← pool

🏛️ Tort floodgates open on social media

The LA and New Mexico verdicts drew a map around Section 230 via product-liability law — trial lawyers now have a repeatable path against platforms with enormous cash flows, producing a death-by-a-thousand-cuts liability drag on Meta (and Google as co-defendant).

0 CONVICTION
peaked 35.0 EMBER
EMBER
band
▼ SHORT META
expression · bearish politics-market
—
moved yet?
days to scoring · born 2026-03-27 (E266) → 2027-03-27
IS THIS A TRADE? 🚫 Not a trade: conviction 20.4, ember.
⚠ CONFLICTING IDEAS ON THE SAME TICKER — the board is arguing with itself; net it out (ticker view →)
GOOGL · Anthropic IPO (~Oct 2026) is attractively priced at $1.5-2T LONG WATCH 61.3 ← stronger than this idea (20.4)
GOOGL · Google wins consumer AI via distribution LONG WATCH 57.9 ← stronger than this idea (20.4)
META · Meta becomes America's open-source AI champion LONG WATCH 55.4 ← stronger than this idea (20.4)
META · Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice LONG WATCH 49.3 ← stronger than this idea (20.4)
GOOGL · Own AWS, Azure and GCP and nothing else — the clouds capture the AI application dollars LONG WATCH 47.9 ← stronger than this idea (20.4)
GOOGL · Frontier AI labs keep durable premium pricing (not commoditized) LONG EMBER 37.7 ← stronger than this idea (20.4)
META · The AI doomer campaign fails — no FDAI, open source survives LONG EMBER 30.5 ← stronger than this idea (20.4)
GOOGL · Personal AI agents: Google's data moat wins the form factor LONG EMBER 22.9 ← stronger than this idea (20.4)
GOOGL · Independent frontier-model labs lose to hyperscaler capital LONG EMBER 18.3
META · Independent frontier-model labs lose to hyperscaler capital LONG EMBER 18.3
GOOGL · Willow's error-correction scaling puts encryption on a two-to-five-year clock LONG DORMANT 8.5
META · Meta's AI assistant takes ten points of search share from Google LONG DORMANT 6.4

other ideas on the same ticker, same direction: ChatGPT takes Google search share and the market starts pricing the decay 21 (GOOGL) · Blue cities ban or license-cap robotaxis 20 (GOOGL) · Meta's AI assistant takes ten points of search share from Google 6 (GOOGL) · Narrow Section 230 carve-out unleashes a tort wave on social platforms 3 (META)

Conviction timeline

bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15

Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2026-03-27)

Plays

expressionsymbolkindrelevancerationale
▼ SHORT METAstock PRIMARY lost both verdicts ($375M New Mexico, LA negligence) — primary tort target
▼ SHORT GOOGLstock adjacent YouTube named co-defendant in the LA addiction verdict

Mention log newest first

Chamath
Chamath politics-market 51% · n=95 · E289 (2026-09-11) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 53:36 SUPPORT
“The long tail of issues are going to be, if social media is a guide, this will be as bad or worse.”
Chamath
Chamath politics-market 51% · n=95 · E266 (2026-03-27) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:04:24 SUPPORT
“this was the first time where they were able to navigate the Section 230 protections ... the door has been opened and a map has been drawn, ... I expect that this will be a death by a thousand cuts kind of scenario”

Who built this conviction

each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Chamath
Chamath 51%
2 scoring events · 100% of moves
+47.9 → net +47.9

⏳ decay drained -27.5 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one

Score events

episodekindΔafternote
E266 2026-03-27 init +35.0 35.0 E266 born by Chamath (explicit_prediction x2)
E267 2026-04-03 decay -1.4 33.6 E267 silent
E268 2026-04-10 decay -1.3 32.3 E268 silent
E269 2026-04-17 decay -1.3 31.0 E269 silent
E270 2026-04-24 decay -1.2 29.7 E270 silent
E271 2026-05-01 decay -1.2 28.5 E271 silent
E272 2026-05-08 decay -1.1 27.4 E272 silent
E273 2026-05-15 decay -1.1 26.3 E273 silent
E274 2026-05-22 decay -1.1 25.2 E274 silent
E275 2026-05-29 decay -1.0 24.2 E275 silent
E276 2026-06-13 decay -1.0 23.3 E276 silent
E277 2026-06-19 decay -0.9 22.3 E277 silent
E278 2026-06-26 decay -0.9 21.4 E278 silent
E279 2026-07-03 decay -0.9 20.6 E279 silent
E280 2026-07-11 decay -0.8 19.8 E280 silent
E281 2026-07-18 decay -0.8 19.0 E281 silent
E282 2026-07-24 decay -0.8 18.2 E282 silent
E283 2026-07-31 decay -0.7 17.5 E283 silent
E284 2026-08-08 decay -0.7 16.8 E284 silent
E285 2026-08-14 decay -0.7 16.1 E285 silent
E286 2026-08-21 decay -0.6 15.5 E286 silent
E287 2026-08-29 decay -0.6 14.9 E287 silent
E288 2026-09-04 decay -0.6 14.3 E288 silent
E289 2026-09-11 reinforce +12.9 27.1 E289 Chamath support x2
E290 2026-09-26 decay -1.1 26.0 E290 silent
E291 2026-10-02 decay -1.0 25.0 E291 silent
E292 2026-10-10 decay -1.0 24.0 E292 silent
E293 2026-10-17 decay -1.0 23.0 E293 silent
E294 2026-10-23 decay -0.9 22.1 E294 silent
E295 2026-10-30 decay -0.9 21.2 E295 silent
E296 2026-11-07 decay -0.8 20.4 E296 silent