+0.0
net board stance
what this means
26.16
-1.2% · close 2026-09-08
+3% / +11% / -14%
1m / 3m / 12m
-70%
vs SPY since 2024-08-09
44%
of 52w range · -17.4% off high
—
hit rate as primary
Where we stand — 0 live ideas
No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
Track record on CMCSA
No closed window has used this ticker as its primary play, so there is no scored record here yet. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📈 Top-tier IP collections still win — you can't displace Disney | ▲ LONG | adjacent | MISS | -38.2% | -37.9 | 2022-05-31 |
| 🏛️ Pharma ad ban plus FCC licence pressure guts broadcast TV | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | HIT | +90.7% | +75.1 | 2025-11-16 |
| 📈 The churn treadmill breaks standalone streaming subscriptions | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | PARTIAL | +8.0% | -17.4 | 2025-01-19 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding CMCSA, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
And it just further erodes what's happening. I think if once Bobby puts a nail on the coffin of pharma ads on TV.
And then separately, with Bobby Kennedy's nomination to HHS, one of the things that he has said that he wants to put an end to is the advertising that pharma does on these broadcast stations. If you put these two things together where you deprive these folks of their largest revenue source, and at the same time, they have to sort of like answer for censorship or manipulating content, do you think that that changes the landscape of how all these companies behave in the future, or how do you think that that plays out?
In any event, I think that there's a very strong argument that the broadcasters have not been fair. That's a violation of their licensed requirements and we should be re-evaluating their spectrum, especially because it's not the highest best use spectrum anyway.
And if they lose all that advertising from Pharma, which I think in some of these networks is a third or a half, and that's all networks, that's from Fox to CNN and MSNBC, everybody combined, if they lose advertising from Pharma, it's over. Like those news networks are going to lose half their revenue overnight. That would be a death blow, Chamath, to your question.
It's clearly going to be massive consolidation.
I personally have never seen a B2C subscription business that works. The churn is just too high.
So I suspect that you're just going to see a lot of churn. I don't like this category at all as an investor.
and the advantage Disney has is the rewatchability of their content. ... And the Star Wars content, as you guys know, you could rewatch Star Wars and Marvel.
I would say Disney has Marvel, and that's why. They have Marvel and Star Wars, and that's kept them extremely relevant.
When you own the franchise, it has value. Disney has shown that. You own the best franchise.
These archives are going to be super valuable. And I don't think we even know how to value these archives yet because if you look at the Marvel archive or the Star Wars archive, these things just keep printing money year after year.
I like HBO Max more than Disney Plus. ... Disney Plus doesn't seem to have a monopoly for me. HBO Max has such a depth of content.
I think that $118 million is going to go to $300 million. Because they announced so much content from the Star Wars, Marvel, Pixar, Disney ecosystem that is coming this year and next year. ... Like, this library is going to have a ridiculous 2022
Their whole business, they're going to catch up to Netflix and then they're going to roll Netflix. They're going to roll right over Netflix.
I'm not disputing that people won't pay $9.99. What I'm disputing is the denominator of what they're paying for is increasing so fast that no one piece of content matters, Jason.
And so Disney's content library is so powerful for that particular demographic, basically the demographic of anyone with children, that it's an instant on kind of moment.
I think for the top tier IP, like you can't displace a Disney and they are growing portfolio of IP and those things are high margin. And, you know, having 250 to 500 million people paying you monthly has never existed in the history of humanity.