📈 Asset-light mega-cap software is the inflation hedge

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E53 (2021-10-30) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:02:41 SUPPORT

“they basically went long Google and Microsoft, and they shorted Apple, Amazon and Facebook against it. ... And I asked them why, and they said, it's the best inflation hedge we could come up with at massive scale that could work in a way where we're long growth, but we're hedged where the types of supply constraints that could come in and kick us in the ass would never affect Microsoft and Google the same way that it would affect Apple and Amazon”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E54 (2021-11-06) · positioning · strength 3 ▶ 7:47 SUPPORT · horizon 48mo

“I'm still long Microsoft and Google and short the rest of Big Tech. So I'm fine with it. ... Meaning you can very comfortably short Apple, Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and be long Microsoft, Google. So as a spread trade, it's the best risk parity trade on the internet right now. ... when I tweeted that tweet out, to complete the picture, I was actually long something against my proposed short. And I put it on in pretty meaningful leverage. And it's worked out really well because I was playing the spread. ... Another obvious one, so obvious is within big tech, figure out which ones you want to be long, which ones you want to be short. That's a spread trade that over the next four or five years, where if you expect a lot of market volatility, it makes sense to maybe put some of this kind of stuff on.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E60 (2021-12-23) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 30:42 SUPPORT

“I think the better trade is pick the one that you love in Fang and short the one that you hate in Fang. And if you get that right, you can make a lot of money pretty safe.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E66 (2022-02-05) · positioning · strength 3 ▶ 46:39 SUPPORT

“Well, I think the trade did what it was supposed to do, which is in a period of a lot of volatility. I saw an opportunity to, you know, just reduce my risk exposure. ... And the best way that I figured out how to do that was to do the spread trade. And so, you know, what I saw at the time was that there is one business above all others that I think is immune amongst big tech from any sort of real long-term issues, and that's Microsoft. ... The second safest company is Google. And the reason is that Google has the best of both worlds. ... And I just kind of wanted to create a spread between those who were the most inoculated to those that were the most at risk. As it turned out, Netflix puked it up. Facebook puked it up.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E67 (2022-02-12) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 58:58 SUPPORT · horizon 36mo

“I do think, however, that this big tech spread trade is moving from a trade to an investment, actually. And that I didn't expect. ... I think that there is the potential, a small potential, that that's going from a trade to an investment, actually, a sustainable trend that you can bank on for several years. ... I think that Microsoft and Google are far and away the winners, far and away the winners.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E74 (2022-04-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 6:03 SUPPORT

“What has actually happened under the hood is a dispersion, which means the crappy companies have gotten crushed and the good companies have gotten whacked, but not crushed, okay? And then when they rally, they rally disproportionately in favor of the good companies. ... Those that have a handle on their business, I think, are going to get really rewarded.”

Ryan Petersen (regular guest ×1.0) equities w=1.17 · n=6 · E82 (2022-05-24) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 46:51 OPPOSE

“And coming back to the question about assets, is there a play here? Probably yes, because most of Wall Street has been trained. They've gone to all the same business schools, and everybody's been trained. Assets are terrible. Get them off your books. Don't carry them. ... It's still a trend, and almost everywhere, until somebody like TSMC comes along and says, you know what, you don't want assets, Intel, fine, we'll build the fabs. ... And now they're a $400 billion company because they're willing to have assets on the books.”

Jason equities w=0.97 · n=105 · E82 (2022-05-24) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 44:05 OPPOSE · horizon 120mo

“So is there a big capex play here, Ryan, for the next decade? ... Like a big capital equipment, hard asset play? ... This is what happened with oil and gas going into last year. ... And everyone missed it.”

Sacks equities w=0.89 · n=96 · E82 (2022-05-24) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 47:58 OPPOSE

“The thing that I think we need to change is like the capital people that control the money flows do need to have a little bit more of an open mind. Sure, it's true that you'd love a 90% gross margin business, but it is also true in the TSMC case, you'd rather have a business doing 20% on $500 billion.”