🤖 OpenAI keeps the consumer AI lead through a developer network effect

Sacks tech 39% · n=53 · E213 (2025-01-31) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 47:00 SUPPORT POLICY-ADJACENT

“You guys are taking a very strong point of view that open source is definitely going to win, that the leading model companies are all going to get commoditized, and therefore, there'll be no return on capital and basically continue to innovate on the frontier. I'm not sure that's true. ... But I think it's a little premature to conclude that there's no reward for being at the frontier.”

Jason tech 53% · n=56 · E213 (2025-01-31) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 32:56 OPPOSE

“Yeah, Microsoft is hosting their version of R1, which means they are actively subverting their partner, OpenAI, and pushing people to a cheaper model.”

Jason tech 53% · n=56 · E212 (2025-01-25) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:16:18 OPPOSE

“So when I use Gemini or XAI and ChatGPT, and I use them all daily and Claude, the difference between the products right now is really narrow. ... So, anyway, I think it's still anybody's, I think it's anybody's game right now.”

Thomas Laffont (regular guest ×1.0) tech 58% · n=6 · E212 (2025-01-25) · positioning · strength 3 ▶ 1:13:26 SUPPORT

“You guys mentioned we do own some OpenAI. I am bullish on OpenAI, which I guess is now a counter against the grain kind of view. ... It really is a dominant kind of franchise, right? It is maintaining 80% plus market share.”

Aaron Levie (regular guest ×1.0) tech 67% · n=6 · E208 (2024-12-20) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:34:38 SUPPORT

“I don't think you want to bet against Sam and Greg.”

Jason tech 53% · n=56 · E208 (2024-12-20) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:33:03 OPPOSE · horizon 36mo

“I think we've hit peak OpenAI in the market. I think they're going to be the number three or four player. I think Gemini, Meta and XAI are going to lead them. If we're sitting here in three years, I think OpenAI is number three, four or five, not one or two.”

Chamath tech 45% · n=84 · E208 (2024-12-20) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 58:57 OPPOSE

“What you notice is the market share of OpenAI has changed pretty meaningfully from half to about a third. And what you see is Anthropic doubled, Meta roughly staying the same, Google picking up steam”

Gavin Baker (regular guest ×1.0) tech 73% · n=13 · E206 (2024-12-07) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:00:43 OPPOSE · horizon 3mo

“Grok 3 should take the lead if scaling laws hold in January or February. I do think a lot of talent has left OpenAI”

Sacks tech 39% · n=53 · E199 (2024-10-11) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 44:47 SUPPORT

“But it is true that Google is facing the most existential threat to its search monopoly, and it is a monopoly in the form of open AI at this point in time.”

Jason tech 53% · n=56 · E199 (2024-10-11) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 44:04 SUPPORT

“I have started now, and I know many people are starting their search journey on Claude and ChatGPT every day. I'm doing 30, 40, 50 queries and follow ups per day. I force my entire team to do that as well.”

Mark Cuban (guest ×0.5) no tech track record · E198 (2024-10-03) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 2:00:06 OPPOSE

“There's nothing that says that open AI is going to win. Nothing at all. And so I don't feel bad about what they're doing.”

Chamath tech 45% · n=84 · E197 (2024-09-27) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 13:05 OPPOSE

“I have not in my time in Silicon Valley ever seen a company that's supposedly on such a straight line to a rocket ship have so much high-level churn.”

Sacks tech 39% · n=53 · E197 (2024-09-27) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 11:08 SUPPORT

“I think there's no question that OpenAI is the leader of the pack. It has the most advanced AI models. It's got the best developer ecosystem, the best APIs, it keeps rolling out new products.”

Sacks tech 39% · n=53 · E187 (2024-07-12) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 34:53 SUPPORT

“you already have a very powerful application in the form of this semantic search, which OpenAI is currently dominating.”

Sacks tech 39% · n=53 · E185 (2024-06-29) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 47:01 SUPPORT

“OpenAI is one of the leading companies of the AI wave”

Chamath tech 45% · n=84 · E185 (2024-06-29) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 43:38 OPPOSE

“whoever wins in the first inning usually isn't the one that's winning by the ninth inning. And so I would encourage anybody that's winning right now to monetize, get secondaries, take money off the table as fast as possible because the future is unknown”

Chamath tech 45% · n=84 · E183 (2024-06-14) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 55:39 OPPOSE

“the traffic in the United States is down about 25, 26% since the end of the school year, which I think reinforces this belief that ChatGPT has definitely over indexed in that young people's cohort”

Sacks tech 39% · n=53 · E183 (2024-06-14) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 53:35 REVERSAL

“the other LLMs are catching up. If Gemini ever gets good enough or when Grok gets to the next level, am I going to stick with that $20 a month plan? I'm not sure.”

Chamath tech 45% · n=84 · E180 (2024-05-24) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 6:38 SUPPORT

“I think it's a very rational organization. They're technically ahead of everybody else. A lot of people want to put in money at crazy prices.”

Sacks tech 39% · n=53 · E179 (2024-05-17) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 23:21 SUPPORT

“And probably the way they do that is by monetizing all the apps that are built on top of it. And I think that in that sense, GPT-4O is a really important innovation.”

Jason tech 53% · n=56 · E179 (2024-05-17) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 21:50 OPPOSE

“Chachi BT Web Visits, as you can see, have plateaued. This data is similar web. I would agree with you, Chamath. It seems like the use cases and the looky-loos who are just trying this software, because they heard about it, they've gone away, and then we have to find actual use cases.”

Chamath tech 45% · n=84 · E179 (2024-05-17) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 20:23 OPPOSE · horizon 24mo

“So I think where we are is probably within two years of where the basic building blocks are standardized. And then I think the real businesses get built. So I will maintain my perspective here, which is the quote unquote Facebook of AI has yet to be created.”

Chamath tech 45% · n=84 · E178 (2024-05-10) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:05:46 OPPOSE

“I think that these guys are going to be one of the four major companies that matter in this whole space. I think that that's clear. I think what's still unclear is where is the economics going to be?”

Sam Altman (guest ×0.5) no tech track record · E178 (2024-05-10) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:02:58 SUPPORT

“you had OpenAI say we're going to basically put the whole company and work together to make GPT-4. And that was unimaginable for how to run an AI research lab. But it is, I think, what works.”

Chamath tech 45% · n=84 · E165 (2024-02-09) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 56:54 OPPOSE · horizon 18mo

“OpenAI is three different businesses. OpenAI has a closed model that's trained on the open Internet. I think economically it's going to be very hard to sustain that unless they start buying all number of apps so that they can get some fine tunes that they control that are proprietary to them... I think they're all going to converge to the same quality in the next probably 12 to 18 months.”

Sacks tech 39% · n=53 · E165 (2024-02-09) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 51:50 SUPPORT

“So you have a classic developer network effect where you've got OpenAI aggregating hundreds of millions of consumers because they perceive that chat GPT is the best. Then you've got developers wanting to reach that audience. So they build custom GPTs on the OpenAI platform. That actually gives chat GPT more capability. And that's something that open source can't easily catch up with.”