🏛️ Local taxation cracks the big-tech monopolies
The offshore-IP structure (Apple/Google in Ireland) is the monopolies' soft underbelly: France, the UK, individual US states and Yellen's global-minimum-tax push are abandoning the global tax treaties, and taxing where consumption occurs is the first real mechanism that chips away at big-tech economics.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 35.0 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▼ SHORT AAPL
expression · bearish politics-market
WRONG
result · return -8.9% · vs SPY -3.0%
2022-05-22
born 2021-05-22 (E33) → window closed
⚠ CONFLICTING IDEAS ON THE SAME TICKER
— the board is arguing with itself; net it out (ticker view →)
GOOGL ·
Anthropic IPO (~Oct 2026) is attractively priced at $1.5-2T
LONG
WATCH 61.3
← stronger than this idea (5.6)
META ·
Meta becomes America's open-source AI champion
LONG
WATCH 55.4
← stronger than this idea (5.6)
META ·
Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice
LONG
WATCH 49.3
← stronger than this idea (5.6)
GOOGL ·
Own AWS, Azure and GCP and nothing else — the clouds capture the AI application dollars
LONG
WATCH 47.9
← stronger than this idea (5.6)
GOOGL ·
Frontier AI labs keep durable premium pricing (not commoditized)
LONG
EMBER 37.7
← stronger than this idea (5.6)
META ·
The AI doomer campaign fails — no FDAI, open source survives
LONG
EMBER 30.5
← stronger than this idea (5.6)
GOOGL ·
Personal AI agents: Google's data moat wins the form factor
LONG
EMBER 22.9
← stronger than this idea (5.6)
GOOGL ·
Independent frontier-model labs lose to hyperscaler capital
LONG
EMBER 18.3
← stronger than this idea (5.6)
META ·
Independent frontier-model labs lose to hyperscaler capital
LONG
EMBER 18.3
← stronger than this idea (5.6)
GOOGL ·
Willow's error-correction scaling puts encryption on a two-to-five-year clock
LONG
DORMANT 8.5
← stronger than this idea (5.6)
META ·
Meta's AI assistant takes ten points of search share from Google
LONG
DORMANT 6.4
← stronger than this idea (5.6)
other ideas on the same ticker, same direction: Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice 49 (AAPL) · ChatGPT takes Google search share and the market starts pricing the decay 21 (GOOGL) · ChatGPT takes Google search share and the market starts pricing the decay 21 (AAPL) · Tort floodgates open on social media 20 (GOOGL) · Tort floodgates open on social media 20 (META) · Blue cities ban or license-cap robotaxis 20 (GOOGL) · Meta's AI assistant takes ten points of search share from Google 6 (GOOGL) · Narrow Section 230 carve-out unleashes a tort wave on social platforms 3 (META)
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-05-22 → 2022-05-22 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT AAPL (primary play). AAPL rose 8.9% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = -8.9% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned -5.8%
→ vs SPY = -8.9 − (-5.8) = -3.0%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
Direction-only read: -14.7% — did AAPL move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call beat the index outright.
- Rule fired:
· RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+· HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all▶ WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a WRONG earn 0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath | proxy-sensitive: GOOGL→PARTIAL (+7.7%); META→HIT (+40.4%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-05-22)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | AAPL | stock | PRIMARY | the named offender — Irish IP subsidiary, the episode's central example |
| ▼ SHORT | GOOGL | stock | adjacent | same offshore-IP structure, named in the segment |
| ▼ SHORT | META | stock | adjacent | Chamath's first-hand receipt: the IRS sued Facebook over exactly this IP transfer |
Mention log newest first
Chamath
politics-market 51% · n=95
· E33 (2021-05-22) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 42:41
SUPPORT
“But that's the thing that's going to really start the undoing of the big monopolies. Because if you start to abandon these global tax treaties and you're starting to see it, France is trying to do some stuff, the UK is trying to do some stuff, states individually in the United States are trying to sue these companies or tax them more. That's the first way to chip away at these monopolies”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -29.4 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E33 2021-05-22 | init | +35.0 | 35.0 | E33 born by Chamath (explicit_prediction x2) |
| E34 2021-05-31 | decay | -1.4 | 33.6 | E34 silent |
| E35 2021-06-13 | decay | -1.3 | 32.3 | E35 silent |
| E36 2021-06-18 | decay | -1.3 | 31.0 | E36 silent |
| E37 2021-06-25 | decay | -1.2 | 29.7 | E37 silent |
| E38 2021-07-03 | decay | -1.2 | 28.5 | E38 silent |
| E39 2021-07-09 | decay | -1.1 | 27.4 | E39 silent |
| E40 2021-07-16 | decay | -1.1 | 26.3 | E40 silent |
| E41 2021-07-23 | decay | -1.1 | 25.2 | E41 silent |
| E42 2021-07-30 | decay | -1.0 | 24.2 | E42 silent |
| E43 2021-08-06 | decay | -1.0 | 23.3 | E43 silent |
| E44 2021-08-28 | decay | -0.9 | 22.3 | E44 silent |
| E45 2021-09-04 | decay | -0.9 | 21.4 | E45 silent |
| E46 2021-09-14 | decay | -0.9 | 20.6 | E46 silent |
| E47 2021-09-18 | decay | -0.8 | 19.8 | E47 silent |
| E49 2021-10-02 | decay | -0.8 | 19.0 | E49 silent |
| E50 2021-10-09 | decay | -0.8 | 18.2 | E50 silent |
| E51 2021-10-16 | decay | -0.7 | 17.5 | E51 silent |
| E52 2021-10-23 | decay | -0.7 | 16.8 | E52 silent |
| E53 2021-10-30 | decay | -0.7 | 16.1 | E53 silent |
| E54 2021-11-06 | decay | -0.6 | 15.5 | E54 silent |
| E55 2021-11-13 | decay | -0.6 | 14.9 | E55 silent |
| E56 2021-11-20 | decay | -0.6 | 14.3 | E56 silent |
| E57 2021-12-04 | decay | -0.6 | 13.7 | E57 silent |
| E58 2021-12-11 | decay | -0.5 | 13.1 | E58 silent |
| E59 2021-12-17 | decay | -0.5 | 12.6 | E59 silent |
| E60 2021-12-23 | decay | -0.5 | 12.1 | E60 silent |
| E61 2021-12-29 | decay | -0.5 | 11.6 | E61 silent |
| E62 2022-01-08 | decay | -0.5 | 11.2 | E62 silent |
| E63 2022-01-15 | decay | -0.4 | 10.7 | E63 silent |
| E64 2022-01-22 | decay | -0.4 | 10.3 | E64 silent |
| E65 2022-01-29 | decay | -0.4 | 9.9 | E65 silent |
| E66 2022-02-05 | decay | -0.4 | 9.5 | E66 silent |
| E67 2022-02-12 | decay | -0.4 | 9.1 | E67 silent |
| E68 2022-02-19 | decay | -0.4 | 8.7 | E68 silent |
| E70 2022-02-24 | decay | -0.3 | 8.4 | E70 silent |
| E71 2022-03-05 | decay | -0.3 | 8.1 | E71 silent |
| E72 2022-03-19 | decay | -0.3 | 7.7 | E72 silent |
| E73 2022-03-26 | decay | -0.3 | 7.4 | E73 silent |
| E74 2022-04-01 | decay | -0.3 | 7.1 | E74 silent |
| E75 2022-04-09 | decay | -0.3 | 6.8 | E75 silent |
| E76 2022-04-16 | decay | -0.3 | 6.6 | E76 silent |
| E77 2022-04-23 | decay | -0.3 | 6.3 | E77 silent |
| E78 2022-04-30 | decay | -0.3 | 6.0 | E78 silent |
| E79 2022-05-07 | decay | -0.2 | 5.8 | E79 silent |
| E80 2022-05-13 | decay | -0.2 | 5.6 | E80 silent |