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📈 Residential real estate faces continued headwinds in 2025

Record consumer debt, unaffordable mortgages, and two straight years of falling Texas prices/rents where building is allowed — real estate is among 2025's worst assets.

0 CONVICTION
peaked 53.4 WATCH
EMBER
band · contested
▼ SHORT ITB
expression · bearish equities
WRONG
result · return +3.7% · vs SPY -12.4%
2026-01-04
born 2025-01-04 (E209) → window closed

other ideas on the same ticker, same direction: LA fire rebuild stalls for years, not months 13 (ITB)

⚖ Why this result

fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set

  1. Window: 2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
  2. The call: ▼ SHORT ITB (primary play). ITB fell 3.7% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = +3.7% (the call made money).
  3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +16.1% → vs SPY = +3.7 − (+16.1) = -12.4% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
    Direction-only read: +19.8% — did ITB move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
  4. Rule fired:
    · RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+
    · HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all
    ▶ WRONG — everything else
  5. Credit: supporters of a WRONG earn 0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Ben Shapiro, Chamath, Jason | opposed: Friedberg, Joe Lonsdale

Conviction timeline

bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15

Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2025-01-04)

Plays

expressionsymbolkindrelevancerationale
▼ SHORT ITBetf PRIMARY homebuilders — most direct listed expression of housing softness

Mention log newest first

Ben Shapiro
Ben Shapiro (regular guest ×1.0) equities 30% · n=5 · E238 (2025-08-09) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:07:25 SUPPORT
“if they're unwilling to move to places where the real estate is cheaper, then you are going to get more expensive real estate. And maybe you can build your way out of that. Or maybe you can't.”
Jason
Jason equities 49% · n=105 · E238 (2025-08-09) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:06:00 SUPPORT
“The housing issue is so oppressive to this generation and the cost of their education is so oppressive.”
Friedberg
Friedberg equities 43% · n=123 · E227 (2025-05-09) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 20:40 OPPOSE
“I was just looking at the mortgage delinquency rates. They're pretty flat right now. And that's, I think, because so many people did refinance when rates were low and there's a tremendous amount of mortgage balance with a low rate outstanding.”
Friedberg
Friedberg equities 43% · n=123 · E219 (2025-03-15) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 53:20 SUPPORT
“by creating this American dream around housing and allowing the federal government to provide loans on housing, we've increased the cost of housing. We've created a very destructive housing bubble”
Jason
Jason equities 49% · n=105 · E219 (2025-03-15) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 36:44 REVERSAL
“It's not going to happen, Chamath, explain it, because there are 7 million homes that we still need to build to serve as just current demand.”
Chamath
Chamath equities 42% · n=163 · E219 (2025-03-15) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 36:18 SUPPORT
“But the next big market, and this is actually where, Andrew, to your point, we reestablish some hope, I think, for a lot of people is we are going to whack the housing market. It's just going to happen.”
Joe Lonsdale
Joe Lonsdale (regular guest ×1.0) equities: 4 resolved, unproven · E218 (2025-03-08) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:10:11 OPPOSE
“I have someone who works with me, their spouse, was a real estate agent, and they are having a really tough couple of years because the industry has spiked up. If you get the industry down again, there are so many different places in America where people start making money again, with the title companies, with brokers, there are so many things that happen with that.”
Chamath
Chamath equities 42% · n=163 · E217 (2025-03-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 43:09 SUPPORT
“So if you have many, many years of austerity, what does it really result in? I think if you want to cement political power, I think it requires a walking down of these asset markets in a meaningful way. That's stocks and that's real estate. And I just don't see any other way around it.”
Jason
Jason equities 49% · n=105 · E213 (2025-01-31) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:36:51 SUPPORT
“And if you want to see what happens when you have unlimited land, if you live in Austin and you see the distance between San Antonio, Houston and Dallas and Austin in that triangle, you get 30 minutes outside of the city centers. There's just unlimited land and there's less regulation. And you know what's happened? Housing prices and rents have come down two or three years in a row. So this could happen in other major cities.”
Jason
Jason equities 49% · n=105 · E209 (2025-01-04) · annual_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:29:24 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo
“Real estate is the same... people can't afford homes with these mortgages... in Texas, two years in a row housing values have gone down, rent has gone down... these are going to be among the worst performing assets.”

Who built this conviction

each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Jason
Jason 49%
4 scoring events · 53% of moves
+62.9 / -31.2 → net +31.8
Friedberg
Friedberg 43%
2 scoring events · 17% of moves
+17.8 / -12.0 → net +5.8
Chamath
Chamath 42%
2 scoring events · 14% of moves
+24.1 → net +24.1
Ben Shapiro
Ben Shapiro 30% regular guest ×1.0
1 scoring event · 10% of moves
+16.9 → net +16.9
Joe Lonsdale
Joe Lonsdale regular guest ×1.0
1 scoring event · 7% of moves
+0.0 / -12.0 → net -12.0

⏳ decay drained -46.4 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one

Score events

episodekindΔafternote
E209 2025-01-04 init +40.0 40.0 E209 born by Jason (annual_prediction x2)
E210 2025-01-11 decay -1.6 38.4 E210 silent
E211 2025-01-18 decay -1.5 36.9 E211 silent
E212 2025-01-25 decay -1.5 35.4 E212 silent
E213 2025-01-31 reinforce +9.7 45.1 E213 Jason support x2
E214 2025-02-07 decay -1.8 43.3 E214 silent
E215 2025-02-15 decay -1.7 41.5 E215 silent
E216 2025-02-21 decay -1.7 39.9 E216 silent
E217 2025-03-01 reinforce +13.5 53.4 E217 Chamath support x2 (new voice)
E218 2025-03-08 oppose -12.0 41.4 E218 Joe Lonsdale opposes x2
E219 2025-03-15 reinforce +10.5 52.0 E219 Chamath support x3
E219 2025-03-15 reversal -31.2 20.8 E219 Jason flips
E219 2025-03-15 reinforce +17.8 38.6 E219 Friedberg support x2 (new voice)
E220 2025-03-22 decay -1.5 37.1 E220 silent
E221 2025-03-29 decay -1.5 35.6 E221 silent
E222 2025-04-05 decay -1.4 34.2 E222 silent
E223 2025-04-11 decay -1.4 32.8 E223 silent
E224 2025-04-19 decay -1.3 31.5 E224 silent
E225 2025-04-26 decay -1.3 30.2 E225 silent
E226 2025-05-02 decay -1.2 29.0 E226 silent
E227 2025-05-09 oppose -12.0 17.0 E227 Friedberg opposes x2
E228 2025-05-17 decay -0.7 16.3 E228 silent
E229 2025-05-24 decay -0.7 15.7 E229 silent
E231 2025-06-13 decay -0.6 15.1 E231 silent
E232 2025-06-21 decay -0.6 14.4 E232 silent
E233 2025-06-28 decay -0.6 13.9 E233 silent
E234 2025-07-04 decay -0.6 13.3 E234 silent
E235 2025-07-11 decay -0.5 12.8 E235 silent
E236 2025-07-19 decay -0.5 12.3 E236 silent
E237 2025-08-01 decay -0.5 11.8 E237 silent
E238 2025-08-09 reinforce +13.2 25.0 E238 Jason support x2 (flipped from reversal)
E238 2025-08-09 reinforce +16.9 41.9 E238 Ben Shapiro support x2 (new voice)
E239 2025-08-15 decay -1.7 40.2 E239 silent
E240 2025-08-22 decay -1.6 38.6 E240 silent
E241 2025-08-29 decay -1.5 37.1 E241 silent
E242 2025-09-07 decay -1.5 35.6 E242 silent
E243 2025-09-19 decay -1.4 34.2 E243 silent
E244 2025-09-27 decay -1.4 32.8 E244 silent
E245 2025-10-03 decay -1.3 31.5 E245 silent
E246 2025-10-10 decay -1.3 30.2 E246 silent
E247 2025-10-17 decay -1.2 29.0 E247 silent
E248 2025-10-24 decay -1.2 27.8 E248 silent
E249 2025-10-31 decay -1.1 26.7 E249 silent
E250 2025-11-07 decay -1.1 25.7 E250 silent
E251 2025-11-14 decay -1.0 24.6 E251 silent
E252 2025-11-22 decay -1.0 23.7 E252 silent
E253 2025-12-06 decay -0.9 22.7 E253 silent
E254 2025-12-13 decay -0.9 21.8 E254 silent
E255 2025-12-19 decay -0.9 20.9 E255 silent
E256 2025-12-31 decay -0.8 20.1 E256 silent