🤖 Deep physical science and R&D is the one long-duration bet still worth buying
Chamath's December-2021 spread against his own growth-multiple bearishness: with money-losing software stories selling cash flows 10-12 years out no longer buyable, the ONE category of long-duration company he says he is still buying is deep physical science and R&D, because the payoff in success is so asymmetric that it clears a risk-adjusted bar even with a non-zero discount rate. Disclosed as active positioning while he de-levers the rest of the book. Expressed through the listed hard-tech / deep-physical-science complex rather than the high-multiple software cohort he is trimming.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 32.7 EMBER
EMBER
band
▲ LONG ARKQ
expression · bullish tech
MISS
outcome · R -40.0% · α -30.0%
2022-12-04
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-12-04 → 2022-12-04 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG ARKQ (primary play). ARKQ fell 40.0% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -40.0% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned -10.0% → α = -40.0 − (-10.0) = -30.0% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Friedberg
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-12-04)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | ARKQ | etf | PRIMARY | listed basket closest to 'deep physical science and R&D' — autonomous tech, robotics, industrial hard-tech with heavy R&D spend |
| ▲ LONG | ACHR | stock | adjacent | Archer Aviation — one of his listed pre-revenue hard-science vehicles, the pure form of the 'asymmetric outcome in success' bet |
| ▲ LONG | MP | stock | adjacent | MP Materials — the deep-physical-science deal Chamath names in this same episode as his own (with Fortress) and holds up as the template |
Mention log
Chamath
tech w=0.90 · n=83
· E57 (2021-12-04) · positioning · strength 3
▶ 40:44
SUPPORT
“There is one kind of version of that company, though, that you can buy, in my opinion, and what I am still buying, which is deep physical science and R&D, because those businesses in some ways are still on a risk-adjusted basis, in my opinion. ... the outcome in success is so asymmetric. Those are really interesting to me businesses in moments like this where, you know, if I'm, if I'm de-levering my portfolio, that's how I'm thinking about it, which is I want to make those kind of bets in the future.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -32.2 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E57 2021-12-04 | init | +32.5 | 32.5 | E57 born by Chamath (positioning x3) [w=0.90] |
| E58 2021-12-11 | decay | -1.3 | 31.2 | E58 silent |
| E59 2021-12-17 | decay | -1.2 | 30.0 | E59 silent |
| E60 2021-12-23 | decay | -1.2 | 28.8 | E60 silent |
| E61 2021-12-29 | decay | -1.2 | 27.6 | E61 silent |
| E62 2022-01-08 | decay | -1.1 | 26.5 | E62 silent |
| E63 2022-01-15 | decay | -1.1 | 25.5 | E63 silent |
| E64 2022-01-22 | decay | -1.0 | 24.4 | E64 silent |
| E65 2022-01-29 | decay | -1.0 | 23.5 | E65 silent |
| E66 2022-02-05 | decay | -0.9 | 22.5 | E66 silent |
| E67 2022-02-12 | decay | -0.9 | 21.6 | E67 silent |
| E68 2022-02-19 | decay | -0.9 | 20.8 | E68 silent |
| E70 2022-02-24 | decay | -0.8 | 19.9 | E70 silent |
| E71 2022-03-05 | decay | -0.8 | 19.1 | E71 silent |
| E72 2022-03-19 | decay | -0.8 | 18.4 | E72 silent |
| E73 2022-03-26 | decay | -0.7 | 17.6 | E73 silent |
| E74 2022-04-01 | decay | -0.7 | 16.9 | E74 silent |
| E75 2022-04-09 | decay | -0.7 | 16.3 | E75 silent |
| E76 2022-04-16 | decay | -0.7 | 15.6 | E76 silent |
| E77 2022-04-23 | decay | -0.6 | 15.0 | E77 silent |
| E78 2022-04-30 | decay | -0.6 | 14.4 | E78 silent |
| E79 2022-05-07 | decay | -0.6 | 13.8 | E79 silent |
| E80 2022-05-13 | decay | -0.6 | 13.3 | E80 silent |
| E81 2022-05-23 | decay | -0.5 | 12.7 | E81 silent |
| E82 2022-05-24 | decay | -0.5 | 12.2 | E82 silent |
| E84 2022-06-24 | decay | -0.5 | 11.7 | E84 silent |
| E85 2022-06-30 | decay | -0.5 | 11.3 | E85 silent |
| E86 2022-07-08 | decay | -0.5 | 10.8 | E86 silent |
| E87 2022-07-14 | decay | -0.4 | 10.4 | E87 silent |
| E88 2022-07-22 | decay | -0.4 | 10.0 | E88 silent |
| E89 2022-07-29 | decay | -0.4 | 9.6 | E89 silent |
| E90 2022-08-05 | decay | -0.4 | 9.2 | E90 silent |
| E91 2022-08-13 | decay | -0.4 | 8.8 | E91 silent |
| E92 2022-08-20 | decay | -0.4 | 8.5 | E92 silent |
| E93 2022-08-26 | decay | -0.3 | 8.1 | E93 silent |
| E94 2022-09-01 | decay | -0.3 | 7.8 | E94 silent |
| E95 2022-09-10 | decay | -0.3 | 7.5 | E95 silent |
| E96 2022-09-17 | decay | -0.3 | 7.2 | E96 silent |
| E97 2022-09-23 | decay | -0.3 | 6.9 | E97 silent |
| E98 2022-10-01 | decay | -0.3 | 6.6 | E98 silent |
| E99 2022-10-07 | decay | -0.3 | 6.4 | E99 silent |
| E100 2022-10-14 | reinforce | +10.2 | 16.5 | E100 Chamath support x1 [w=0.90] |
| E100 2022-10-14 | reinforce | +16.2 | 32.7 | E100 Friedberg support x1 (new voice) [w=1.08] |
| E101 2022-10-22 | decay | -1.3 | 31.4 | E101 silent |
| E102 2022-10-29 | decay | -1.3 | 30.1 | E102 silent |
| E103 2022-11-05 | decay | -1.2 | 28.9 | E103 silent |
| E105 2022-11-19 | decay | -1.2 | 27.8 | E105 silent |
| E106 2022-12-03 | decay | -1.1 | 26.7 | E106 silent |