📈 Point-of-care antigen testing scales — BD wins
Becton Dickinson's $250 handheld antigen-testing system with ~$20 five-minute test strips makes school/workplace screening viable at scale — protein detection is scientifically easier than RNA PCR, and the company 'will do well' on it.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 26.7 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▲ LONG BDX
expression · bullish equities
MISS
outcome · R -1.6% · α -42.0%
2021-07-11
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2020-07-11 → 2021-07-11 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG BDX (primary play). BDX fell 1.6% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -1.6% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +40.4% → α = -1.6 − (+40.4) = -42.0% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Friedberg, Sacks
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2020-07-11)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | BDX | stock | PRIMARY | the named maker of the point-of-care antigen system ('Vector Dickinson' = Becton Dickinson) |
Mention log
Friedberg
equities w=0.87 · n=120
· E5 (2020-07-11) · sentiment · strength 1
▶ 1:22:48
SUPPORT
“You can get this [Becton] Dickinson testing system now for 250 bucks. It's a handheld device. And these test strips cost 20 bucks... it takes five minutes to get a result... I think that company will do well with that testing system they've launched because it actually tests not for the RNA, but for the protein... the stock's done well.”
Sacks
equities w=0.89 · n=96
· E8 (2020-09-19) · sentiment · strength 1
▶ 43:04
SUPPORT
“There are startups like, was it Quidel, [Humedix], Q, who've got these little $200, $300 handheld readers and the cartridges are basically mouth swabs or lower nasal swabs, cost $10... assuming we can scale the production of them, I think they will be everywhere.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -19.9 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E5 2020-07-11 | init | +13.9 | 13.9 | E5 born by Friedberg (sentiment x1) [w=0.87] |
| E6 2020-07-31 | decay | -0.6 | 13.3 | E6 silent |
| E7 2020-09-09 | decay | -0.5 | 12.8 | E7 silent |
| E8 2020-09-19 | reinforce | +13.9 | 26.7 | E8 Sacks support x1 (new voice) [w=0.89] |
| E9 2020-10-03 | decay | -1.1 | 25.6 | E9 silent |
| E10 2020-10-16 | decay | -1.0 | 24.6 | E10 silent |
| E11 2020-11-04 | decay | -1.0 | 23.6 | E11 silent |
| E12 2020-11-11 | decay | -0.9 | 22.7 | E12 silent |
| E14 2020-12-04 | decay | -0.9 | 21.8 | E14 silent |
| E15 2020-12-18 | decay | -0.9 | 20.9 | E15 silent |
| E16 2021-01-08 | decay | -0.8 | 20.0 | E16 silent |
| E17 2021-01-11 | decay | -0.8 | 19.2 | E17 silent |
| E18 2021-01-23 | decay | -0.8 | 18.5 | E18 silent |
| E19 2021-01-30 | decay | -0.7 | 17.7 | E19 silent |
| E20 2021-02-03 | decay | -0.7 | 17.0 | E20 silent |
| E21 2021-02-06 | decay | -0.7 | 16.3 | E21 silent |
| E22 2021-02-13 | decay | -0.7 | 15.7 | E22 silent |
| E23 2021-02-20 | decay | -0.6 | 15.1 | E23 silent |
| E24 2021-03-06 | decay | -0.6 | 14.5 | E24 silent |
| E25 2021-03-13 | decay | -0.6 | 13.9 | E25 silent |
| E26 2021-03-20 | decay | -0.6 | 13.3 | E26 silent |
| E27 2021-03-27 | decay | -0.5 | 12.8 | E27 silent |
| E28 2021-04-01 | decay | -0.5 | 12.3 | E28 silent |
| E29 2021-04-17 | decay | -0.5 | 11.8 | E29 silent |
| E30 2021-04-23 | decay | -0.5 | 11.3 | E30 silent |
| E31 2021-05-01 | decay | -0.5 | 10.9 | E31 silent |
| E32 2021-05-13 | decay | -0.4 | 10.4 | E32 silent |
| E33 2021-05-22 | decay | -0.4 | 10.0 | E33 silent |
| E34 2021-05-31 | decay | -0.4 | 9.6 | E34 silent |
| E35 2021-06-13 | decay | -0.4 | 9.2 | E35 silent |
| E36 2021-06-18 | decay | -0.4 | 8.9 | E36 silent |
| E37 2021-06-25 | decay | -0.4 | 8.5 | E37 silent |
| E38 2021-07-03 | decay | -0.3 | 8.2 | E38 silent |
| E39 2021-07-09 | decay | -0.3 | 7.8 | E39 silent |