State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF

I don't see that, but if you want to see that, you can, but it will swing back. This country is incredibly resilient, and I have complete faith in that resilience.

Gavin Baker oppose ×2 ▼ on 🏛️ Socialism goes national in the US and ratchets taxes and spending higher E238 · 2025-08-09 ▶ 1:02:05

So they won't work. And I think that'll be a quick, that'll be like a quick end to socialism.

If things take a downturn, then the backlash is going to be a lot stronger than anything that any of us can say about the failures of Zoran Mamdani, because what it's going to be is, look, the rich got richer and we got poorer, and it's going to be a redox of 2007, 2008, but with a much, even further to the left than Obama ever was, and that I'm deeply afraid of.

Friedberg support ×3 ▼ on 🏛️ Socialism goes national in the US and ratchets taxes and spending higher E238 · 2025-08-09 ▶ 53:24

My prediction will ring fruer than any of us hope. Socialism will sweep over this nation, I fear. And I think it's a cancer.

Sacks support ×1 ▲ on 🏛️ A second Trump term reflates growth via deregulation and lower corporate tax E229 · 2025-05-24 ▶ 34:19

This bill passed by one vote margin. It was hanging on by a thread. And if it failed, you get basically hundreds of billions of tax increases, which we don't need right now.

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🌍 Contrarian: a mainline bank reserve crisis in 2025 (long CDS) E227 · 2025-05-09 ▶ 17:11

when you look back historically around these subprime lenders, whenever these guys start to see price to books, just start to escalate and get to pies, it tends to portend a liquidity crisis. It tends to show that things are about to roll over.

Sacks support ×1 ▲ on 🏛️ A second Trump term reflates growth via deregulation and lower corporate tax E226 · 2025-05-02 ▶ 16:13

But I do think that this sets us up for a Trump boom in the future. It's just that a lot of these changes take time to play out.

Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 🏛️ A second Trump term reflates growth via deregulation and lower corporate tax E226 · 2025-05-02 ▶ 41:41

This past week, Besson said that the tax bill will allow you to fully deduct all the PPE and all of the incidental costs of building a factory... The point is, that thing would create an absolute economic bonanza if it were to get passed.

Chamath support ×3 ▼ on 🌍 Contrarian: a mainline bank reserve crisis in 2025 (long CDS) E222 · 2025-04-05 ▶ 1:45:30

The problem with that is that there's a lot of companies that have debt covenants tied to revenue and EBITDA. And so this is what I spoke about at the beginning of January, which is the one risk that is uncontrollable is what happens to corporate debt. And could we see a wave of defaults and a wave of action?

Gavin Baker support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ A second Trump term reflates growth via deregulation and lower corporate tax E221 · 2025-03-29 ▶ 33:05

One thing everyone agrees on is deregulation is good. So every time they say the word tariff, they need to say the word deregulation two or three times.

Friedberg support ×3 ▲ on 🏛️ A second Trump term reflates growth via deregulation and lower corporate tax E221 · 2025-03-29 ▶ 36:47

Well, I think the proposal that I've heard from this administration that we heard from Howard Lutnick when we met with him was they're going to cut all taxes for people making less than $150,000 a year, so get the tax rate to zero.

Sacks support ×1 ▲ on 🏛️ A second Trump term reflates growth via deregulation and lower corporate tax E215 · 2025-02-15 ▶ 27:58

And by the way, that language about dominating AI and winning the global race, that is in President Trump's executive order from week one. So this is very much elaborating on the official policy of this administration.

Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ A second Trump term reflates growth via deregulation and lower corporate tax E212 · 2025-01-25 ▶ 16:03

And what I saw was a very broad-based embrace of business people, because I think that the president understands how important it is to make sure that economically, America is just firing on all cylinders.

Sacks support ×1 ▲ on 🏛️ A second Trump term reflates growth via deregulation and lower corporate tax E212 · 2025-01-25 ▶ 1:52:37

So the number one thing that that EO does is rescind the Biden EO, which we talked about in this podcast, I don't know how many episodes ago, but you remember it was this 100-page monstrosity of burdensome regulation.

Chamath support ×1 ▼ on 🌍 Contrarian: a mainline bank reserve crisis in 2025 (long CDS) E209 · 2025-01-04 ▶ 1:00:44

I think you're going to see a banking crisis in one of the major mainline banks... 5% rates today on $70 trillion is equivalent to 10% rates 25 or 30 years ago... I would be long CDS... 92 times out of 100 this goes to absolute zero... I hope I'm completely wrong. [Explicitly framed as low-probability insurance.]

there's actually this total combination of actually fewer regulations. You'll spend less money in government. You'll actually grow the economy faster, which will create more jobs.

Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ A second Trump term reflates growth via deregulation and lower corporate tax E207 · 2024-12-13 ▶ 14:53

I think that the United States economy is too complicated to be managed by theoreticians, by folks with random PhDs and absolutely no working experience in the real world. And when you bring those people in to oversee those PhDs, I think you probably get better outcomes.

I think almost all reasonable Americans can see that our growth is ridiculously constrained

Gavin Baker support ×3 ▲ on 🏛️ A second Trump term reflates growth via deregulation and lower corporate tax E206 · 2024-12-07 ▶ 4:43

So I just think deregulation and simplifying regulations and the tax code is going to lead to an immense amount of growth

Jason support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ A second Trump term reflates growth via deregulation and lower corporate tax E205 · 2024-11-23 ▶ 43:34

I think it's the greatest thing that could ever happen.

Sacks support ×3 ▲ on 🏛️ A second Trump term reflates growth via deregulation and lower corporate tax E205 · 2024-11-23 ▶ 9:11

I think that the expectations for DOGE right now are being set incredibly low by the media and by the Washington insiders. And I think there are good reasons to believe that the results will surpass those low expectations.

Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 🏛️ A second Trump term reflates growth via deregulation and lower corporate tax E205 · 2024-11-23 ▶ 20:09

But the idea of just cutting this all the way down and then finding through that process what you actually need, I think can find America a hundred, two hundred basis points of GDP growth. It could be an economic renaissance.

Friedberg support ×3 ▲ on 🏛️ A second Trump term reflates growth via deregulation and lower corporate tax E205 · 2024-11-23 ▶ 43:16

Look, if the federal budget gets to $3 trillion and regulation gets cut, if you get 50% of the regulations in federal agencies cut, I think you unleash an economic sonic boom. I'm all in on DOGE.

Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Deregulation re-rates the regulated old economy, not tech E204 · 2024-11-16 ▶ 27:57

It's a very narrow part of the economy. If you look on a broad-based basis, the tens and tens of trillions of dollars of market cap that exist, I do agree with you that deregulation benefits a bunch of those companies, but it benefits the non-tech businesses more than the tech businesses. The tech businesses right now are relatively lightly regulated.

Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ A second Trump term reflates growth via deregulation and lower corporate tax E204 · 2024-11-16 ▶ 26:40

If under Trump and the Republican control of the House and Senate, laws don't pass and regulations get reduced, theoretically, earnings are going to rip and you should pay a higher multiple today because you're actually buying these things at eight to ten times earnings five years from now.