← pool · child of A second Trump term reflates growth via deregulation and lower corporate tax
📈 Deregulation re-rates the regulated old economy, not tech
Chamath's correction to the pro-growth trade: tech is already lightly regulated, so a deregulatory second Trump term does almost nothing for it. The re-rating accrues to the heavily regulated non-tech swath of the market — pharma, ag, real estate — which catches up to tech's forward earnings multiple.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 29.3 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▲ LONG XLV
expression · bullish equities
PARTIAL
outcome · R +8.9% · α -6.8%
2025-11-16
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2024-11-16 → 2025-11-16 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG XLV (primary play). XLV rose 8.9% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +8.9% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +15.6% → α = +8.9 − (+15.6) = -6.8% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5▶ PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0· MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a PARTIAL earn 0.5 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath | proxy-sensitive: XLRE→MISS (-2.3%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2024-11-16)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | XLV | etf | PRIMARY | pharma/healthcare is the first sector he names as a deregulation beneficiary |
| ▲ LONG | MOO | etf | adjacent | ag/agribusiness named explicitly |
| ▲ LONG | XLF | etf | adjacent | financials are the other heavily regulated non-tech block already re-rating |
| ▲ LONG | XLRE | etf | adjacent | real estate named explicitly |
Mention log
Chamath
equities w=0.84 · n=160
· E204 (2024-11-16) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 27:57
SUPPORT
“It's a very narrow part of the economy. If you look on a broad-based basis, the tens and tens of trillions of dollars of market cap that exist, I do agree with you that deregulation benefits a bunch of those companies, but it benefits the non-tech businesses more than the tech businesses. The tech businesses right now are relatively lightly regulated.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -24.8 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E204 2024-11-16 | init | +29.3 | 29.3 | E204 born by Chamath (explicit_prediction x2) [w=0.84] |
| E205 2024-11-23 | decay | -1.2 | 28.1 | E205 silent |
| E206 2024-12-07 | decay | -1.1 | 27.0 | E206 silent |
| E207 2024-12-13 | decay | -1.1 | 25.9 | E207 silent |
| E208 2024-12-20 | decay | -1.0 | 24.9 | E208 silent |
| E209 2025-01-04 | decay | -1.0 | 23.9 | E209 silent |
| E210 2025-01-11 | decay | -1.0 | 22.9 | E210 silent |
| E211 2025-01-18 | decay | -0.9 | 22.0 | E211 silent |
| E212 2025-01-25 | decay | -0.9 | 21.1 | E212 silent |
| E213 2025-01-31 | decay | -0.8 | 20.3 | E213 silent |
| E214 2025-02-07 | decay | -0.8 | 19.5 | E214 silent |
| E215 2025-02-15 | decay | -0.8 | 18.7 | E215 silent |
| E216 2025-02-21 | decay | -0.7 | 18.0 | E216 silent |
| E217 2025-03-01 | decay | -0.7 | 17.2 | E217 silent |
| E218 2025-03-08 | decay | -0.7 | 16.6 | E218 silent |
| E219 2025-03-15 | decay | -0.7 | 15.9 | E219 silent |
| E220 2025-03-22 | decay | -0.6 | 15.3 | E220 silent |
| E221 2025-03-29 | decay | -0.6 | 14.6 | E221 silent |
| E222 2025-04-05 | decay | -0.6 | 14.1 | E222 silent |
| E223 2025-04-11 | decay | -0.6 | 13.5 | E223 silent |
| E224 2025-04-19 | decay | -0.5 | 13.0 | E224 silent |
| E225 2025-04-26 | decay | -0.5 | 12.4 | E225 silent |
| E226 2025-05-02 | decay | -0.5 | 11.9 | E226 silent |
| E227 2025-05-09 | decay | -0.5 | 11.5 | E227 silent |
| E228 2025-05-17 | decay | -0.5 | 11.0 | E228 silent |
| E229 2025-05-24 | decay | -0.4 | 10.6 | E229 silent |
| E231 2025-06-13 | decay | -0.4 | 10.1 | E231 silent |
| E232 2025-06-21 | decay | -0.4 | 9.7 | E232 silent |
| E233 2025-06-28 | decay | -0.4 | 9.3 | E233 silent |
| E234 2025-07-04 | decay | -0.4 | 9.0 | E234 silent |
| E235 2025-07-11 | decay | -0.4 | 8.6 | E235 silent |
| E236 2025-07-19 | decay | -0.3 | 8.3 | E236 silent |
| E237 2025-08-01 | decay | -0.3 | 7.9 | E237 silent |
| E238 2025-08-09 | decay | -0.3 | 7.6 | E238 silent |
| E239 2025-08-15 | decay | -0.3 | 7.3 | E239 silent |
| E240 2025-08-22 | decay | -0.3 | 7.0 | E240 silent |
| E241 2025-08-29 | decay | -0.3 | 6.7 | E241 silent |
| E242 2025-09-07 | decay | -0.3 | 6.5 | E242 silent |
| E243 2025-09-19 | decay | -0.3 | 6.2 | E243 silent |
| E244 2025-09-27 | decay | -0.2 | 6.0 | E244 silent |
| E245 2025-10-03 | decay | -0.2 | 5.7 | E245 silent |
| E246 2025-10-10 | decay | -0.2 | 5.5 | E246 silent |
| E247 2025-10-17 | decay | -0.2 | 5.3 | E247 silent |
| E248 2025-10-24 | decay | -0.2 | 5.1 | E248 silent |
| E249 2025-10-31 | decay | -0.2 | 4.9 | E249 silent |
| E250 2025-11-07 | decay | -0.2 | 4.7 | E250 silent |
| E251 2025-11-14 | decay | -0.2 | 4.5 | E251 silent |