← pool · child of Broken cost-plus procurement forces a shift to new-entrant defense tech
🏛️ Counter-drone defense becomes the new procurement line
Cheap swarming autonomous drones invert the cost math of defense - the US is burning $2M interceptors on $2,000 Houthi drones - so the money rotates into the counter-UAS layer: computer-vision gun turrets, targeted EMP, electronic warfare and EMP-hardened autonomous platforms. Sacks has led a seed round in exactly this (Allen Control Systems / Bullfrog) and Friedberg names several well-capitalized targeted-EMP startups, while the platform side of the budget - aircraft carriers and manned systems - loses priority as senior military voices call carriers outdated.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 50.4 WATCH
EMBER
band
▲ LONG KTOS
expression · bullish politics-market
RIGHT
result · return +82.5% · vs SPY +76.7%
2025-04-12
born 2024-04-12 (E174) → window closed
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2024-04-12 → 2025-04-12 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG KTOS (primary play). KTOS rose 82.5% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = +82.5% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +5.8% → vs SPY = +82.5 − (+5.8) = +76.7% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
- Rule fired:
▶ RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+ ✓ (return 82.5, vs SPY 76.7)· HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all· WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a RIGHT earn 1.0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Friedberg, Joe Lonsdale, Sacks | proxy-sensitive: AVAV→MISS (-0.5%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2024-04-12)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | KTOS | stock | PRIMARY | Kratos is the listed pure-play on drones plus counter-UAS and target systems |
| ▲ LONG | AVAV | stock | adjacent | AeroVironment is the drone-native new entrant on both the attack and counter-UAS side |
| ▲ LONG | LHX | stock | adjacent | L3Harris owns the electronic-warfare and counter-drone jamming franchise Sacks describes |
Mention log newest first
Joe Lonsdale
(regular guest ×1.0)
politics-market 50% · n=5
· E218 (2025-03-08) · positioning · strength 2
▶ 34:07
SUPPORT
“because the way it's worked for 20 years, like EPROS, you could just raise $250 million this week. It's a great company.”
Joe Lonsdale
(regular guest ×1.0)
politics-market 50% · n=5
· E206 (2024-12-07) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 45:50
SUPPORT
“But on the margin, I'd much rather have ten thousand more smart drones above and below the water than like an incremental carrier”
Sacks
politics-market 48% · n=87
· E174 (2024-04-12) · positioning · strength 3
▶ 1:19:56
SUPPORT
“The one defense investment I've made is actually in this idea of how do you defend against drones. It's a startup where I led the seed round called All-In Control Systems. They have a product called Bullfrog, which is a gun turret that uses a standard M240 machine gun”
Friedberg
politics-market 42% · n=74
· E174 (2024-04-12) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 1:16:53
SUPPORT
“targeted EMPs and targeted systems for eliminating all of these autonomous systems becomes a new defense technology that I know several startups in Silicon Valley that have been funded with a lot of capital by folks that we all know very well that are kind of pursuing this”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -50.9 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E174 2024-04-12 | init | +36.0 | 36.0 | E174 born by Sacks (positioning x3) |
| E174 2024-04-12 | reinforce | +14.4 | 50.4 | E174 Friedberg support x2 (new voice) |
| E175 2024-04-19 | decay | -2.0 | 48.4 | E175 silent |
| E176 2024-04-26 | decay | -1.9 | 46.4 | E176 silent |
| E177 2024-05-03 | decay | -1.9 | 44.6 | E177 silent |
| E178 2024-05-10 | decay | -1.8 | 42.8 | E178 silent |
| E179 2024-05-17 | decay | -1.7 | 41.1 | E179 silent |
| E180 2024-05-24 | decay | -1.6 | 39.5 | E180 silent |
| E181 2024-05-31 | decay | -1.6 | 37.9 | E181 silent |
| E182 2024-06-07 | decay | -1.5 | 36.4 | E182 silent |
| E183 2024-06-14 | decay | -1.5 | 34.9 | E183 silent |
| E184 2024-06-20 | decay | -1.4 | 33.5 | E184 silent |
| E185 2024-06-29 | decay | -1.3 | 32.2 | E185 silent |
| E186 2024-07-04 | decay | -1.3 | 30.9 | E186 silent |
| E187 2024-07-12 | decay | -1.2 | 29.6 | E187 silent |
| E188 2024-07-19 | decay | -1.2 | 28.5 | E188 silent |
| E189 2024-07-26 | decay | -1.1 | 27.3 | E189 silent |
| E190 2024-08-02 | decay | -1.1 | 26.2 | E190 silent |
| E191 2024-08-09 | decay | -1.0 | 25.2 | E191 silent |
| E192 2024-08-16 | decay | -1.0 | 24.2 | E192 silent |
| E193 2024-08-23 | decay | -1.0 | 23.2 | E193 silent |
| E194 2024-08-30 | decay | -0.9 | 22.3 | E194 silent |
| E195 2024-09-06 | decay | -0.9 | 21.4 | E195 silent |
| E196 2024-09-20 | decay | -0.9 | 20.5 | E196 silent |
| E197 2024-09-27 | decay | -0.8 | 19.7 | E197 silent |
| E198 2024-10-03 | decay | -0.8 | 18.9 | E198 silent |
| E199 2024-10-11 | decay | -0.8 | 18.2 | E199 silent |
| E200 2024-10-18 | decay | -0.7 | 17.4 | E200 silent |
| E201 2024-10-25 | decay | -0.7 | 16.7 | E201 silent |
| E202 2024-11-01 | decay | -0.7 | 16.1 | E202 silent |
| E203 2024-11-08 | decay | -0.6 | 15.4 | E203 silent |
| E204 2024-11-16 | decay | -0.6 | 14.8 | E204 silent |
| E205 2024-11-23 | decay | -0.6 | 14.2 | E205 silent |
| E206 2024-12-07 | reinforce | +11.6 | 25.8 | E206 Joe Lonsdale support x3 (new voice) [w=0.50] |
| E207 2024-12-13 | decay | -1.0 | 24.8 | E207 silent |
| E208 2024-12-20 | decay | -1.0 | 23.8 | E208 silent |
| E209 2025-01-04 | decay | -1.0 | 22.8 | E209 silent |
| E210 2025-01-11 | decay | -0.9 | 21.9 | E210 silent |
| E211 2025-01-18 | decay | -0.9 | 21.0 | E211 silent |
| E212 2025-01-25 | decay | -0.8 | 20.2 | E212 silent |
| E213 2025-01-31 | decay | -0.8 | 19.4 | E213 silent |
| E214 2025-02-07 | decay | -0.8 | 18.6 | E214 silent |
| E215 2025-02-15 | decay | -0.7 | 17.9 | E215 silent |
| E216 2025-02-21 | decay | -0.7 | 17.2 | E216 silent |
| E217 2025-03-01 | decay | -0.7 | 16.5 | E217 silent |
| E218 2025-03-08 | reinforce | +12.5 | 29.0 | E218 Joe Lonsdale support x2 |
| E219 2025-03-15 | decay | -1.2 | 27.8 | E219 silent |
| E220 2025-03-22 | decay | -1.1 | 26.7 | E220 silent |
| E221 2025-03-29 | decay | -1.1 | 25.7 | E221 silent |
| E222 2025-04-05 | decay | -1.0 | 24.6 | E222 silent |
| E223 2025-04-11 | decay | -1.0 | 23.6 | E223 silent |