📈 Point-of-care antigen testing scales — BD wins
Becton Dickinson's $250 handheld antigen-testing system with ~$20 five-minute test strips makes school/workplace screening viable at scale — protein detection is scientifically easier than RNA PCR, and the company 'will do well' on it.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 30.1 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▲ LONG BDX
expression · bullish equities
WRONG
result · return -1.6% · vs SPY -42.0%
2021-07-11
born 2020-07-11 (E5) → window closed
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2020-07-11 → 2021-07-11 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG BDX (primary play). BDX fell 1.6% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = -1.6% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +40.4% → vs SPY = -1.6 − (+40.4) = -42.0% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
- Rule fired:
· RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+· HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all▶ WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a WRONG earn 0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Friedberg, Sacks
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2020-07-11)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | BDX | stock | PRIMARY | the named maker of the point-of-care antigen system ('Vector Dickinson' = Becton Dickinson) |
Mention log newest first
Sacks
equities 44% · n=96
· E8 (2020-09-19) · sentiment · strength 1
▶ 43:04
SUPPORT
“There are startups like, was it Quidel, [Humedix], Q, who've got these little $200, $300 handheld readers and the cartridges are basically mouth swabs or lower nasal swabs, cost $10... assuming we can scale the production of them, I think they will be everywhere.”
Friedberg
equities 43% · n=123
· E5 (2020-07-11) · sentiment · strength 1
▶ 1:22:48
SUPPORT
“You can get this [Becton] Dickinson testing system now for 250 bucks. It's a handheld device. And these test strips cost 20 bucks... it takes five minutes to get a result... I think that company will do well with that testing system they've launched because it actually tests not for the RNA, but for the protein... the stock's done well.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -22.5 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E5 2020-07-11 | init | +16.0 | 16.0 | E5 born by Friedberg (sentiment x1) |
| E6 2020-07-31 | decay | -0.6 | 15.4 | E6 silent |
| E7 2020-09-09 | decay | -0.6 | 14.7 | E7 silent |
| E8 2020-09-19 | reinforce | +15.3 | 30.1 | E8 Sacks support x1 (new voice) |
| E9 2020-10-03 | decay | -1.2 | 28.9 | E9 silent |
| E10 2020-10-16 | decay | -1.2 | 27.7 | E10 silent |
| E11 2020-11-04 | decay | -1.1 | 26.6 | E11 silent |
| E12 2020-11-11 | decay | -1.1 | 25.6 | E12 silent |
| E14 2020-12-04 | decay | -1.0 | 24.5 | E14 silent |
| E15 2020-12-18 | decay | -1.0 | 23.6 | E15 silent |
| E16 2021-01-08 | decay | -0.9 | 22.6 | E16 silent |
| E17 2021-01-11 | decay | -0.9 | 21.7 | E17 silent |
| E18 2021-01-23 | decay | -0.9 | 20.8 | E18 silent |
| E19 2021-01-30 | decay | -0.8 | 20.0 | E19 silent |
| E20 2021-02-03 | decay | -0.8 | 19.2 | E20 silent |
| E21 2021-02-06 | decay | -0.8 | 18.4 | E21 silent |
| E22 2021-02-13 | decay | -0.7 | 17.7 | E22 silent |
| E23 2021-02-20 | decay | -0.7 | 17.0 | E23 silent |
| E24 2021-03-06 | decay | -0.7 | 16.3 | E24 silent |
| E25 2021-03-13 | decay | -0.7 | 15.7 | E25 silent |
| E26 2021-03-20 | decay | -0.6 | 15.0 | E26 silent |
| E27 2021-03-27 | decay | -0.6 | 14.4 | E27 silent |
| E28 2021-04-01 | decay | -0.6 | 13.9 | E28 silent |
| E29 2021-04-17 | decay | -0.6 | 13.3 | E29 silent |
| E30 2021-04-23 | decay | -0.5 | 12.8 | E30 silent |
| E31 2021-05-01 | decay | -0.5 | 12.3 | E31 silent |
| E32 2021-05-13 | decay | -0.5 | 11.8 | E32 silent |
| E33 2021-05-22 | decay | -0.5 | 11.3 | E33 silent |
| E34 2021-05-31 | decay | -0.5 | 10.8 | E34 silent |
| E35 2021-06-13 | decay | -0.4 | 10.4 | E35 silent |
| E36 2021-06-18 | decay | -0.4 | 10.0 | E36 silent |
| E37 2021-06-25 | decay | -0.4 | 9.6 | E37 silent |
| E38 2021-07-03 | decay | -0.4 | 9.2 | E38 silent |
| E39 2021-07-09 | decay | -0.4 | 8.8 | E39 silent |