+0.0
net board stance
what this means
49.18
+2.4% · close 2026-09-08
-7% / -20% / +14%
1m / 3m / 12m
+6%
vs SPY since 2024-11-08
23%
of 52w range · -33.5% off high
1/3
hit rate as primary · α +1
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Where the winds are blowing
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Track record on TAN
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 1 hit / 0 partial / 2 miss over 3 closed windows — credit 0.33, average α +0.7. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏛️ Infrastructure-bill tax credits make the captured solar incumbents rip | ▲ LONG | adjacent | MISS | -13.7% | -3.8 | 2022-09-14 |
| ⚡ Solar wins alternative energy — nuclear and wind lose | ▲ LONG | primary | MISS | -14.8% | -4.1 | 2022-06-13 |
| ⚡ 100 million homes become mini-utilities and strand incumbent utility debt | ▲ LONG | primary | MISS | -26.4% | -36.1 | 2025-04-26 |
| ⚡ Energy-transition capital flows under a national-security frame, not a climate frame | ▲ LONG | adjacent | MISS | -34.0% | -63.5 | 2024-08-25 |
| ⚡ Household energy resilience — every home becomes its own virtual power plant | ▲ LONG | adjacent | MISS | -57.1% | -75.9 | 2023-09-23 |
| ⚡ IRA energy tax credits survive repeal because AI needs the electrons | ▲ LONG | primary | HIT | +63.7% | +42.3 | 2026-03-08 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding TAN, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
PH
Phil Deutch
oppose ×2
▲ on
⚡ IRA energy tax credits survive repeal because AI needs the electrons
E238 · 2025-08-09
▶ 58:24
And so the point of this chart is if we really need all we could eat on energy for artificial intelligence, and if artificial intelligence, the race is the, you know, race for national security and dominance in the world. This is saying we're taking a step backwards on this supply.
it's cheaper to put in a solar and battery farm than a new coal plant. It is 100%.
These methane plants are half the cost of solar. They can get stood up in less than two years to generate a gigawatt.
we are sort of back to basics almost in a sense where in the absence of power, I think AI is not going to be the thing that we think it can be. So that's going to create an enormous amount of appetite by the federal government to do deals and get players on the field. And that's to me very exciting. So, yeah, I came away really, really risk on, I guess is the best way to say it.
So, I don't know, my perspective is get rid of all the subsidies at this point, create a clean slate, but don't do anything to hinder the production of electricity, because we need literally as much of it as we can get our hands on.
Now, I will say, from my point of view, I'm not a huge fan of being dependent on government subsidized energy at all. So if the government is having to play a role in funding stuff, there's something really questionable in terms of our sustainability on that energy production source.
You take the financial incentive away and you can't underwrite this thing. What are they going to do? They're just going to stop doing it. So in the absence of electrons, what happens? Prices go up, it's inflationary, and now you'll have to allocate electrons.
Inside the IRA, I think that there were two things, and I've said this pretty repeatedly, but I just want to put it on the record again. The ITC credits and the ITC transfer markets for those credits, the tax equity markets, are critical industries in America to support private investment in all kinds of very complicated markets, energy markets being the most important.
But the other part of the IRA, this narrow part is what it did to reinforce tax incentives and tax equity, which is a $200 billion market that incentivizes that 90% of energy generation. So my point is that when you start to get into the details, when the house, ways and means community has to figure out what part to put back, this is going to be hard because it's like, hold on, if you got the whole thing, now all of a sudden you take 90% of the incremental energy generation incentives out of the market, you don't have enough electrons.
There's storage that's coming online very aggressively. The solar capability itself is ramping up aggressively. We're also forcing these utilities to actually be deconstructed so that there's more efficiency in the energy markets.
And we have to have this ability to more rapidly kind of accelerate high power output systems like nuclear. Because while solar is great, it's a low power output. You need much more volume.
You don't think that distributed energy can basically deliver effectively energy at a marginal cost of zero?
I think that climate change stalled when it was an emotional and philosophical rallying cry, largely of the left. When instead it became something about resilience and domestic manufacturing, both sides came together.
Solar is just getting so cheap. Batteries are getting so cheap, putting batteries in your home, putting solar in
All the regulations are going to get opened up to put batteries and solar everywhere.
the biggest investment I've made is in a company called Palmetto. They are close to now the largest residential solar business in the United States ... So I've always thought a ginormous directional bet to make would be to go along the disruptor. The person that helps arm the rebels in this case would be the person that arms 100 million homes. And then eventually at some point just short the debt of these utilities because they won't be able to service them.
So ask me, how much money have I invested in climate change with all that data? Zero... Ask me how much money I've invested in technology, that will benefit climate change as a by-product of national security, hundreds of millions of dollars.
Technology is there. I mean, people are getting generators for natural gases backups. We're going to have to figure out how to take the load off the grid and build resiliency into it.
At the end of the day, there are tens of utilities in America, but there are 100 million households. And the only path to energy independence is to get every single 100 million household to be resilient, which means they need their own solar panels. They need battery storage. They need their own potable water.
The great thing about the IRA and what Chuck Schumer did is actually will be written in 10 or 15 years from now, because when we get to energy independence, when every home is resilient, the national security calculus in America changes wholeheartedly overnight.
And the vast majority of the bill, like you said, are subsidies for clean energy, which are basically handouts to special interests in the donor class and the Democratic Party.
in times of uncertainty, you actually want to be deploying. So, you know, I announced what was it last week? I think it was a solar deal. The solar deal. You know, I put $228 million into this thing.
Just to give you one counterpoint to your statement about energy independence arising potentially from solar, to generate a gigawatt of capacity and industrial scale solar farm would take about 7,500 acres. ... So the actual amortized cost over the lifetime of that solar installation works out to something on the order of 15 cents a kilowatt hour. Whereas if you do it on an industrial scale, it works out to about 3 cents a kilowatt hour.
Long term, I think solar is the answer, but I think that's a long term strategy.
$2.5 trillion to put solar on every home. The end. Like, we're $30 trillion in debt. 10% of our debt would make us energy independent forever. The plan gets better when you do math.