🏦 Junk debt is 2023's most pressured asset class

⚖ Why this verdict

fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set

1. Window: 2023-01-06 → 2024-01-06 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
2. The call: ▼ SHORT HYG (primary play). HYG rose 7.7% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -7.7% (the call lost money).
3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +22.4% → α = -7.7 − (+22.4) = -30.1% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
   Stock-selection read: +14.7% — did HYG move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
4. Rule fired:
   · HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5

   · PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0

   ▶ MISS — everything else
5. Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Friedberg

each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Chamath w=0.88

2 scoring events · 77% of moves

+46.9 → net +46.9

Friedberg w=0.79

1 scoring event · 23% of moves

+13.9 → net +13.9

⏳ decay drained -44.6 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one