📈 Gemini blunder forces a Meta-style purge — GOOGL at 17x is the buy point

Friedberg equities w=0.87 · n=120 · E168 (2024-03-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 11:54 SUPPORT

“So there may be a moment here where Google stock, which currently is trading at just 17 times 2025 consensus earnings, which is cheaper than all the other big tech companies by far and is still growing. ... So the bull case is now is a great time to buy because it's so cheap and there could be this moment where you see some of the changes that are needed internally to get the AI products to where they need to be to maintain the lead that is inherent because of search.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E168 (2024-03-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 20:59 OPPOSE

“All Google needs to see is 300, 500 basis points of change. ... And the market cap of this company is going to get cut in half. ... Okay, because there is only one way to go when you have 92% share of a market and that is down. ... But in all of these choices, what I'm telling you on the dispassionate market side is if you see perplexity or anybody else clip off 50 basis points or 100 basis points of share and search, this thing is going straight down by 50%.”

Sacks equities w=0.89 · n=96 · E168 (2024-03-01) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 13:16 OPPOSE

“Do I think that Larry and Sergey are going to come in and pull an Elon and go deep and figure out which 50% or 20% of the company is actually good in doing their jobs? Probably not. But is it possible that they could make a leadership change? Yeah, it's possible. Probable? I don't know. I mean, I've heard that the company is the way it is because they like the way it is.”

Jason equities w=0.97 · n=105 · E168 (2024-03-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 27:51 SUPPORT

“Yeah, I think it's just that memo is a tip off that there is a 20,000, 30,000 person rift and a reorganization and they're just going to keep cutting the DI group.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E173 (2024-04-05) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 36:15 OPPOSE

“But this is why I'm asking you, obviously they're not going to do this because things are going perfectly in that space. And so if you're losing share, you're not going to be losing it to Bing. You're losing it to some form of AI, which is why, again, it's a bit of a head scratcher.”

Friedberg equities w=0.87 · n=120 · E174 (2024-04-12) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 11:57 SUPPORT

“I think that's where a company like Google probably has a much bigger advantage because of the uniqueness and the quality of the models that they've developed”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E179 (2024-05-17) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:24:39 SUPPORT

“I think the Google thing is pretty special. Between last week's announcement of Isomorphic Labs, which let's be honest, that's just a multi-hundred billion dollar company.”

Jason equities w=0.97 · n=105 · E179 (2024-05-17) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:25:46 SUPPORT

“It's going to drive more research and more clicks. So while the monetization per search may go down, we might see many, many more searches.”

Friedberg equities w=0.87 · n=120 · E179 (2024-05-17) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:28:27 SUPPORT

“I can tell you Meta and Amazon do not have an isomorphic lab and Waymo sitting inside their business that suddenly pops to a couple hundred billion of market cap. And Google does have a few of those.”

Sacks equities w=0.89 · n=96 · E179 (2024-05-17) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:31:25 SUPPORT

“It's very clear now that Gemini powered OneBox is the future of Google search. People just want the answer. I think that this feature is gonna eat the rest of Google search.”

Friedberg equities w=0.87 · n=120 · E208 (2024-12-20) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:27:47 SUPPORT

“They were late, and the compounding effects are playing out, and it's only going to continue to compound.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E208 (2024-12-20) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:27:35 SUPPORT

“Google is incredible. They are firing on all cylinders.”

Jason equities w=0.97 · n=105 · E208 (2024-12-20) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:27:47 SUPPORT

“I think Google now has reached parity, and they have an app out.”

Aaron Levie (regular guest ×1.0) equities: 3 resolved, unproven · E208 (2024-12-20) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:32:31 SUPPORT

“you can tell that Google's woken up and they are just on full assault”