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Sacks oppose ×1 ▼ on 🌍 Payroll revisions expose an economy materially weaker than the headline data E237 · 2025-08-01 ▶ 1:06:40

obviously the 3% number is way ahead of expectations. It's a fantastic number. It just feels like everything is humming on all cylinders here.

Jason oppose ×1 ▼ on 🌍 Payroll revisions expose an economy materially weaker than the headline data E236 · 2025-07-19 ▶ 8:16

There's a lot of spending in there, as we've talked about here, putting that aside, it feels like the economy is in really great shape.

Chamath oppose ×3 ▼ on 🌍 Payroll revisions expose an economy materially weaker than the headline data E231 · 2025-06-13 ▶ 59:25

And what I was noticing was that we were going to come in, I said, in the low threes. And I think, you know, if Atlanta Fed is right, I don't think they are, but I think it's going to be in the low to mid threes. It's going to be meaningfully greater than what people are expecting.

on the hard data, the part that's most surprising is that consumers have very weak sentiment, but in the meantime, consumer spending is remarkably resilient.

And it's a really important point also that we should mention, is that the last four years, the economy has looked OK. But part of that is because government's been hiring like mad.

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🌍 Payroll revisions expose an economy materially weaker than the headline data E217 · 2025-03-01 ▶ 1:07:46

I am surprised that we don't see even more dramatic revisions. And that probably again is like errors on top of errors. I really don't trust, like, you know, you showed the GDP data or you showed the unemployment rate, Jason?

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🌍 Payroll revisions expose an economy materially weaker than the headline data E216 · 2025-02-21 ▶ 15:19

One of the big things that we've talked about is how many backward revisions there are to everything from non-farm payrolls to GDP, that they've become so unreliable.

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🌍 Payroll revisions expose an economy materially weaker than the headline data E205 · 2024-11-23 ▶ 14:58

And we talked about this before, where this is also a problem at the federal level when you look at GDP and job growth, because it looks like a lot of these jobs are actually fake, manufactured, government-type jobs.

Friedberg oppose ×2 ▼ on 🌍 Payroll revisions expose an economy materially weaker than the headline data E202 · 2024-11-01 ▶ 7:06

I do think that that's one big turnaround that's happened in the last 90 days, which is really, I think, a big surprise to a lot of folks is just how robust things are

Chamath support ×3 ▼ on 🌍 Payroll revisions expose an economy materially weaker than the headline data E202 · 2024-11-01 ▶ 11:44

So just to be clear about what's happening, 85% of this quarter's GDP was induced by the government.

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🌍 Payroll revisions expose an economy materially weaker than the headline data E193 · 2024-08-23 ▶ 6:47

Yeah, I mean, I think the economy is a lot slower than what people thought

Sacks support ×3 ▼ on 🌍 Payroll revisions expose an economy materially weaker than the headline data E193 · 2024-08-23 ▶ 3:46

I predicted this would happen, and I didn't know exactly how we would get the correction, but now it's come out. By the way, it's not just this 818,000 jobs. If you look at the last 12 months and out of all the restatements, it's been something like 1.2 million.

Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 Junk debt is 2023's most pressured asset class E136 · 2023-07-09 ▶ 42:52

To your point, David, a lot of these companies will have to thread a needle because if rates don't go down materially in the next 18 to 24 months, these folks are going to be paying rates that they cannot bear.

Chamath support ×3 ▼ on 🏦 Junk debt is 2023's most pressured asset class E121 · 2023-03-24 ▶ 18:57

So this credit bubble is here and it's being manifested right now in these very sophisticated parts of the market. Eventually, they'll ripple to the broader economy at large.

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 Junk debt is 2023's most pressured asset class E110 · 2023-01-06 ▶ 1:08:11

probably the biggest asset class that is going to get pressured is going to be junk debt. ... variable rate loans, when rates are at five and six percent, ... 11, 12, 13, 14 percent, coupons, a bunch of companies will have trouble meeting their debt obligations and

Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 🏦 Own the debt, not the equity, of the tech survivors E103 · 2022-11-05 ▶ 34:09

it's like if you're willing to take tech risk, then why wouldn't you buy a bond at 10%? Meaning the equity always has to beat that threshold return.

Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🏦 Own the debt, not the equity, of the tech survivors E103 · 2022-11-05 ▶ 30:05

So David, to your point, the current three-month T-bill rate is 4%. You know, you can buy munis now between 4% and 5% that are triple tax advantaged, right? You can buy high quality corporate bonds that are 6%, 7%, 8%.

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🏦 Levered pension unwind spills into US credit E100 · 2022-10-14 ▶ 1:06:56

If I was a betting man, I spent the, I would guess that the next half a trillion to a trillion dollars that is spent in Western world economies will be to subsidize something that's broken internally inside of one of our countries, whether it's the UK pension system or whether it's the high yield credit markets and it will not be to finance military adventurism in Russia.

Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 🏦 Own the debt, not the equity, of the tech survivors E85 · 2022-06-30 ▶ 1:03:24

I've transitioned most of my public markets time to focus on debt. ... But what is really juicy is the few companies that you think will survive and specifically making sure you're protected in the capital structure, which means to own the debt because the debt is always senior to the equity.

Chamath oppose ×3 ▼ on 🌍 Sanctions blow a hidden hole in leveraged counterparty books E71 · 2022-03-05 ▶ 17:28

I think this is a complete red herring. ... the global total market cap of all of these businesses is meaningfully different than the amount of total capex that these guys represent. And in as much as you are going to take the equity values of certain of these companies to zero, it's in the grand scheme of things, not that much equity value.

Friedberg support ×3 ▼ on 🌍 Sanctions blow a hidden hole in leveraged counterparty books E71 · 2022-03-05 ▶ 17:56

Forget about the equity value. Just think about the economic repercussions where there is leveraged positions and swaps and derivatives in place, counterparty swaps in place with a lot of these companies that are now going to default. And we're not going to know that till the end of this month when everything has to settle and no one's going to be able to make their payments. ... The shock to the system, I don't think, has yet been realized. And I think we'll know at the end of this month when books close what things actually do to businesses, to swap agreements, to trades