← pool · child of Broken cost-plus procurement forces a shift to new-entrant defense tech
🏛️ Counter-drone defense becomes the new procurement line
Cheap swarming autonomous drones invert the cost math of defense - the US is burning $2M interceptors on $2,000 Houthi drones - so the money rotates into the counter-UAS layer: computer-vision gun turrets, targeted EMP, electronic warfare and EMP-hardened autonomous platforms. Sacks has led a seed round in exactly this (Allen Control Systems / Bullfrog) and Friedberg names several well-capitalized targeted-EMP startups, while the platform side of the budget - aircraft carriers and manned systems - loses priority as senior military voices call carriers outdated.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 47.1 WATCH
EMBER
band
▲ LONG KTOS
expression · bullish politics-market
HIT
outcome · R +82.5% · α +76.7%
2025-04-12
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2024-04-12 → 2025-04-12 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG KTOS (primary play). KTOS rose 82.5% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +82.5% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +5.8% → α = +82.5 − (+5.8) = +76.7% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
▶ HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5 ✓ (R 82.5, α 76.7)· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0· MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a HIT earn 1.0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Friedberg, Joe Lonsdale, Sacks | proxy-sensitive: AVAV→MISS (-0.5%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2024-04-12)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | KTOS | stock | PRIMARY | Kratos is the listed pure-play on drones plus counter-UAS and target systems |
| ▲ LONG | AVAV | stock | adjacent | AeroVironment is the drone-native new entrant on both the attack and counter-UAS side |
| ▲ LONG | LHX | stock | adjacent | L3Harris owns the electronic-warfare and counter-drone jamming franchise Sacks describes |
Mention log
Sacks
politics-market w=0.97 · n=88
· E174 (2024-04-12) · positioning · strength 3
▶ 1:19:56
SUPPORT
“The one defense investment I've made is actually in this idea of how do you defend against drones. It's a startup where I led the seed round called All-In Control Systems. They have a product called Bullfrog, which is a gun turret that uses a standard M240 machine gun”
Friedberg
politics-market w=0.84 · n=74
· E174 (2024-04-12) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 1:16:53
SUPPORT
“targeted EMPs and targeted systems for eliminating all of these autonomous systems becomes a new defense technology that I know several startups in Silicon Valley that have been funded with a lot of capital by folks that we all know very well that are kind of pursuing this”
JO
Joe Lonsdale
(regular guest ×1.0)
politics-market w=1.00 · n=5
· E206 (2024-12-07) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 45:50
SUPPORT
“But on the margin, I'd much rather have ten thousand more smart drones above and below the water than like an incremental carrier”
JO
Joe Lonsdale
(regular guest ×1.0)
politics-market w=1.00 · n=5
· E218 (2025-03-08) · positioning · strength 2
▶ 34:07
SUPPORT
“because the way it's worked for 20 years, like EPROS, you could just raise $250 million this week. It's a great company.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -53.5 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E174 2024-04-12 | init | +34.8 | 34.8 | E174 born by Sacks (positioning x3) [w=0.97] |
| E174 2024-04-12 | reinforce | +12.3 | 47.1 | E174 Friedberg support x2 (new voice) [w=0.84] |
| E175 2024-04-19 | decay | -1.9 | 45.2 | E175 silent |
| E176 2024-04-26 | decay | -1.8 | 43.4 | E176 silent |
| E177 2024-05-03 | decay | -1.7 | 41.6 | E177 silent |
| E178 2024-05-10 | decay | -1.7 | 40.0 | E178 silent |
| E179 2024-05-17 | decay | -1.6 | 38.4 | E179 silent |
| E180 2024-05-24 | decay | -1.5 | 36.8 | E180 silent |
| E181 2024-05-31 | decay | -1.5 | 35.4 | E181 silent |
| E182 2024-06-07 | decay | -1.4 | 34.0 | E182 silent |
| E183 2024-06-14 | decay | -1.4 | 32.6 | E183 silent |
| E184 2024-06-20 | decay | -1.3 | 31.3 | E184 silent |
| E185 2024-06-29 | decay | -1.3 | 30.0 | E185 silent |
| E186 2024-07-04 | decay | -1.2 | 28.8 | E186 silent |
| E187 2024-07-12 | decay | -1.2 | 27.7 | E187 silent |
| E188 2024-07-19 | decay | -1.1 | 26.6 | E188 silent |
| E189 2024-07-26 | decay | -1.1 | 25.5 | E189 silent |
| E190 2024-08-02 | decay | -1.0 | 24.5 | E190 silent |
| E191 2024-08-09 | decay | -1.0 | 23.5 | E191 silent |
| E192 2024-08-16 | decay | -0.9 | 22.6 | E192 silent |
| E193 2024-08-23 | decay | -0.9 | 21.7 | E193 silent |
| E194 2024-08-30 | decay | -0.9 | 20.8 | E194 silent |
| E195 2024-09-06 | decay | -0.8 | 20.0 | E195 silent |
| E196 2024-09-20 | decay | -0.8 | 19.2 | E196 silent |
| E197 2024-09-27 | decay | -0.8 | 18.4 | E197 silent |
| E198 2024-10-03 | decay | -0.7 | 17.7 | E198 silent |
| E199 2024-10-11 | decay | -0.7 | 17.0 | E199 silent |
| E200 2024-10-18 | decay | -0.7 | 16.3 | E200 silent |
| E201 2024-10-25 | decay | -0.7 | 15.6 | E201 silent |
| E202 2024-11-01 | decay | -0.6 | 15.0 | E202 silent |
| E203 2024-11-08 | decay | -0.6 | 14.4 | E203 silent |
| E204 2024-11-16 | decay | -0.6 | 13.8 | E204 silent |
| E205 2024-11-23 | decay | -0.6 | 13.3 | E205 silent |
| E206 2024-12-07 | reinforce | +23.4 | 36.7 | E206 Joe Lonsdale support x3 (new voice) |
| E207 2024-12-13 | decay | -1.5 | 35.2 | E207 silent |
| E208 2024-12-20 | decay | -1.4 | 33.8 | E208 silent |
| E209 2025-01-04 | decay | -1.4 | 32.5 | E209 silent |
| E210 2025-01-11 | decay | -1.3 | 31.2 | E210 silent |
| E211 2025-01-18 | decay | -1.2 | 29.9 | E211 silent |
| E212 2025-01-25 | decay | -1.2 | 28.7 | E212 silent |
| E213 2025-01-31 | decay | -1.1 | 27.6 | E213 silent |
| E214 2025-02-07 | decay | -1.1 | 26.5 | E214 silent |
| E215 2025-02-15 | decay | -1.1 | 25.4 | E215 silent |
| E216 2025-02-21 | decay | -1.0 | 24.4 | E216 silent |
| E217 2025-03-01 | decay | -1.0 | 23.4 | E217 silent |
| E218 2025-03-08 | reinforce | +11.5 | 34.9 | E218 Joe Lonsdale support x2 |
| E219 2025-03-15 | decay | -1.4 | 33.5 | E219 silent |
| E220 2025-03-22 | decay | -1.3 | 32.2 | E220 silent |
| E221 2025-03-29 | decay | -1.3 | 30.9 | E221 silent |
| E222 2025-04-05 | decay | -1.2 | 29.6 | E222 silent |
| E223 2025-04-11 | decay | -1.2 | 28.5 | E223 silent |