← pool · child of A second Trump term reflates growth via deregulation and lower corporate tax
📈 Deregulation re-rates the regulated old economy, not tech
Chamath's correction to the pro-growth trade: tech is already lightly regulated, so a deregulatory second Trump term does almost nothing for it. The re-rating accrues to the heavily regulated non-tech swath of the market — pharma, ag, real estate — which catches up to tech's forward earnings multiple.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 35.0 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▲ LONG XLV
expression · bullish equities
HALF
result · return +8.9% · vs SPY -6.8%
2025-11-16
born 2024-11-16 (E204) → window closed
⚠ CONFLICTING IDEA ON THE SAME TICKER
— the board is arguing with itself; net it out (ticker view →)
XLF ·
Rate spike impairs bank equity: the October 30 call reports land as a shock
SHORT
EMBER 34.2
← stronger than this idea (5.4)
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2024-11-16 → 2025-11-16 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG XLV (primary play). XLV rose 8.9% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = +8.9% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +15.6% → vs SPY = +8.9 − (+15.6) = -6.8% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
- Rule fired:
· RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+▶ HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all· WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a HALF earn 0.5 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath | proxy-sensitive: XLRE→MISS (-2.3%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2024-11-16)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | XLV | etf | PRIMARY | pharma/healthcare is the first sector he names as a deregulation beneficiary |
| ▲ LONG | MOO | etf | adjacent | ag/agribusiness named explicitly |
| ▲ LONG | XLF | etf | adjacent | financials are the other heavily regulated non-tech block already re-rating |
| ▲ LONG | XLRE | etf | adjacent | real estate named explicitly |
Mention log newest first
Chamath
equities 42% · n=163
· E204 (2024-11-16) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 27:57
SUPPORT
“It's a very narrow part of the economy. If you look on a broad-based basis, the tens and tens of trillions of dollars of market cap that exist, I do agree with you that deregulation benefits a bunch of those companies, but it benefits the non-tech businesses more than the tech businesses. The tech businesses right now are relatively lightly regulated.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -29.6 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E204 2024-11-16 | init | +35.0 | 35.0 | E204 born by Chamath (explicit_prediction x2) |
| E205 2024-11-23 | decay | -1.4 | 33.6 | E205 silent |
| E206 2024-12-07 | decay | -1.3 | 32.3 | E206 silent |
| E207 2024-12-13 | decay | -1.3 | 31.0 | E207 silent |
| E208 2024-12-20 | decay | -1.2 | 29.7 | E208 silent |
| E209 2025-01-04 | decay | -1.2 | 28.5 | E209 silent |
| E210 2025-01-11 | decay | -1.1 | 27.4 | E210 silent |
| E211 2025-01-18 | decay | -1.1 | 26.3 | E211 silent |
| E212 2025-01-25 | decay | -1.1 | 25.2 | E212 silent |
| E213 2025-01-31 | decay | -1.0 | 24.2 | E213 silent |
| E214 2025-02-07 | decay | -1.0 | 23.3 | E214 silent |
| E215 2025-02-15 | decay | -0.9 | 22.3 | E215 silent |
| E216 2025-02-21 | decay | -0.9 | 21.4 | E216 silent |
| E217 2025-03-01 | decay | -0.9 | 20.6 | E217 silent |
| E218 2025-03-08 | decay | -0.8 | 19.8 | E218 silent |
| E219 2025-03-15 | decay | -0.8 | 19.0 | E219 silent |
| E220 2025-03-22 | decay | -0.8 | 18.2 | E220 silent |
| E221 2025-03-29 | decay | -0.7 | 17.5 | E221 silent |
| E222 2025-04-05 | decay | -0.7 | 16.8 | E222 silent |
| E223 2025-04-11 | decay | -0.7 | 16.1 | E223 silent |
| E224 2025-04-19 | decay | -0.6 | 15.5 | E224 silent |
| E225 2025-04-26 | decay | -0.6 | 14.9 | E225 silent |
| E226 2025-05-02 | decay | -0.6 | 14.3 | E226 silent |
| E227 2025-05-09 | decay | -0.6 | 13.7 | E227 silent |
| E228 2025-05-17 | decay | -0.5 | 13.1 | E228 silent |
| E229 2025-05-24 | decay | -0.5 | 12.6 | E229 silent |
| E231 2025-06-13 | decay | -0.5 | 12.1 | E231 silent |
| E232 2025-06-21 | decay | -0.5 | 11.6 | E232 silent |
| E233 2025-06-28 | decay | -0.5 | 11.2 | E233 silent |
| E234 2025-07-04 | decay | -0.4 | 10.7 | E234 silent |
| E235 2025-07-11 | decay | -0.4 | 10.3 | E235 silent |
| E236 2025-07-19 | decay | -0.4 | 9.9 | E236 silent |
| E237 2025-08-01 | decay | -0.4 | 9.5 | E237 silent |
| E238 2025-08-09 | decay | -0.4 | 9.1 | E238 silent |
| E239 2025-08-15 | decay | -0.4 | 8.7 | E239 silent |
| E240 2025-08-22 | decay | -0.3 | 8.4 | E240 silent |
| E241 2025-08-29 | decay | -0.3 | 8.1 | E241 silent |
| E242 2025-09-07 | decay | -0.3 | 7.7 | E242 silent |
| E243 2025-09-19 | decay | -0.3 | 7.4 | E243 silent |
| E244 2025-09-27 | decay | -0.3 | 7.1 | E244 silent |
| E245 2025-10-03 | decay | -0.3 | 6.8 | E245 silent |
| E246 2025-10-10 | decay | -0.3 | 6.6 | E246 silent |
| E247 2025-10-17 | decay | -0.3 | 6.3 | E247 silent |
| E248 2025-10-24 | decay | -0.3 | 6.0 | E248 silent |
| E249 2025-10-31 | decay | -0.2 | 5.8 | E249 silent |
| E250 2025-11-07 | decay | -0.2 | 5.6 | E250 silent |
| E251 2025-11-14 | decay | -0.2 | 5.4 | E251 silent |