+0.0
net board stance
what this means
3.12
-0.9% · close 2026-09-08
-10% / -28% / -48%
1m / 3m / 12m
-134%
vs SPY since 2022-09-10
1%
of 52w range · -70.3% off high
1/2
hit rate as primary · α -32
Where we stand — 0 live ideas
No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
Track record on OPEN
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 1 hit / 0 partial / 1 miss over 2 closed windows — credit 0.5, average α -32.5. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📈 SPAC complex busts as the zero-rate synthetic-bond bid dies | ▼ SHORT | primary | HIT | +18.4% | +7.3 | 2021-06-06 |
| 📈 IPO 2.0: the Chamath SPAC complex | ▲ LONG | adjacent | HIT | +45.0% | +10.9 | 2021-09-09 |
| 📈 Opendoor wins instant home offers - software compounds | ▲ LONG | primary | MISS | -90.8% | -72.3 | 2022-11-06 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding OPEN, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
Jason
support ×2
▼ on
📈 NAR verdict breaks the 6% residential commission cartel
E171 · 2024-03-22
▶ 43:14
It should be that you get a flat rate, $10,000 at a million, and then you get 10% over a million or something.
Sacks
support ×3
▼ on
📈 NAR verdict breaks the 6% residential commission cartel
E171 · 2024-03-22
▶ 39:58
No buyer would ever voluntarily agree to pay this massive commission. It's not worth it. So it's game over for the realtors if buyers are forced to pay their own brokers commission.
Chamath
support ×1
▼ on
📈 NAR verdict breaks the 6% residential commission cartel
E171 · 2024-03-22
▶ 37:30
Is it going to change the profitability of a realtor? Pretty meaningfully, right?
Friedberg
support ×3
▼ on
📈 NAR verdict breaks the 6% residential commission cartel
E171 · 2024-03-22
▶ 34:05
I do project and I do expect that much of what is charged on a commission basis, on a percent of home value today, will change to being a fixed fee and a flat fee basis.
Jason
support ×2
▼ on
📈 NAR verdict breaks the 6% residential commission cartel
E158 · 2023-12-23
▶ 1:31:14
The settlement is likely to be that when you hire a broker, they will give you a form and you'll pick what percentage you want to pay. ... keep an eye on this one folks, because it's going to have a massive impact.
Sacks
support ×2
▼ on
📈 NAR verdict breaks the 6% residential commission cartel
E158 · 2023-12-23
▶ 1:25:51
Here's how you'll know that the monopoly has ended, is when the buy side commission goes away.
Friedberg
support ×3
▼ on
📈 NAR verdict breaks the 6% residential commission cartel
E158 · 2023-12-23
▶ 1:30:38
if the monopoly breaks on the marketplace, then the business model will get competed away, and there will start to be a change here. And I think that this lawsuit and the settlement ultimately leads to a shift in the industry that could certainly benefit consumers, but could have a negative economic impact because of the number of people that depend on brokerage fees as their job.
Jason
support ×1
▲ on
📈 Opendoor wins instant home offers - software compounds
E80 · 2022-05-13
▶ 58:12
like Open Door has 2.3 billion in cash and a 3.7 billion dollar market cap enterprise value 1.4.
Sacks
support ×2
▲ on
📈 Opendoor wins instant home offers - software compounds
E54 · 2021-11-06
▶ 44:36
I was a seed investor in Open Door because Ravoy invited me to the seed round, so I'm a little biased here, but I think it's pretty obvious what happened. ... Zillow tried to copy them. The business is much more operationally complicated than they realized. ... That's what frequently happens in a big company, tries to copy a smaller sort of upstart company.
Chamath
support ×3
▲ on
📈 Opendoor wins instant home offers - software compounds
E54 · 2021-11-06
▶ 40:24
Look, I am one of the largest individual shareholders of that company. I think somewhere between 3% and 4% of the business I own. ... I suspect we will look back and the ability to accurately forecast price and volatility and the ability to sell these assets at a defined margin of safety in a predictable way is something software can solve, and it seems that Open Door is the first. It doesn't necessarily mean it will be the only one, but it has an enormous head start now, and as long as they can keep iterating, those gains will compound. ... I just think this is a wonderful business run by an incredible CEO.
Doesn't it introduce the risk of the retail investor? We're seeing more retail participation via syndicates, via one-off investments, online marketplaces, and also SPACs, where the retail investor relies on Chamath ... is there not some inevitable kind of SEC backlash and consideration around how are private companies ultimately raising money and how much they are disclosing? We face this regulatory threat.
I am one of five groups that put up any money when we do a pipe in our deals. ... So, for example, like, you know, in SoFi, I think we put in $275 million.
The truth of the matter is Chamath is pioneering here. And I think it's been incredible to watch the competition in choice. And as Chamath knows, I participated in a couple of the deals that he's done.
it seems like there's also a deleveraging happening with the funds that bought a lot of these SPACs and DSPAC listings in the aftermarket, right? ... Which kind of creates a bit of a logjam on the back end for a lot of these.
Any random dog and cat was able to raise a SPAC in Q1. And now on the backend, you're going to start seeing some real difficulty. So deals are getting re-traded constantly, which means that IPOs that should have been done at price X is getting discounted by 20% and 30% to get the deal done.
Oh, so, so, you know, live by the SPAC, die by the SPAC. That's what they always say in this business.
Last year, $80 billion was raised in Spacks. This quarter, $100 billion in Spacks. And Spacks are that you cross over investing. It's taking, you know, growth stage, private equity style risk in the public markets with this proliferation of capital. And we're seeing the benefit in the early stage. ... And I think, you know, I think it's the next step up and we just keep seeing these step ups.
And this is where the SPAC makes a ton of sense, because you have a very certain cost of capital. You can now architect a cap table where the founder remains in control, where they and the employees are still more than 50 percent. And you pull in the time of the IPO. Why is that important? Typically today, these companies were taking 12 plus years to go public. Now with SPACs, they've come back in and they're closer to seven and eight years.
a lot of the folks on Twitter, you know, when you see the market straight down and they complain, my reaction is stop crying and do your own work
there's more speculative risk seeking in the public markets in a way that I don't think we've ever seen ... But it's going to be a lot of speculative betting and a lot of losses
Chamath
support ×3
▼ on
📈 SPAC complex busts as the zero-rate synthetic-bond bid dies
E24 · 2021-03-06
▶ 6:22
if you look at the companies that have just announced SPAC deals just in the last few days, their stocks have gotten absolutely obliterated and they're right on the knife's edge going into the redemption period. So if you have one or two more months of this where all of a sudden bonds look better and some of these SPACs post-announcement but pre-de-SPACing go through 10 bucks a share, people just redeem for $10 and you'll have a bunch of busted IPOs.
So in many ways, the SPAC market benefited from rates at zero because you could synthetically be long SPACs as almost the way of being synthetically long fixed income. ... Now as rates go up, that's not true.
we should have Friedberg tell the story of Metromile, but it closed its SPAC transaction and went public and it's doing great
IPOE is merging with SoFi. It's an incredible company led by an incredible CEO, Anthony Noto. [Friedberg: 'It doubled today. It's insane.']
We just announced three — D, E, and F... they're filed with the SEC now... [and IPOB = Opendoor] was announced on Tuesday.