📈 Record Atlantic sea-surface temperatures drive the biggest hurricane season ever

⚖ Why this verdict

fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set

1. Window: 2023-07-14 → 2024-07-14 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
2. The call: ▼ SHORT KIE (primary play). KIE rose 27.7% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -27.7% (the call lost money).
3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +26.4% → α = -27.7 − (+26.4) = -54.1% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
   Stock-selection read: -1.3% — did KIE move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
4. Rule fired:
   · HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5

   · PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0

   ▶ MISS — everything else
5. Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Friedberg

each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Friedberg w=0.87

2 scoring events · 100% of moves

+35.3 → net +35.3

⏳ decay drained -28.4 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one