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📈 Legacy journalism is obsolete - the opinion economy takes the audience

Chamath: journalism is dead and irrelevant because facts are known instantaneously on Twitter and the internet, so the scarce good is context and interpretation and the people formerly called journalists are now opinion makers whose compensation is a function of their follower count. Sacks: mainstream media is the most ideologized it has ever been and totally devoid of substance, which is why audiences seek out and pay for podcasts and Substacks instead. Legacy publishers lose audience and pricing power to independent creators. Jason takes the other side, arguing a small but real percentage of investigative journalism still exists.

0 CONVICTION
peaked 83.4 GREEN
WATCH
band
▼ SHORT NYT
expression · bearish equities
MISS
outcome · R -46.8% · α -69.3%
2023-10-14
window closed

⚖ Why this verdict

fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set

  1. Window: 2022-10-14 → 2023-10-14 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
  2. The call: ▼ SHORT NYT (primary play). NYT rose 46.8% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -46.8% (the call lost money).
  3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +22.6%α = -46.8 − (+22.6) = -69.3% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
    Stock-selection read: -24.2% — did NYT move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
  4. Rule fired:
    · HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5
    · PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0
    ▶ MISS — everything else
  5. Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Brad Gerstner, Chamath, Friedberg, Jason, Sacks

Conviction timeline

bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15

Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2022-10-14)

Plays

expressionsymbolkindrelevancerationale
▼ SHORT NYTstock PRIMARY the named-in-argument legacy publisher and the cleanest listed expression of the thesis
▼ SHORT NWSAstock adjacent Wall Street Journal parent, the other publisher named in the exchange
▼ SHORT SPOTstock adjacent long side — the listed aggregator of independent audio creators, including Rogan whom Jason names (via merged idea independent-media-disrupts-legacy-press-2022)

Mention log

Chamath
Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E100 (2022-10-14) · sentiment · strength 3 ▶ 15:29 SUPPORT
“It's irrelevant. And I'll tell you why. Because the facts are known instantaneously on Twitter and through the Internet. We don't need people to relay facts. We need people to wrap facts in context and allow us to come to our own conclusions. That's why I think journalism isn't what it used to be.”
Sacks
Sacks equities w=0.89 · n=96 · E100 (2022-10-14) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 18:53 SUPPORT
“I think the reason why people seek out our podcasts and other podcasts and substacks is and sort of this kind of independent journalism and are willing to pay for it is because the mainstream media has become totally devoid of substance. It's as partisan and ideologized as it's ever been.”
Jason
Jason equities w=0.97 · n=105 · E100 (2022-10-14) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 16:52 OPPOSE
“I'm not, and I'm not. I said there's a range here. It's a small percentage, but there's still random acts of great journalism.”
Friedberg
Friedberg equities w=0.87 · n=120 · E106 (2022-12-03) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 50:52 SUPPORT
“We saw it happen with movies, and we've seen this disruption happen across all of these other media classes. Journalism and what we call the press is very likely going to be kind of that next layer of disruption.”
Jason
Jason equities w=0.97 · n=105 · E106 (2022-12-03) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 48:51 SUPPORT
“And this is why independent media, whether it's substacks, whether it's call-in shows, whether it's All-In podcasts or other podcasts, Joe Rogan, Sam Harris, whoever it is, independent voices are now what consumers are seeking out because they can sense the bias.”
Sacks
Sacks equities w=0.89 · n=96 · E106 (2022-12-03) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 53:00 SUPPORT
“And we do feel like the media has become a very unreliable narrator. There is too much bias and sloppiness. Not all of it is agenda. Some of it's just pure sloppiness. And there's no reason why we shouldn't go direct. And people want to hear from us.”
Chamath
Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E106 (2022-12-03) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 45:20 SUPPORT
“The press is so incompetent on this. The Twitter spaces yesterday did a better job of trying to ask questions and getting to the truth than a single journalist has done. Or the collective body of all of journalists.”
Sacks
Sacks equities w=0.89 · n=96 · E109 (2022-12-24) · sentiment · strength 3 ▶ 2:04:18 SUPPORT
“Yeah, I would say best trend is the growing realization that the corporate media is failing. It does not tell the truth. It has an agenda. More and more people are opting out of it and going with independent media.”
Chamath
Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E109 (2022-12-24) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:40:56 SUPPORT
“Well, if you're getting 10 times more distribution than the New York Times, you know what's going to happen is people will stop listening and reading.”
Friedberg
Friedberg equities w=0.87 · n=120 · E115 (2023-02-11) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:24:02 SUPPORT
“That you could see the number of content sites offering self-help advice and how to do this and how to do that, 95% of them go away because all of that work gets aggregated and synthesized and presented in a really simple, easy user interface that makes them completely oblivious.”
Sacks
Sacks equities w=0.89 · n=96 · E115 (2023-02-11) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:27:25 SUPPORT
“The people who need to be compensated, J Cal, if they don't get what they want, they may just go away, but there'll be 10 times or a hundred times more people waiting at least to replace them.”
Jason
Jason equities w=0.97 · n=105 · E116 (2023-02-17) · sentiment · strength 3 ▶ 15:01 SUPPORT
“But now it's become, I think, where a lot of Americans are by default saying, let me read the substacks, TikToks and Twitter before I trust the New York Times.”
Sacks
Sacks equities w=0.89 · n=96 · E116 (2023-02-17) · sentiment · strength 3 ▶ 23:25 SUPPORT
“So I think this is partly a media story where the media, quite simply, is agenda driven. And if a true disaster happens that doesn't fit with their agenda, they're simply going to ignore it.”
Sacks
Sacks equities w=0.89 · n=96 · E118 (2023-03-03) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:54:50 SUPPORT
“I personally don't think we should promote any stories by the mainstream media. We have no idea whether it's true or not.”
Chamath
Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E124 (2023-04-14) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:19:33 SUPPORT
“I used to think that media had an agenda. I actually now think that they don't particularly have an agenda other than to be relevant because they see waning relevance.”
Chamath
Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E125 (2023-04-21) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 18:00 SUPPORT
“When you look back on something as meaningful as this, it'll just make them even less credible. That's what that's unfortunately what they're doing to themselves is shooting themselves in the foot.”
Sacks
Sacks equities w=0.89 · n=96 · E125 (2023-04-21) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 14:59 SUPPORT
“And just the point I was making is that when I was reading the mainstream media coverage of this, it was almost like ghoulish. It was like a type of glee.”
Jason
Jason equities w=0.97 · n=105 · E125 (2023-04-21) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 38:05 OPPOSE
“There is a roadmap for the press to learn from this and to get better, right?”
Chamath
Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E130 (2023-05-26) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 7:11 SUPPORT
“Instead, what this was, was a really seminal moment, I think, in further divorcing ourselves away from the mainstream media.”
Sacks
Sacks equities w=0.89 · n=96 · E130 (2023-05-26) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 13:10 SUPPORT
“So you have a hysterical overreaction by the traditional media, and they simply don't like, A, that Elon is dis-remediating them by letting the politicians go direct, and then, B, he's restored the platform to be a free speech platform.”
Friedberg
Friedberg equities w=0.87 · n=120 · E130 (2023-05-26) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 13:44 SUPPORT
“And I think one of the greatest things that's happening right now that could be a great benefit for this modern democracy is the sort of stuff that we've been doing on our podcast and RFK coming on board like last week and what Sacks did with Twitter.”
Sacks
Sacks equities w=0.89 · n=96 · E132 (2023-06-10) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:00:26 SUPPORT
“Arguably it's more distribution, it's almost certainly more distribution than he got through Fox.”
Jason
Jason equities w=0.97 · n=105 · E132 (2023-06-10) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:01:33 SUPPORT
“Daily Wire is the model. I mean, they have got well over a hundred million in revenue, I understand, and they have a massive subscription business. So there's a clear path there.”
Sacks
Sacks equities w=0.89 · n=96 · E134 (2023-06-24) · sentiment · strength 3 ▶ 1:04:24 SUPPORT
“The mainstream media does not perform the function that you're describing anymore. They act as the bodyguard for the elite, for the establishment.”
Jason
Jason equities w=0.97 · n=105 · E134 (2023-06-24) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:04:35 OPPOSE
“Not exactly true. They have actually done incredible reporting, but there is a group of them which is towing the party line because you have the New York Times and their expose on the Taxi Commission.”
Brad Gerstner
Brad Gerstner (regular guest ×1.0) equities w=0.95 · n=22 · E134 (2023-06-24) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:00:03 SUPPORT
“The revolution going on in this country, which is fantastic from my perspective, is that there is no longer a monopolistic control over the discussion. And that's why this podcast and this friendship and the conversation we all had here is resonating with people because they also want to hear all the different sides, because most people are capable, are way smarter than the elites on the coast think.”
Jason
Jason equities w=0.97 · n=105 · E142 (2023-08-18) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 55:58 SUPPORT
“this is the media business losing its business model and Google and Facebook taking all their revenue and Craigslist and Facebook, you know, Marketplace taking all their revenue.”
Sacks
Sacks equities w=0.89 · n=96 · E147 (2023-09-29) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 56:29 SUPPORT
“Now, the New York Times is framing this as a problem because it was a propaganda coup for Putin. And presumably it was. But I think it's a problem because it's a problem, not because of just the PR optics of it.”
CO
Coleman Hughes (guest ×0.5) no equities track record · E147 (2023-09-29) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 25:33 SUPPORT
“Someone like Barry Weiss, who used to be at The New York Times, her point of view on it is, look, you just got to start your own institutions.”

Who built this conviction

each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Sacks
Sacks w=0.89
11 scoring events · 32% of moves
+64.2 → net +64.2
Jason
Jason w=0.97
7 scoring events · 29% of moves
+26.0 / -32.6 → net -6.6
Chamath
Chamath w=0.84
6 scoring events · 24% of moves
+48.5 → net +48.5
Friedberg
Friedberg w=0.87
3 scoring events · 10% of moves
+21.2 → net +21.2
Brad Gerstner
Brad Gerstner w=0.95 regular guest ×1.0
1 scoring event · 3% of moves
+5.4 → net +5.4
CO
Coleman Hughes guest ×0.5
1 scoring event · 2% of moves
+5.0 → net +5.0

⏳ decay drained -77.3 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one

Score events

episodekindΔafternote
E100 2022-10-14 init +20.1 20.1 E100 born by Chamath (sentiment x3) [w=0.84]
E100 2022-10-14 oppose -11.7 8.4 E100 Jason opposes x2 [w=0.97]
E100 2022-10-14 reinforce +18.2 26.7 E100 Sacks support x2 (new voice) [w=0.89]
E101 2022-10-22 decay -1.1 25.6 E101 silent
E102 2022-10-29 decay -1.0 24.6 E102 silent
E103 2022-11-05 decay -1.0 23.6 E103 silent
E105 2022-11-19 decay -0.9 22.7 E105 silent
E106 2022-12-03 reinforce +9.7 32.4 E106 Chamath support x2 [w=0.84]
E106 2022-12-03 reinforce +9.9 42.2 E106 Jason support x2 (flipped from oppose) [w=0.97]
E106 2022-12-03 reinforce +11.3 53.5 E106 Friedberg support x2 (new voice) [w=0.87]
E106 2022-12-03 reinforce +6.2 59.7 E106 Sacks support x2 [w=0.89]
E107 2022-12-10 decay -2.4 57.3 E107 silent
E108 2022-12-16 decay -2.3 55.0 E108 silent
E109 2022-12-24 reinforce +5.7 60.6 E109 Chamath support x2 [w=0.84]
E109 2022-12-24 reinforce +6.3 66.9 E109 Sacks support x3 [w=0.89]
E110 2023-01-06 decay -2.7 64.2 E110 silent
E111 2023-01-13 decay -2.6 61.7 E111 silent
E112 2023-01-20 decay -2.5 59.2 E112 silent
E113 2023-01-27 decay -2.4 56.8 E113 silent
E114 2023-02-04 decay -2.3 54.6 E114 silent
E115 2023-02-11 reinforce +5.9 60.5 E115 Friedberg support x2 [w=0.87]
E115 2023-02-11 reinforce +5.2 65.7 E115 Sacks support x2 [w=0.89]
E116 2023-02-17 reinforce +6.0 71.7 E116 Jason support x3 [w=0.97]
E116 2023-02-17 reinforce +4.5 76.2 E116 Sacks support x3 [w=0.89]
E118 2023-03-03 reinforce +2.5 78.7 E118 Sacks support x1 [w=0.89]
E119 2023-03-11 decay -3.1 75.6 E119 silent
E120 2023-03-17 decay -3.0 72.6 E120 silent
E121 2023-03-24 decay -2.9 69.7 E121 silent
E122 2023-03-31 decay -2.8 66.9 E122 silent
E123 2023-04-07 decay -2.7 64.2 E123 silent
E124 2023-04-14 reinforce +4.5 68.7 E124 Chamath support x2 [w=0.84]
E125 2023-04-21 reinforce +4.2 72.9 E125 Sacks support x2 [w=0.89]
E125 2023-04-21 reinforce +3.4 76.3 E125 Chamath support x2 [w=0.84]
E125 2023-04-21 oppose -9.3 66.9 E125 Jason opposes x1 [w=0.97]
E126 2023-04-28 decay -2.7 64.3 E126 silent
E128 2023-05-12 decay -2.6 61.7 E128 silent
E129 2023-05-19 decay -2.5 59.2 E129 silent
E130 2023-05-26 reinforce +5.1 64.4 E130 Chamath support x2 [w=0.84]
E130 2023-05-26 reinforce +4.7 69.1 E130 Sacks support x2 [w=0.89]
E130 2023-05-26 reinforce +4.0 73.1 E130 Friedberg support x2 [w=0.87]
E131 2023-06-02 decay -2.9 70.2 E131 silent
E132 2023-06-10 reinforce +4.0 74.1 E132 Sacks support x2 [w=0.89]
E132 2023-06-10 reinforce +3.8 77.9 E132 Jason support x2 (flipped from oppose) [w=0.97]
E133 2023-06-16 decay -3.1 74.8 E133 silent
E134 2023-06-24 reinforce +5.4 80.2 E134 Brad Gerstner support x2 (new voice) [w=0.95]
E134 2023-06-24 reinforce +3.2 83.4 E134 Sacks support x3 [w=0.89]
E134 2023-06-24 oppose -11.7 71.7 E134 Jason opposes x2 [w=0.97]
E135 2023-07-01 decay -2.9 68.8 E135 silent
E136 2023-07-09 decay -2.8 66.1 E136 silent
E137 2023-07-14 decay -2.6 63.4 E137 silent
E139 2023-07-27 decay -2.5 60.9 E139 silent
E140 2023-08-04 decay -2.4 58.5 E140 silent
E141 2023-08-11 decay -2.3 56.1 E141 silent
E142 2023-08-18 reinforce +6.4 62.5 E142 Jason support x2 (flipped from oppose) [w=0.97]
E143 2023-08-25 decay -2.5 60.0 E143 silent
E144 2023-09-01 decay -2.4 57.6 E144 silent
E146 2023-09-22 decay -2.3 55.3 E146 silent
E147 2023-09-29 reinforce +5.0 60.3 E147 Coleman Hughes support x2 (new voice) [w=0.50]
E147 2023-09-29 reinforce +5.3 65.6 E147 Sacks support x2 [w=0.89]
E148 2023-10-07 decay -2.6 63.0 E148 silent
E149 2023-10-13 decay -2.5 60.5 E149 silent