲ LONG cg:solana (primary play). cg:solana fell 79.0% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -79.0% (the call lost money).
  3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned -15.3% → α = -79.0 − (-15.3) = -63.7% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
  4. Rule fired:
    · HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5
    · PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0
    ▶ MISS — everything else
  5. Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Sacks | opposed: Jason

Conviction timeline

bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15

Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-10-09)

Plays

expressionsymbolkindrelevancerationale
▲ LONG cg:solanacrypto PRIMARY direct expression of the flippening bet; Sacks discloses ~$1B of SOL exposure via MultiCoin
▲ LONG cg:avalanche-2crypto adjacent the other alt-L1 Ethereum challenger of this cycle; trades on the same thesis

Mention log

Sacks
Sacks crypto w=1.11 · n=18 · E50 (2021-10-09) · positioning · strength 3 ▶ 4:17 SUPPORT
“As a result of that, we are indirect beneficiaries of this huge increase in Solana. It will end up being about a billion dollars of, I think, Solana for us in terms of returns.”
Jason
Jason crypto w=0.69 · n=13 · E50 (2021-10-09) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 5:13 SUPPORT
“Additionally, it is a fraction of a penny for a transaction, and it can do many more transactions than Ethereum. So it's, you know, technically should be much cheaper.”
Sacks
Sacks crypto w=1.11 · n=18 · E55 (2021-11-13) · positioning · strength 3 ▶ 12:57 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo
“I mean, I learned a lot of really bullish things about Solana, you know, at this conference. ... you could say that I'm long Solana versus ETH ... I can tell you right now, like this second, we are sitting on Solana that we have not sold. So, you know, I am long in that sense.”
Chamath
Chamath crypto w=1.00 · n=20 · E55 (2021-11-13) · positioning · strength 3 ▶ 8:59 SUPPORT
“I've only been a buyer. I haven't sold a single Solana token. We are net buyers and we're buying a bunch of stuff. ... I think the writing is on the wall, which is Bitcoin is gold, Ethereum looks like it's trending to be silver, and Solana could be the first, but there will be others that come after it of real developer ecosystems that can be built on top of it.”
Jason
Jason crypto w=0.69 · n=13 · E56 (2021-11-20) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 16:40 SUPPORT
“You need to identify through projects like this, the gas fees are a problem so people can move this to Solana.”
Jason
Jason crypto w=0.69 · n=13 · E84 (2022-06-24) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 56:07 OPPOSE
“They had a whale who had tried to loan out $100 million and they had to freeze their account because they thought the downward pressure, since there's not many buyers in crypto right now, could collapse Solana.”

Who built this conviction

each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Sacks
Sacks w=1.11
2 scoring events · 58% of moves
+48.5 → net +48.5
Jason
Jason w=0.69
3 scoring events · 23% of moves
+12.2 / -6.6 → net +5.5
Chamath
Chamath w=1.00
1 scoring event · 19% of moves
+15.7 → net +15.7

⏳ decay drained -59.8 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one

Score events

episodekindΔafternote
E50 2021-10-09 init +40.0 40.0 E50 born by Sacks (positioning x3) [w=1.11]
E50 2021-10-09 reinforce +9.3 49.3 E50 Jason support x2 (new voice) [w=0.69]
E51 2021-10-16 decay -2.0 47.4 E51 silent
E52 2021-10-23 decay -1.9 45.5 E52 silent
E53 2021-10-30 decay -1.8 43.7 E53 silent
E54 2021-11-06 decay -1.7 41.9 E54 silent
E55 2021-11-13 reinforce +15.7 57.6 E55 Chamath support x3 (new voice)
E55 2021-11-13 reinforce +8.5 66.1 E55 Sacks support x3 [w=1.11]
E56 2021-11-20 reinforce +2.8 68.9 E56 Jason support x1 [w=0.69]
E57 2021-12-04 decay -2.8 66.1 E57 silent
E58 2021-12-11 decay -2.6 63.5 E58 silent
E59 2021-12-17 decay -2.5 61.0 E59 silent
E60 2021-12-23 decay -2.4 58.5 E60 silent
E61 2021-12-29 decay -2.3 56.2 E61 silent
E62 2022-01-08 decay -2.2 53.9 E62 silent
E63 2022-01-15 decay -2.2 51.8 E63 silent
E64 2022-01-22 decay -2.1 49.7 E64 silent
E65 2022-01-29 decay -2.0 47.7 E65 silent
E66 2022-02-05 decay -1.9 45.8 E66 silent
E67 2022-02-12 decay -1.8 44.0 E67 silent
E68 2022-02-19 decay -1.8 42.2 E68 silent
E70 2022-02-24 decay -1.7 40.5 E70 silent
E71 2022-03-05 decay -1.6 38.9 E71 silent
E72 2022-03-19 decay -1.6 37.3 E72 silent
E73 2022-03-26 decay -1.5 35.9 E73 silent
E74 2022-04-01 decay -1.4 34.4 E74 silent
E75 2022-04-09 decay -1.4 33.0 E75 silent
E76 2022-04-16 decay -1.3 31.7 E76 silent
E77 2022-04-23 decay -1.3 30.5 E77 silent
E78 2022-04-30 decay -1.2 29.2 E78 silent
E79 2022-05-07 decay -1.2 28.1 E79 silent
E80 2022-05-13 decay -1.1 26.9 E80 silent
E81 2022-05-23 decay -1.1 25.9 E81 silent
E82 2022-05-24 decay -1.0 24.8 E82 silent
E84 2022-06-24 oppose -6.6 18.2 E84 Jason opposes x1 [w=0.69]
E85 2022-06-30 decay -0.7 17.5 E85 silent
E86 2022-07-08 decay -0.7 16.8 E86 silent
E87 2022-07-14 decay -0.7 16.1 E87 silent
E88 2022-07-22 decay -0.6 15.4 E88 silent
E89 2022-07-29 decay -0.6 14.8 E89 silent
E90 2022-08-05 decay -0.6 14.2 E90 silent
E91 2022-08-13 decay -0.6 13.7 E91 silent
E92 2022-08-20 decay -0.5 13.1 E92 silent
E93 2022-08-26 decay -0.5 12.6 E93 silent
E94 2022-09-01 decay -0.5 12.1 E94 silent
E95 2022-09-10 decay -0.5 11.6 E95 silent
E96 2022-09-17 decay -0.5 11.1 E96 silent
E97 2022-09-23 decay -0.4 10.7 E97 silent
E98 2022-10-01 decay -0.4 10.3 E98 silent
E99 2022-10-07 decay -0.4 9.9 E99 silent