📈 Uber-Expedia super-app cross-sell doesn't pencil

⚖ Why this result

fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set

1. Window: 2024-10-18 → 2025-10-18 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
2. The call: ▼ SHORT EXPE (primary play). EXPE rose 35.4% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = -35.4% (the call lost money).
3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +15.0% → vs SPY = -35.4 − (+15.0) = -50.5% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
   Direction-only read: -20.4% — did EXPE move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
4. Rule fired:
   · RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+

   · HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all

   ▶ WRONG — everything else
5. Credit: supporters of a WRONG earn 0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath, Sacks | opposed: Friedberg, Jason

each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Chamath 42%

1 scoring event · 48% of moves

+42.0 → net +42.0

Sacks 44%

1 scoring event · 22% of moves

+19.5 → net +19.5

Friedberg 43%

1 scoring event · 16% of moves

+0.0 / -14.4 → net -14.4

Jason 49%

1 scoring event · 14% of moves

+0.0 / -12.0 → net -12.0

⏳ decay drained -29.8 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one