🏛️ Biological Patriot Act: vaccine passports and private mandates arrive and get upheld
Cities, venues and private employers adopt proof-of-vaccination requirements; the question is litigated to the Supreme Court which, following Masterpiece Cakeshop, narrowly lets private businesses decide — normalizing mandates, shrinking tolerance for anti-vaccination, and pulling forward vaccine demand.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 42.0 EMBER
EMBER
band
▲ LONG MRNA
expression · bullish politics-market
HALF
result · return +10.5% · vs SPY -4.2%
2022-03-06
born 2021-03-06 (E24) → window closed
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-03-06 → 2022-03-06 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG MRNA (primary play). MRNA rose 10.5% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = +10.5% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +14.7% → vs SPY = +10.5 − (+14.7) = -4.2% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
- Rule fired:
· RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+▶ HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all· WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a HALF earn 0.5 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath, Friedberg, Sacks | proxy-sensitive: BNTX→HIT (+50.9%); PFE→HIT (+46.7%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-03-06)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | MRNA | stock | PRIMARY | mandates and passports convert hesitancy into dose demand for the leading mRNA supplier |
| ▲ LONG | BNTX | stock | adjacent | shares the Pfizer vaccine economics with more torque |
| ▲ LONG | PFE | stock | adjacent | second approved US vaccine, same mandate-driven volume |
Mention log newest first
Sacks
politics-market 48% · n=87
· E60 (2021-12-23) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 1:23:43
SUPPORT
“You've now got the unvaccinated treated as some sort of untouchable class of citizens who aren't able to leave their house except to buy food and medicine. ... Boston just announced they're banning unvaccinated people from going to all restaurants, bars, nightclubs, sport arenas, fitness centers, movie theaters and on and on it goes.”
Sacks
politics-market 48% · n=87
· E59 (2021-12-17) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 50:01
OPPOSE
“the little stupid vax card that you have to show everywhere to get like popcorn at a movie theater like, you know, in San Francisco. It doesn't do anything because vaccinated people can spread it too. So that doesn't do anything.”
Friedberg
politics-market 42% · n=74
· E49 (2021-10-02) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 38:31
SUPPORT
“I mean, if you're going to mandate, if you're going to mandate vaccines for workplaces and mandate vaccines for schools, you know, the NBA is going to, you know, not be kind of excluded here. It's what it is.”
Chamath
politics-market 51% · n=95
· E24 (2021-03-06) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 42:09
SUPPORT
“I'm going to put another marker out there, by the way, because like, you know, there may be something like this in New York. I think most cities will have to have them. ... So I think that there's going to be these biological patriot acts, unfortunately. And then the second thing that I'll say is that I do think that it will get litigated to the Supreme Court. And I think that narrowly, what will come down is that businesses will be able to decide.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -35.8 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E24 2021-03-06 | init | +42.0 | 42.0 | E24 born by Chamath (explicit_prediction x3) |
| E24 2021-03-06 | oppose | -12.0 | 30.0 | E24 Sacks opposes x2 |
| E25 2021-03-13 | decay | -1.2 | 28.8 | E25 silent |
| E26 2021-03-20 | decay | -1.2 | 27.6 | E26 silent |
| E27 2021-03-27 | decay | -1.1 | 26.5 | E27 silent |
| E28 2021-04-01 | decay | -1.1 | 25.5 | E28 silent |
| E29 2021-04-17 | decay | -1.0 | 24.5 | E29 silent |
| E30 2021-04-23 | decay | -1.0 | 23.5 | E30 silent |
| E31 2021-05-01 | decay | -0.9 | 22.5 | E31 silent |
| E32 2021-05-13 | decay | -0.9 | 21.6 | E32 silent |
| E33 2021-05-22 | decay | -0.9 | 20.8 | E33 silent |
| E34 2021-05-31 | decay | -0.8 | 19.9 | E34 silent |
| E35 2021-06-13 | decay | -0.8 | 19.1 | E35 silent |
| E36 2021-06-18 | decay | -0.8 | 18.4 | E36 silent |
| E37 2021-06-25 | decay | -0.7 | 17.6 | E37 silent |
| E38 2021-07-03 | decay | -0.7 | 16.9 | E38 silent |
| E39 2021-07-09 | decay | -0.7 | 16.3 | E39 silent |
| E40 2021-07-16 | decay | -0.7 | 15.6 | E40 silent |
| E41 2021-07-23 | decay | -0.6 | 15.0 | E41 silent |
| E42 2021-07-30 | decay | -0.6 | 14.4 | E42 silent |
| E43 2021-08-06 | decay | -0.6 | 13.8 | E43 silent |
| E44 2021-08-28 | decay | -0.6 | 13.3 | E44 silent |
| E45 2021-09-04 | decay | -0.5 | 12.7 | E45 silent |
| E46 2021-09-14 | decay | -0.5 | 12.2 | E46 silent |
| E47 2021-09-18 | decay | -0.5 | 11.7 | E47 silent |
| E49 2021-10-02 | reinforce | +19.9 | 31.6 | E49 Friedberg support x2 (new voice) |
| E50 2021-10-09 | decay | -1.3 | 30.3 | E50 silent |
| E51 2021-10-16 | decay | -1.2 | 29.1 | E51 silent |
| E52 2021-10-23 | decay | -1.2 | 28.0 | E52 silent |
| E53 2021-10-30 | decay | -1.1 | 26.8 | E53 silent |
| E54 2021-11-06 | decay | -1.1 | 25.8 | E54 silent |
| E55 2021-11-13 | decay | -1.0 | 24.7 | E55 silent |
| E56 2021-11-20 | decay | -1.0 | 23.7 | E56 silent |
| E57 2021-12-04 | decay | -0.9 | 22.8 | E57 silent |
| E58 2021-12-11 | decay | -0.9 | 21.9 | E58 silent |
| E59 2021-12-17 | oppose | -12.0 | 9.9 | E59 Sacks opposes x2 |
| E60 2021-12-23 | reinforce | +13.5 | 23.4 | E60 Sacks support x2 (flipped from oppose) |
| E61 2021-12-29 | decay | -0.9 | 22.5 | E61 silent |
| E62 2022-01-08 | decay | -0.9 | 21.6 | E62 silent |
| E63 2022-01-15 | decay | -0.9 | 20.7 | E63 silent |
| E64 2022-01-22 | decay | -0.8 | 19.9 | E64 silent |
| E65 2022-01-29 | decay | -0.8 | 19.1 | E65 silent |
| E66 2022-02-05 | decay | -0.8 | 18.3 | E66 silent |
| E67 2022-02-12 | decay | -0.7 | 17.6 | E67 silent |
| E68 2022-02-19 | decay | -0.7 | 16.9 | E68 silent |
| E70 2022-02-24 | decay | -0.7 | 16.2 | E70 silent |
| E71 2022-03-05 | decay | -0.6 | 15.6 | E71 silent |