🏛️ Patriot Act 2.0 - the foreign-adversary app law becomes a divestiture weapon against domestic platforms
Sacks' read after reading the bill four times: the operative language is not 'ByteDance' but 'subject to the direction or control of a foreign person', which is vague enough that an attorney general can open an investigation against any US app or website whose owner is publicly accused of foreign influence - Trump's Truth Social via the Russian-asset accusation, Rumble via the same, or Elon's companies via the Shanghai Tesla plant. Because the remedy is forced divestiture or a ban, the harassment value does not depend on the government ever winning in court, so politically exposed US-listed platforms inherit a new executive-branch overhang. Chamath takes the other side: the bill is reactive ('you out of the sandbox') rather than the Patriot Act's proactive probing power, and the 50-0 committee vote implies the intelligence agencies read Congress in on something real.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 40.6 EMBER
DORMANT
band · contested
▼ SHORT RUM
expression · bearish politics-market
MISS
outcome · R -4.0% · α -15.5%
2025-03-15
window closed
⚠ CONFLICTING IDEA ON THE SAME TICKER
— the board is arguing with itself; net it before trading (ticker view →)
also touching these tickers, same direction: Blue cities ban or license-cap robotaxis 28 (TSLA)
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2024-03-15 → 2025-03-15 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT RUM (primary play). RUM rose 4.0% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -4.0% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +11.5%
→ α = -4.0 − (+11.5) = -15.5%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
Stock-selection read: +7.5% — did RUM move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Sacks | opposed: Jason | proxy-sensitive: DJT→HIT (+48.2%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2024-03-15)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | RUM | stock | PRIMARY | Sacks names Rumble specifically as already accused of being a Russian agent and therefore exposed to the 'subject to the direction of' test |
| ▼ SHORT | DJT | stock | adjacent | Sacks' worked example is an AG investigating Truth Social on the theory Trump is under Putin's direction |
| ▼ SHORT | TSLA | stock | adjacent | Sacks' other worked example - the Shanghai factory as the leverage that makes Elon 'subject to the direction of' the CCP |
Mention log
Sacks
politics-market w=0.97 · n=88
· E170 (2024-03-15) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 47:29
SUPPORT
“So it gives huge, I think, new powers to the executive branch to pursue political opponents and political enemies, whether they actually win in a court of law down the road is kind of secondary because they can vex and harass their political enemies using this power.”
Chamath
politics-market w=1.02 · n=96
· E170 (2024-03-15) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 1:17:15
OPPOSE
“I don't think this is the Patriot Act, because the Patriot Act was like, I'm going to have now a broad license to probe anything I want. This is about saying this thing that is here can no longer be here.”
Sacks
politics-market w=0.97 · n=88
· E176 (2024-04-26) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 1:14:51
SUPPORT
“what we've authorized here is not a TikTok ban. It is a sweeping new federal power to ban foreign adversary controlled applications. ... And I guarantee you, I think here's where this goes next. I think Telegram is next on the hit list.”
Chamath
politics-market w=1.02 · n=96
· E176 (2024-04-26) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 1:24:49
SUPPORT
“And I think that if they go after it, I think it's because this underlying encryption model is something that we can't get access to. And so they'd rather just eliminate it to Sacks' point.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -30.4 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E170 2024-03-15 | init | +40.6 | 40.6 | E170 born by Sacks (explicit_prediction x3) [w=0.97] |
| E170 2024-03-15 | oppose | -9.6 | 31.0 | E170 Jason opposes x1 |
| E170 2024-03-15 | oppose | -12.2 | 18.7 | E170 Chamath opposes x2 [w=1.02] |
| E171 2024-03-22 | decay | -0.7 | 18.0 | E171 silent |
| E172 2024-03-29 | decay | -0.7 | 17.3 | E172 silent |
| E173 2024-04-05 | decay | -0.7 | 16.6 | E173 silent |
| E174 2024-04-12 | decay | -0.7 | 15.9 | E174 silent |
| E175 2024-04-19 | decay | -0.6 | 15.3 | E175 silent |
| E176 2024-04-26 | reinforce | +14.7 | 30.0 | E176 Sacks support x3 [w=0.97] |
| E176 2024-04-26 | oppose | -9.6 | 20.4 | E176 Jason opposes x1 |
| E176 2024-04-26 | reinforce | +12.2 | 32.6 | E176 Chamath support x2 (flipped from oppose) [w=1.02] |
| E177 2024-05-03 | decay | -1.3 | 31.3 | E177 silent |
| E178 2024-05-10 | decay | -1.3 | 30.0 | E178 silent |
| E179 2024-05-17 | decay | -1.2 | 28.8 | E179 silent |
| E180 2024-05-24 | decay | -1.2 | 27.7 | E180 silent |
| E181 2024-05-31 | decay | -1.1 | 26.6 | E181 silent |
| E182 2024-06-07 | decay | -1.1 | 25.5 | E182 silent |
| E183 2024-06-14 | decay | -1.0 | 24.5 | E183 silent |
| E184 2024-06-20 | decay | -1.0 | 23.5 | E184 silent |
| E185 2024-06-29 | decay | -0.9 | 22.6 | E185 silent |
| E186 2024-07-04 | decay | -0.9 | 21.7 | E186 silent |
| E187 2024-07-12 | decay | -0.9 | 20.8 | E187 silent |
| E188 2024-07-19 | decay | -0.8 | 20.0 | E188 silent |
| E189 2024-07-26 | decay | -0.8 | 19.2 | E189 silent |
| E190 2024-08-02 | decay | -0.8 | 18.4 | E190 silent |
| E191 2024-08-09 | decay | -0.7 | 17.7 | E191 silent |
| E192 2024-08-16 | decay | -0.7 | 17.0 | E192 silent |
| E193 2024-08-23 | decay | -0.7 | 16.3 | E193 silent |
| E194 2024-08-30 | decay | -0.7 | 15.6 | E194 silent |
| E195 2024-09-06 | decay | -0.6 | 15.0 | E195 silent |
| E196 2024-09-20 | decay | -0.6 | 14.4 | E196 silent |
| E197 2024-09-27 | decay | -0.6 | 13.8 | E197 silent |
| E198 2024-10-03 | decay | -0.6 | 13.3 | E198 silent |
| E199 2024-10-11 | decay | -0.5 | 12.7 | E199 silent |
| E200 2024-10-18 | decay | -0.5 | 12.2 | E200 silent |
| E201 2024-10-25 | decay | -0.5 | 11.7 | E201 silent |
| E202 2024-11-01 | decay | -0.5 | 11.3 | E202 silent |
| E203 2024-11-08 | decay | -0.5 | 10.8 | E203 silent |
| E204 2024-11-16 | decay | -0.4 | 10.4 | E204 silent |
| E205 2024-11-23 | decay | -0.4 | 10.0 | E205 silent |
| E206 2024-12-07 | decay | -0.4 | 9.6 | E206 silent |
| E207 2024-12-13 | decay | -0.4 | 9.2 | E207 silent |
| E208 2024-12-20 | decay | -0.4 | 8.8 | E208 silent |
| E209 2025-01-04 | decay | -0.4 | 8.5 | E209 silent |
| E210 2025-01-11 | decay | -0.3 | 8.1 | E210 silent |
| E211 2025-01-18 | decay | -0.3 | 7.8 | E211 silent |
| E212 2025-01-25 | decay | -0.3 | 7.5 | E212 silent |
| E213 2025-01-31 | decay | -0.3 | 7.2 | E213 silent |
| E214 2025-02-07 | decay | -0.3 | 6.9 | E214 silent |
| E215 2025-02-15 | decay | -0.3 | 6.6 | E215 silent |
| E216 2025-02-21 | decay | -0.3 | 6.4 | E216 silent |
| E217 2025-03-01 | decay | -0.3 | 6.1 | E217 silent |
| E218 2025-03-08 | decay | -0.2 | 5.9 | E218 silent |
| E219 2025-03-15 | decay | -0.2 | 5.6 | E219 silent |