📈 Hollywood's strikes are a fight over a shrinking pie

⚖ Why this result

fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set

1. Window: 2023-07-27 → 2024-07-27 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
2. The call: ▼ SHORT WBD (primary play). WBD fell 32.4% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = +32.4% (the call made money).
3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +22.0% → vs SPY = +32.4 − (+22.0) = +10.4% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
   Direction-only read: +54.4% — did WBD move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
4. Rule fired:
   ▶ RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+ ✓ (return 32.4, vs SPY 10.4)

   · HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all

   · WRONG — everything else
5. Credit: supporters of a RIGHT earn 1.0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath, Friedberg, Jason, Sacks | proxy-sensitive: DIS→MISS (-6.2%)

each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Friedberg 43%

1 scoring event · 56% of moves

+42.0 → net +42.0

Chamath 42%

1 scoring event · 18% of moves

+13.1 → net +13.1

Jason 49%

1 scoring event · 14% of moves

+10.1 → net +10.1

Sacks 44%

1 scoring event · 13% of moves

+9.4 → net +9.4

⏳ decay drained -63.2 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one