📈 Zantac carcinogen cover-up becomes a pharma liability reckoning

⚖ Why this verdict

fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set

1. Window: 2023-02-17 → 2024-02-17 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
2. The call: ▼ SHORT GSK (primary play). GSK rose 21.6% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -21.6% (the call lost money).
3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +24.5% → α = -21.6 − (+24.5) = -46.1% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
   Stock-selection read: +2.9% — did GSK move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
4. Rule fired:
   · HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5

   · PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0

   ▶ MISS — everything else
5. Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Friedberg

each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Chamath w=0.84

1 scoring event · 73% of moves

+29.3 → net +29.3

Friedberg w=0.87

1 scoring event · 27% of moves

+11.0 → net +11.0

⏳ decay drained -33.4 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one