📈 Life sciences stays funded through the bust - own the tools companies
Friedberg's carve-out from the tech downturn: the genomics revolution is transforming all of biology and human health, so life sciences stays very well funded and very competitive even as software compensation, benefits and hiring deflate. The physical constraint is the tell - Bay Area lab space is more expensive than it has ever been because of a total dearth of build-out - and the listed way to play it is not the primary market but the tools companies benefiting from continued demand and growth in spending on the category.
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2022-10-01 → 2023-10-01 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG TMO (primary play). TMO fell 3.0% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -3.0% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +18.4% → α = -3.0 − (+18.4) = -21.4% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Friedberg
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2022-10-01)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | TMO | stock | PRIMARY | largest life-science tools and lab-equipment vendor - the toll booth on research spend |
| ▲ LONG | DHR | stock | adjacent | Cytiva/Beckman bioprocessing and lab tools exposure |
| ▲ LONG | ILMN | stock | adjacent | sequencing instruments, the genomics revolution Friedberg names |
Mention log
“And by the way, there's a lot of public companies to invest in, not on the primary basis, but that are tools companies that are benefiting greatly from the continued demand and growth in spending in that category.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -14.5 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E98 2022-10-01 | init | +17.3 | 17.3 | E98 born by Friedberg (sentiment x2) [w=0.87] |
| E99 2022-10-07 | decay | -0.7 | 16.6 | E99 silent |
| E100 2022-10-14 | decay | -0.7 | 16.0 | E100 silent |
| E101 2022-10-22 | decay | -0.6 | 15.3 | E101 silent |
| E102 2022-10-29 | decay | -0.6 | 14.7 | E102 silent |
| E103 2022-11-05 | decay | -0.6 | 14.1 | E103 silent |
| E105 2022-11-19 | decay | -0.6 | 13.6 | E105 silent |
| E106 2022-12-03 | decay | -0.5 | 13.0 | E106 silent |
| E107 2022-12-10 | decay | -0.5 | 12.5 | E107 silent |
| E108 2022-12-16 | decay | -0.5 | 12.0 | E108 silent |
| E109 2022-12-24 | decay | -0.5 | 11.5 | E109 silent |
| E110 2023-01-06 | decay | -0.5 | 11.1 | E110 silent |
| E111 2023-01-13 | decay | -0.4 | 10.6 | E111 silent |
| E112 2023-01-20 | decay | -0.4 | 10.2 | E112 silent |
| E113 2023-01-27 | decay | -0.4 | 9.8 | E113 silent |
| E114 2023-02-04 | decay | -0.4 | 9.4 | E114 silent |
| E115 2023-02-11 | decay | -0.4 | 9.0 | E115 silent |
| E116 2023-02-17 | decay | -0.4 | 8.7 | E116 silent |
| E118 2023-03-03 | decay | -0.3 | 8.3 | E118 silent |
| E119 2023-03-11 | decay | -0.3 | 8.0 | E119 silent |
| E120 2023-03-17 | decay | -0.3 | 7.7 | E120 silent |
| E121 2023-03-24 | decay | -0.3 | 7.4 | E121 silent |
| E122 2023-03-31 | decay | -0.3 | 7.1 | E122 silent |
| E123 2023-04-07 | decay | -0.3 | 6.8 | E123 silent |
| E124 2023-04-14 | decay | -0.3 | 6.5 | E124 silent |
| E125 2023-04-21 | decay | -0.3 | 6.2 | E125 silent |
| E126 2023-04-28 | decay | -0.2 | 6.0 | E126 silent |
| E128 2023-05-12 | decay | -0.2 | 5.8 | E128 silent |
| E129 2023-05-19 | decay | -0.2 | 5.5 | E129 silent |
| E130 2023-05-26 | decay | -0.2 | 5.3 | E130 silent |
| E131 2023-06-02 | decay | -0.2 | 5.1 | E131 silent |
| E132 2023-06-10 | decay | -0.2 | 4.9 | E132 silent |
| E133 2023-06-16 | decay | -0.2 | 4.7 | E133 silent |
| E134 2023-06-24 | decay | -0.2 | 4.5 | E134 silent |
| E135 2023-07-01 | decay | -0.2 | 4.3 | E135 silent |
| E136 2023-07-09 | decay | -0.2 | 4.2 | E136 silent |
| E137 2023-07-14 | decay | -0.2 | 4.0 | E137 silent |
| E139 2023-07-27 | decay | -0.2 | 3.8 | E139 silent |
| E140 2023-08-04 | decay | -0.2 | 3.7 | E140 silent |
| E141 2023-08-11 | decay | -0.1 | 3.5 | E141 silent |
| E142 2023-08-18 | decay | -0.1 | 3.4 | E142 silent |
| E143 2023-08-25 | decay | -0.1 | 3.3 | E143 silent |
| E144 2023-09-01 | decay | -0.1 | 3.1 | E144 silent |
| E146 2023-09-22 | decay | -0.1 | 3.0 | E146 silent |
| E147 2023-09-29 | decay | -0.1 | 2.9 | E147 silent |