📈 Regulatory certification makes sole-source aerospace suppliers pricing-power machines
Friedberg's read off TransDigm ('Transtime Group' in the transcript): certification cost makes it prohibitive for startups to enter, so the government's regulatory authority effectively elects winners who then hold sole-source contracts and raise price every year. $7B revenue at ~53% EBITDA margin, an 8-10 bagger over a decade, repeated DoD audits of excess profit on spare parts, and 'no end in sight'. The same regulatory-capture dynamic that rots Boeing is a durable moat for the certified-parts roll-ups.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 30.3 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▲ LONG TDG
expression · bullish equities
HIT
outcome · R +33.8% · α +8.4%
2025-01-19
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2024-01-19 → 2025-01-19 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG TDG (primary play). TDG rose 33.8% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +33.8% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +25.5% → α = +33.8 − (+25.5) = +8.4% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
▶ HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5 ✓ (R 33.8, α 8.4)· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0· MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a HIT earn 1.0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Friedberg
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2024-01-19)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | TDG | stock | PRIMARY | the company Friedberg audited on the show — certified sole-source parts roll-up |
| ▲ LONG | HEI | stock | adjacent | same certified-aftermarket-parts model, same barrier to entry |
Mention log
Friedberg
equities w=0.87 · n=120
· E162 (2024-01-19) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 28:56
SUPPORT
“The cost to get approval to make and sell these parts is so high that it makes it prohibitive for startups to come in and compete in this marketplace. And now that they're a preferred supplier and they get these single contracts where there's no competition to be a supplier, they can raise the price every year.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -26.2 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E162 2024-01-19 | init | +30.3 | 30.3 | E162 born by Friedberg (explicit_prediction x2) [w=0.87] |
| E163 2024-01-26 | decay | -1.2 | 29.1 | E163 silent |
| E164 2024-02-02 | decay | -1.2 | 28.0 | E164 silent |
| E165 2024-02-09 | decay | -1.1 | 26.8 | E165 silent |
| E166 2024-02-16 | decay | -1.1 | 25.8 | E166 silent |
| E167 2024-02-23 | decay | -1.0 | 24.7 | E167 silent |
| E168 2024-03-01 | decay | -1.0 | 23.7 | E168 silent |
| E169 2024-03-08 | decay | -0.9 | 22.8 | E169 silent |
| E170 2024-03-15 | decay | -0.9 | 21.9 | E170 silent |
| E171 2024-03-22 | decay | -0.9 | 21.0 | E171 silent |
| E172 2024-03-29 | decay | -0.8 | 20.2 | E172 silent |
| E173 2024-04-05 | decay | -0.8 | 19.4 | E173 silent |
| E174 2024-04-12 | decay | -0.8 | 18.6 | E174 silent |
| E175 2024-04-19 | decay | -0.7 | 17.8 | E175 silent |
| E176 2024-04-26 | decay | -0.7 | 17.1 | E176 silent |
| E177 2024-05-03 | decay | -0.7 | 16.4 | E177 silent |
| E178 2024-05-10 | decay | -0.7 | 15.8 | E178 silent |
| E179 2024-05-17 | decay | -0.6 | 15.2 | E179 silent |
| E180 2024-05-24 | decay | -0.6 | 14.5 | E180 silent |
| E181 2024-05-31 | decay | -0.6 | 14.0 | E181 silent |
| E182 2024-06-07 | decay | -0.6 | 13.4 | E182 silent |
| E183 2024-06-14 | decay | -0.5 | 12.9 | E183 silent |
| E184 2024-06-20 | decay | -0.5 | 12.4 | E184 silent |
| E185 2024-06-29 | decay | -0.5 | 11.9 | E185 silent |
| E186 2024-07-04 | decay | -0.5 | 11.4 | E186 silent |
| E187 2024-07-12 | decay | -0.5 | 10.9 | E187 silent |
| E188 2024-07-19 | decay | -0.4 | 10.5 | E188 silent |
| E189 2024-07-26 | decay | -0.4 | 10.1 | E189 silent |
| E190 2024-08-02 | decay | -0.4 | 9.7 | E190 silent |
| E191 2024-08-09 | decay | -0.4 | 9.3 | E191 silent |
| E192 2024-08-16 | decay | -0.4 | 8.9 | E192 silent |
| E193 2024-08-23 | decay | -0.4 | 8.6 | E193 silent |
| E194 2024-08-30 | decay | -0.3 | 8.2 | E194 silent |
| E195 2024-09-06 | decay | -0.3 | 7.9 | E195 silent |
| E196 2024-09-20 | decay | -0.3 | 7.6 | E196 silent |
| E197 2024-09-27 | decay | -0.3 | 7.3 | E197 silent |
| E198 2024-10-03 | decay | -0.3 | 7.0 | E198 silent |
| E199 2024-10-11 | decay | -0.3 | 6.7 | E199 silent |
| E200 2024-10-18 | decay | -0.3 | 6.4 | E200 silent |
| E201 2024-10-25 | decay | -0.3 | 6.2 | E201 silent |
| E202 2024-11-01 | decay | -0.2 | 5.9 | E202 silent |
| E203 2024-11-08 | decay | -0.2 | 5.7 | E203 silent |
| E204 2024-11-16 | decay | -0.2 | 5.5 | E204 silent |
| E205 2024-11-23 | decay | -0.2 | 5.2 | E205 silent |
| E206 2024-12-07 | decay | -0.2 | 5.0 | E206 silent |
| E207 2024-12-13 | decay | -0.2 | 4.8 | E207 silent |
| E208 2024-12-20 | decay | -0.2 | 4.6 | E208 silent |
| E209 2025-01-04 | decay | -0.2 | 4.5 | E209 silent |
| E210 2025-01-11 | decay | -0.2 | 4.3 | E210 silent |
| E211 2025-01-18 | decay | -0.2 | 4.1 | E211 silent |